Recently, netizens have widely spread and discussed on social media: Zhai Zhenwu, a famous Chinese demographer, released a paper 10 years ago on the liberalization of the two-child policy, and 97 million children will be born in China, and the results are based on the current fertility rate. How outrageous this is, it's a slap in the face!
The fact is that as of 2023, nine years after the release of the second child, the population data is far from reaching the number predicted by Professor Zhai. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2023, the population of the mainland will be only 140967, a decrease of 2.08 million from the previous year, and the annual birth population will be only 9.02 million, with a birth rate of only 0.63%. The population growth rate is even more negative.
There is a large discrepancy between the experts' predictions and the actual data, which may have many impacts on society.
Predicting the credibility of the error strike expert
As a well-known expert in the field of population, Professor Zhai's prediction was taken seriously at the time and attracted widespread attention. But over time, it turned out that his prediction did not materialize, and there was a big difference from the actual data. This will undoubtedly undermine the expert's predictive ability and professionalism, and weaken the public's trust in his research results.
Influencing government decision-making and social expectations
Expert forecasts are an important reference for government decision-making. If there is a big difference between the forecast results and the facts, it may affect the scientificity and effectiveness of the government's administrative decision-making, and further affect the expected effect of society. For example, Professor Zhai predicts that the population will increase dramatically, and then the government can take certain countermeasures. In fact, if the population is not growing, the government may be redundant.
It may adversely affect the industry
Professor Zhai predicts that a large population growth in the short term may affect the development planning of the industry. If some industries increase production capacity in line with the floating assumption of large population growth, they may fall into the red when the real data shows a downward trend. For example, at present, industrial parks and public service facilities in many places will face the problem of excess capacity.
Inaccurate data can mislead society
As a reference, if the data error is large, it may mislead the public to judge the future trend and make inappropriate decisions. For example, some families may have a second child earlier because of the predicted outcome, but fail to anticipate the rising cost of raising them in the future.
Influencing the research and judgment of the trend of population development in mainland China
Population is a complex system, and expert predictions require long-term observation and judgment based on a combination of factors. An example of a large forecast error may have a negative impact on the development of questioning thinking in future trend forecasting by population experts.
Although the expert forecast is an open question, if the forecast results are too biased, it will inevitably have a certain negative impact. This is a bell that cannot be said by outsiders at the experts themselves and at the relevant decision-making level.
At present, the mainland's population development is facing a major turning point, and the pressure to optimize the population structure continues to increase. As an important reference to assist decision-making, the accuracy of expert prediction needs to be paid more attention.
In the 10 years since the second child was released, the population growth of the mainland has been very different from the predictions of population experts at that time. This will undoubtedly have a certain impact on all aspects of society. In the future, population research and forecasting work needs to pay attention to the comprehensiveness and uncertainty of data in order to maximize its value. It also requires the joint efforts of all sectors to provide more accurate decision-making support for the sustainable development of the mainland's population.