Now it seems that the bombing of the Iranian embassy may be far more serious than we think. According to a number of media reports, many countries such as China, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France have issued emergency warnings: do not travel to Iran and Israel.
And the Wall Street Journal also predicts that Iran may launch an attack on Israeli territory in the next 24 to 48 hours. This makes people wonder, is there really a big war in the Middle East?
01 The Verge
In fact, as early as April 1, after the attack on the Iranian embassy, the situation in the entire Middle East has become very unstable, and the Iranian side has openly stated that it will retaliate against Israel.
However, the subsequent development was still within a "controllable" range, and most of Iran's "retaliation" was also led by armed groups from other countries, carrying out air strikes and bombing on Israel.
The Israeli army has also begun to withdraw troops from Gaza on a large scale, leaving only one brigade to continue to be stationed, and it is also negotiating an armistice with Hamas in Cairo, and Iran has also said that "as long as Israel withdraws from Gaza, it can give up retaliation."
It seems that everything is turning in the direction of stability, but now it may be just a "return to the past", starting with Netanyahu's public statement that he will continue to operate against Rafah, and threatening to "withdraw troops for a better offensive".
The negotiations were also at an impasse, and the Iranian side, seeing Israel's insincere reaction, naturally reconsidered the previously mentioned "abandonment of retaliation", and many armed forces began to bomb it again.
Under such a high-pressure situation, on April 12, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also took the lead in contacting China, Russia and other countries by phone, expressing the hope that Iran could be persuaded not to retaliate against Israel.
At the same time, many media outlets, including the United Kingdom and the United States, have begun to report that Iran is predicted to launch a large-scale retaliatory action against Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Then the embassies of many countries issued urgent warnings, and the mainland embassy in Israel also expressed that the current situation in Israel is more serious, and hopes that Chinese citizens in Israel will insist on not going out unless necessary, and reminded "Chinese citizens should not go to Israel for the time being".
Such an urgent situation is bound to lead many people to speculate whether this war in the Middle East is really imminent?
02 The situation is unknown
According to the current point of view, although the situation in the Middle East is very urgent, there are still many uncertain factors, such as the vacillation of the attitude of the United States, whether the Iranian side will end the country on a large scale, and Israel's strategy after the future are still several factors of change.
First of all, on the U.S. side, when Biden was asked in an interview with the media on April 12 about his views on the Iranian outbreak, he directly warned "don't do this, Iran will not succeed" and said that he would increase support for Israel.
Of course, we don't know whether this increased support will end directly or increase aid, but judging from the previous reaction of the United States, it does not want to be completely involved in this whirlpool.
In addition to the votes of the Biden administration and internal opposition, there are two main points: one is that the Middle East has a lot to do with the price of oil, and the other is that I really don't have the ability to do so today.
First of all, as early as the Cold War, countries in the Middle East carried out a major oil price increase to oppose the United States' help to Israel, which eventually led to a huge turmoil in the American economy, because the dollar is very closely related to oil
Second, Iran can be regarded as a relatively large country, and it can also be called a regional power in the Middle East, and its military strength has also been greatly improved in recent years.
Moreover, the United States has not conducted large-scale combat operations for a long time, and it is basically some wars against Iraq and Afghanistan, and whether its overall strength can undertake large-scale operations is still a question mark.
Therefore, from the first moment of receiving the attack on the Iranian embassy, the US side took the lead in saying that it did not know in advance and did not support Israel's approach.
There is also uncertainty about Iran's movements, whether it is a tough attitude on the surface or a public anger against the United States, which shows that Iran almost has to take action in this retaliation.
But on the other hand, fighting means casualties and requires a lot of resources, and the first few attacks by armed groups from other countries can be regarded as a more effective means.
However, we can also feel that the previous bombing of the Iranian embassy has stirred up a strong internal public opinion for revenge, but how to do it and the intensity of its implementation are still uncertain.
03 War clouds
So far, about half a year after the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel has killed as many as 30,000 civilians in Gaza, and the situation is even faintly expanding.
Previously, many armed groups around Israel had already launched bombing against Israel, and in the early morning of April 12, the "Lebanese Allah" also launched more fierce air strikes, firing more than 50 rockets.
The Israeli side claims to have "partially intercepted", but some believe that this is just a test to see Israel's defense capabilities, and the attack may be more fierce after that.
At the same time, the United States, France and other Western countries have issued statements saying that they will support Israel's defense, but judging from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is still unknown how and whether the West will implement it.
In fact, even at this point, we can still feel that both the United States and Iran are actually acting cautiously, and the United States does not want to end up directly, and Iran itself probably does not want to, because a collision between the two sides will not benefit either side.
Israel, the real protagonist of this conflict, is probably the culprit that has made the clouds of war grow, whether it is the early siege of the Gaza Strip, the brutalization of the local people, and finally the attack on the Iranian embassy.
In essence, Israel is ignoring the sovereignty and humanitarianism of neighboring countries, and the final result is only more and more chaos, and Netanyahu obviously wants to pull the United States and Iran onto this train for his own interests.
The current form is still uncertain, the United States, Iran, Israel, etc. are still in the "mouthpiece" of each other, as for the next move, it still depends on who can make the final decision first.
In fact, from this conflict, we can feel that war is not far away from people in its current form, and that it is only through the continuous efforts of the state that we can sit here and judge other things.
Some people or forces have already triggered the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and are still trying to expand the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and even criticize the internal affairs of the mainland, so they can only advise them: Don't be unpopular and swallow elephants, and you will only destroy yourself in the end.
Sources of information:
[1] The Chinese Embassy in Israel - Chinese citizens in Israel are reminded to pay close attention to the security situation on the ground
[2] Huanqiu.com - US media: The French Foreign Ministry warned French citizens "absolutely not" to go to Israel, Palestine and other places
[3] Observer.com - U.S. and Israeli intelligence agents say Iran is about to launch a large-scale retaliation, possibly striking Israeli military and government facilities
The Israeli military said it had been attacked by dozens of rockets from Allah in Lebanon