After the release of the new nine articles last Friday, many people are wondering what will happen on Monday?
Some people say that it is going to rise sharply, a big bull market is coming, and it will hit 8,000 points in the future
Some people also say that they have to probe the bottom twice, so run quickly.
The public says that the public is reasonable, and the mother says that the mother is reasonable.
This matter is actually not complicated, someone must take advantage of the policy release to snipe A-shares, and on the other hand, the national team will spare no effort to show its muscles.
Monday's final game will most likely be dominated by the national team.
This time is fundamentally different from last year's stamp duty cut.
Let me first take a look at what snipers are, and then talk about why they are different this time.
1. Snipers are eyeing up
Since the second half of last year, there have always been people in A-shares who have been sniping accurately after the good news is issued, which is quite hurtful.
Over time, investors will develop a conditioned reflex, and they will run away when good news appears.
The leading big brother among the snipers may be foreign.
Northbound funds always flow out sharply against the backdrop of good news.
On Friday night, A50 futures and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index also fell, which also shows a certain attitude abroad, at least in their eyes, not to take the new country nine articles seriously.
Of course, not all foreign investors are snipers, and it is difficult for us to tell whether those snipers may have other purposes than the purpose of trading.
Anyway, there are always people who want us to die when we are sick.
The sharp discount of China's assets is not only very detrimental to economic recovery, but even increases the probability of financial risks.
There are snipers abroad, and traitors at home.
For example, many private placements and quants, their trading procedures are set to take advantage of the decline in a large number of stop-loss selling.
And it's likely that they'll also be short behind the northbound ass.
Over the weekend, didn't the regulator change the rules? The goal is likely to keep these traitors from following suit.
Please note that there are many policies in the nine articles that are not friendly to private placement and quantification.
Therefore, in the short term, they may have a liquidity shock. (That was it last week)
There are also quite a few ordinary investors among the traitors. Most of them have become pawns to be used by others.
Snipers often use rating reports, media, institutional forecasts, etc. to convey ghost stories to the market.
Many things would not have happened, but when public opinion triggers a change in expectations, they may come true. This is called "anticipation can be self-fulfilling".
When Soros sniped in Asia, he also used public opinion to scare away local investors and follow him to short.
The long black candlestick after last year's stamp duty cut, and the subsequent plunge in the stock market are still vivid. Ordinary investors are probably still apprehensive.
I thought to myself: I won't be fooled again this time.
In addition to the above factors, Iran's air strikes on Israel over the weekend have escalated the geopolitical conflict, which will increase the safe-haven demand for some funds.
But it's hard to predict. Sometimes the bad is good, but it is good.
2. Why is this time different?
First, the regulation is fully prepared
You can think about it, why is the new country nine not released in the market?
To put it bluntly, management is not sure how the market will react.
In case of a big black line response, isn't that a slap in the face?
The last stamp duty cut was announced on the afternoon of August 27, 2023, along with three other positives.
As a result, the No. 28 market was slapped in the face.
This is a hasty decision made by regulators.
Back then, I was still telling everyone that regulation had become a tactic, and that wasn't a good thing.
This time it was released immediately after the close of trading on Friday. Why?
First of all, he wants to leave enough time for the market to digest this news, after all, there is a lot of information, nine big articles!
Secondly, he also reserved ample time for himself to guide the market.
We have seen that after the State Council released the news, the major media immediately began to interpret it at length.
Ouch, I'll go, if it wasn't written in advance, who could be so fast?
Even the video was recorded, and the press conference was ready.
Moreover, not only did they do enough work in publicity, but they even chose the people who sacrificed the flag.
For the sake of Lixin, pull out the two major brokerages and cut off their heads. Then it also "corrected the law on the spot" some companies that violated the rules.
In the end, the details of some policy operations were immediately implemented, and the speed was beyond imagination.
Second, the national team is also ready
The last time the stamp duty was lowered, there was no national team protection, so there was no support for the market as soon as it fell.
But now there is a national team standing guard, holding unlimited bullets, and being able to change the rules to pull out the network cable.
Let's not talk about whether the market can go up, but as long as it doesn't want the market to fall, the market can't go down.
It is conceivable that the national team must be strictly controlled on Monday, and all the pressure will be eaten.
Third, some of the selling pressure has been released.
The State Council's document was written on April 4 and released on April 12.
Obviously, some of the selling pressure was released in advance.
Why else did the market fall so much last week?
And the big declines are mainly small and micro caps and theme stocks, because the new country nine is bearish for them.
In the future, they will continue to be bearish, especially the improvement of the delisting system, the wearing of ST if the dividend is not up to standard, the quantitative change of rules, and the increase in the difficulty of reducing holdings, etc., are all big killers for speculating on small garbage.
Fourth, a quarterly report helps
April is a special month. Annual reports and quarterly reports will be implemented one after another.
The supervision is likely to communicate with the listed company, know the good news of the performance in advance, and even say hello in advance about increasing dividends.
There is a performance release, which will make the policy twice the result with half the effort.
Fifth, Yang Ma accelerated the release of water
The most tacit cooperation may be Yang Ma.
Since April, the faucet of Yang Ma has suddenly been very large.
The interest rate on one-year certificates of deposit, which has been consolidating for more than a month, has fallen sharply.
With Yang Ma standing behind to provide food and grass, what else is there to be afraid of?
In fact, the national team is not lifting near the CSI 300 infinite cost line, in fact, it is waiting!
It wasn't until these days that the right place and people arrived, and then they switched from defense to offense.
Those who have studied the art of war know that sometimes, defense is the strongest offense.
In the end, it may be a surrender without a fight.
3. The future bull market will be different
Everyone is looking forward to the release of the new national nine, the stock market will usher in a mad bull like 07 and 15.
However, this time the national nine articles are very different from the past.
The management is very determined to build the stock market into a reservoir of wealth for residents, so it wants a slow cow and a long bull!
What you want is to get rich slowly through investment. (Note that this is an investment and not a speculation)
Therefore, the future bull market will test investors' patience and cognition!
The ecology of A-shares is changing. The era of littering will be a thing of the past.
In another article on the official account, I will explain in detail the important differences of the nine articles of the country.
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