After a lot of hot spots, we will find that there are always unexpected results. Therefore, there is no need to be biased by some media materials, correct views, but not mainstream on the platform.
In the past two days, Iran's attempt to retaliate against Israel and the Iran-Israel war has become an international hot topic. There are three reasons for this situation: the outside world believes that a war in the Middle East is about to break out.
First, Iran and Israel exchanged harsh words, and Iran claimed that it would retaliate for Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria. On April 13, foreign media reported that Allah Lebanon fired rockets into Israel, and the United States said that satellite images showed that Iran had mobilized 100 missiles.
Second, the United States, Russia, China and other countries have successively issued security warnings to remind their people not to travel to Israel and the Middle East.
Third, Blinken had a phone call with our commissar Wang, and Blinken asked China to persuade Iran not to strike at Israel.
The above three things, through many platforms, you can see the article that Iran wants to retaliate against Israel, and it is unanimously agreed that Iran is going to take action against Israel.
Some big Vs wrote articles that Iran retaliated against Israel, and a war in the Middle East would break out, and even that it would affect many countries in the Middle East.
If we go through these articles, we will naturally be led into thinking that Iran is going to have a showdown with Israel, and the situation in the Middle East is dangerous. But on April 13, judging by the text published by the Russian media, a large-scale war between Iran and Israel is unlikely.
On April 10, 2024, the website of Russia Today TV published an article titled "The Possibility of Escalation: What Mutual Threats Between Israel and Iran Could Cause", which argues that Israel provokes Iran and wants to drag Iran into the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and then take the opportunity to get the United States to increase aid to Israel.
The article talks about the U.S.-Israel relationship, and the U.S. presidential election, Israel wants to further exacerbate the Middle East conflict, so that the United States has to intervene. Although there is some truth to this, now in the mind of the United States, if Iran strikes at Israel, will the United States be able to fully intervene in the Middle East conflict?
If it intervenes, China and Russia will successfully disentangle, and Russia will fight more and more smoothly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and will further advance into the heart of Ukraine. China could also take advantage of the U.S. entangled in the Middle East to move further in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Things are far from simple.
(a)
Many big Vs think that Iran is forced into a "dead end" from Iran's cruel words, and there are short videos that Iran will attack Israel within 48 hours, which makes the United States very uncomfortable.
We must first find out whether Iran can fight or not.
The blatant bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria by Israel is in itself a violation of Iran's sovereignty, and Iran cannot endure this tone, and it will definitely retaliate, but when will it retaliate, to what extent, and in what way.
Iran is a very special country in the Middle East, don't look at the cruel words, ridiculed by netizens as the "second tolerable" country.
In the face of the bombing of the embassy, Iran will definitely fight back against Israel, but if it really wants to make a move and have a complete showdown with Israel, it is impossible to speak ruthlessly every day as it is now.
Iran also has concerns, as a major oil producer in the Middle East, if Iran has a showdown with Israel, it will inevitably face US intervention. It is also interesting to look at Iran's diplomatic language, "The United States should not intervene, and if it does, Iran will strike at the US military in the Middle East." "Just listen to that.
It is impossible for Iran to take advantage of its national strength, and a showdown with the United States and Israel will be detrimental to Iran. The reason for the harsh words is also Iran's reassurance of domestic hardliners.
Don't look at Iran's deep hatred with the United States and Israel, there are also pro-American factions in Iran, and their forces are very strong.
It is not surprising that Iran is pro-American, since before the Islamic Revolution in Iran, US-Iran relations were not ordinary, relations were very good, and Iran was deeply influenced by the United States. Although more than 40 years have passed since the Islamic Revolution, U.S. influence in Iran still exists.
(b)
If Iran doesn't want to fight, why talk harshly, and also create a tense atmosphere?
In addition to appeasing Iran's domestic discontent with Israel, Iran will certainly fight back, but it just doesn't want to make it bigger. The United States and Russia see this very clearly, but the United States also wants to drag Iran into a large-scale war and completely destroy the country.
The two sides seem to be on edge, and Iran's retaliation will be resolved by "proxy", and Iran will not play in person. Judging from the rockets fired by Allah in Lebanon, Iran's retaliation will be carried out through anti-Israel forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and other countries.
According to media information on April 13, Iranian analysts also retaliated against Iran in three stages, the first stage was aimed at Israeli military bases, the second stage was carried out by civilian resistance groups, and the third stage, if the United States intervened, Iran would attack US and Israeli bases and embassies in the Middle East.
Now, the anti-Israeli forces have begun to bomb Israel, but the scale of the conflict is not large, and it will not cause a major conflict.
Israel can't even handle Hamas, let alone the anti-Israel forces in the Middle East.
It cannot be ruled out that the anti-Israeli forces in Syria, Iraq and other countries will also strike at Israel one after another, and as for whether the United States will not end, just like Iran's warning, as long as the United States is down, Iran will strike. Conversely, as long as Iran does not launch a large-scale attack on Israel, the United States will not end up and will come to Israel's aid behind its back.
Don't underestimate the "proxy" war, now the anti-Israeli armed forces in the Middle East will be difficult to support until now without the support of Iran. These anti-Israeli forces are no longer what they used to be; they not only have advanced weapons, but they also have rules and regulations for their military operations, and they have been fighting for so many years, and they have rich experience and their combat effectiveness cannot be underestimated. Just like Hamas, Israel, which claims to be a military power, has not done it.
Yemen's Houthi rebels are known as the "slipper army", but now they are so strong that even the United States is afraid of them.
(c)
Iran will not have a complete showdown with Israel, Iran will definitely conduct a pre-war assessment, and it is impossible to take action at great national risk, and the more ruthless the words, the less likely it is that a large-scale conflict will occur, and there will be no major Iran-Israel war.
But small-scale attacks on Israel will become a feature of the Middle East in the future. Iran's retaliation this time is just to point to a certain extent, and just feel the balance.
Don't be led astray by the harsh rhetoric between Iran and Israel, and think that a war in the Middle East is coming, which is good for us. There is also information that we can take the opportunity to solve the problem of reunification, as well as the issue of the South China Sea being constantly violated by the Philippines.
Without so many opportunities, the U.S. target remains China. Through Japan's Fumio Kishida's visit to the United States, it can be seen that the United States has already attacked China, and the United States will deploy medium-range missiles in Japan, and this is the real threat to us.
As for whether Iran and Israel will fight big or small, we don't need to pay too much attention, in fact, we should see more clearly the threats we are facing, the situation in the Middle East is in our favor, but will the United States let us easily "benefit"?
Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has also visited the United States, and will provoke China in the South China Sea next, and it is not ruled out that we will teach the Philippines a lesson in the South China Sea.
Iran has secret contacts with the United States and Israel, and there are some things that we cannot see. We should not think that the United States will get bogged down in the Middle East, but should be more vigilant against the actions of the United States, Japan and the Philippines.
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