Preface
Whether Zeng Guofan could reverse the Qing Dynasty's crushing defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War may have puzzled historians and ordinary readers alike. The defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War not only brought great humiliation to the Qing Dynasty, but also became an important node in the history of humiliation in modern China.
So, if Zeng Guofan, the most prestigious military strategist of the time, had personally commanded the war, what would have been the difference? Would he have been able to use his successful experience in the civil war to turn the tide and win a decent victory for the Qing Dynasty?
Zeng Guofan's successful experience in the civil war
In 1851, the Taiping Rebellion swept through the Central Plains, bringing an unprecedented crisis to the Qing government. At this critical moment, Zeng Guofan, with his wisdom and determination, successfully formed the Hunan army, and finally defeated the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom and saved the Qing Dynasty's dominance.
The key to Zeng Guofan's victory in the civil war is that he is well versed in the way of governing the country by "governing the country with literature and cultivating it with martial arts". He knew that it would be difficult to defeat the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom by force alone, because the other side had a strong public opinion base and religious appeal. Therefore, Zeng Guofan first set out to consolidate the Confucian religion and win the support of intellectuals and the general public.
He vigorously advocated the idea of being loyal to the monarch, loving the country, and abiding by discipline and law in the Hunan army, and strictly demanded that officers and men abide by military discipline and maintain social order. This method of "being a cultural person" not only enhanced the combat effectiveness of the Hunan army, but also won the hearts of Zeng Guofan.
At the same time, Zeng Guofan was also good at using diplomatic means to skillfully mobilize the forces of all parties to form a joint force to attack the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom. He successively established extensive alliances with the Qing court, foreign merchants, and local forces, creating a favorable external environment for the victory of the Hunan army. It can be said that Zeng Guofan's success in the civil war was not only due to his outstanding military command ability, but also to his outstanding political wisdom and strategy.
If Zeng Guofan commanded the Sino-Japanese War
So, what would have been the result if Zeng Guofan, a military wizard, had personally commanded the First Sino-Japanese War?
First of all, after Zeng Guofan took office, he would definitely conduct a comprehensive combing and assessment of the military strength of the Qing army. He will carefully understand the equipment, training level, morale and other aspects of the Qing army, and take timely measures to deal with the existing problems.
We know that although the equipment of the Qing army has been greatly improved at that time, there are still deficiencies in firepower and mobility. Zeng Guofan will certainly start to strengthen these weak links and improve the overall combat capability of the Qing army.
At the same time, Zeng Guofan also attached great importance to the ideological and discipline building of the military. He will vigorously propagate the spirit of loyalty to the monarch, patriotism, bravery, and good fighting among the troops, and arouse the fighting enthusiasm of officers and men. At the same time, he will also strictly require the officers and men to abide by military discipline and maintain the good image of the troops. This method of "being a literate person" can not only enhance the combat effectiveness of the armed forces, but also win the support and trust of the broad masses of the people.
In terms of diplomacy, Zeng Guofan will certainly use his strategic talents to actively seek cooperation with the foreign powers. He would make full use of the Qing Dynasty's geographical advantages in East Asia to skillfully mobilize forces from all sides to form a joint force against Japan. For example, he may forge alliances with countries such as Russia to curb Japan's expansionist ambitions. At the same time, he would try his best to win the support of the Western powers and obtain more resources and assistance for the Qing army through diplomatic means.
Of course, Zeng Guofan will not ignore the layout at the strategic level. He would carefully study the Japanese army's combat methods and strategic intentions, and formulate a thorough battle plan.
In specific battles, he will certainly give full play to his rich war experience and use flexible and changeable tactics to maximize the advantages of the Qing army. For example, he may adopt tactics such as taking the initiative and outflanking to deal a heavy blow to the Japanese army.
In general, if Zeng Guofan had personally commanded the First Sino-Japanese War, he would have made full use of his rich experience in the civil war and went all out to win for the Qing Dynasty from multiple levels such as military, political, and diplomatic. His strategic talents, military wisdom, and statecraft may be able to reverse the Qing army's crushing defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War and win a decent victory for the Qing Dynasty.
Corruption within the Qing Dynasty
However, even with a military wizard like Zeng Guofan personally commanded, the Qing Dynasty's defeat in the Sino-Japanese War was not entirely due to military disadvantage. The deeper reason lies in the corruption and incompetence of the Qing ruling class.
We know that before the outbreak of the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing government faced invasions by foreign powers many times, but each time it ended in failure and had to sign a series of treaties that humiliated the country. The root cause of this successive defeat lies in the serious problem of corruption within the Qing government.
As the de facto ruler at the time, the Empress Dowager Cixi was greedy and only knew how to maintain her dominance, turning a blind eye to national affairs.
Not only is she unable to coordinate the overall situation and mobilize resources from all sides, but she also often interferes in military decision-making, leading to confusion in military command. Li Hongzhang and others even took military spending for themselves, regarded military affairs as child's play, and could be said to do everything for their own interests. How can such a corrupt and incompetent ruling clique hope to save the country from danger at a critical moment?
At the same time, conservative forces in the Qing Dynasty have been hindering the pace of reform. Although some enlightened people tried to push for change, the stubborn resistance of conservatives made it difficult to implement them. This internal contradiction and division also greatly weakened the overall strength of the Qing Dynasty and became an important reason for its repeated defeats.
It can be said that even with a military wizard like Zeng Guofan at the helm, it is difficult to fundamentally solve the deep corruption problem within the Qing Dynasty in a short period of time. This accumulation of internal ills eventually became a key factor hindering the Qing army's victory.
epilogue
To sum up, if Zeng Guofan had personally commanded the First Sino-Japanese War, he might have been able to rely on his rich experience accumulated in the civil war to maximize the advantages of the Qing army and win a decent victory for the Qing Dynasty by relying on his rich experience accumulated in the civil war. However, the deep corruption problem within the Qing Dynasty was difficult to solve in a short period of time, and this became a key factor hindering Zeng's victory.
The "ifs" of history often make people reverie, but the reality is often more cruel than imagined. Zeng Guofan's talents and achievements are certainly worthy of our admiration and learning, but the deep-seated problems within the Qing Dynasty were the root cause of his ultimate defeat. This also enlightens us that in the face of national crises, it is far from enough to rely solely on individual heroism, but it is even more necessary to fundamentally solve the internal problems of the country in order to truly achieve national rejuvenation.