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Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua team
Authors of this report:
应镓娴 S0850521080001
梁中华 S0850520120001
·Summary · Compared with the continuous "good start" in the first quarter of last year, the financing demand in the first quarter of this year was generally flat, and the supply side was also relatively "restrained", with the growth rate of social financing stock falling to 8.7% and M2 falling to 8.3% year-on-year, which needs to be further repaired. Judging from the financing items in March, the issuance of government bonds still needs to be accelerated, the financing of enterprises needs to be boosted, and the loans of residents have turned positive, and it is necessary to continue to cut the interest rate of housing loans to stabilize the financing demand. On the one hand, the central bank has launched a 500 billion yuan re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and the investment in equipment renewal is expected to accelerate; on the other hand, the short-term export performance is still resilient, and the profits of industrial enterprises have also continued to increase year-on-year, supporting the performance of the manufacturing industry. However, the pressure on the construction industry, especially the real estate sector, continues, and it needs to be actively cared for. Risk warning: the uncertainty of real estate trends.
On April 12, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in the first quarter of 2024 will be 12.93 trillion yuan, 1.61 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year, and the stock of social financing will fall to 8.7% year-on-year. RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter, and it is estimated that RMB loans increased by 3.09 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year decrease of 349.8 billion yuan. Here's how we interpret it:
1
The growth rate of social finance continued to decline
According to the data of the first quarter, the new social finance in March was 4.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 514.2 billion yuan, and the decrease was narrower than that in February. However, affected by factors such as the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the financing data in the first two months of this year fluctuated greatly, if we look at the combination of January and March, compared with the first quarter of last year, the financing performance this year is relatively flat, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.61 trillion yuan in the first quarter, driving the growth rate of social financing stock to fall back to 8.7%, and financing still needs to be boosted.
From a structural point of view, non-standard financing and corporate bond financing formed the main support for the year-on-year growth of social financing in March, while RMB loans and government bond financing to entities were weaker than the same period last year, and the structure was very similar to the cumulative performance from January to February. In March, the total amount of non-standard financing increased by 376.8 billion yuan, an increase of 184.6 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of 176 billion yuan in undiscounted bank bills year-on-year, or related to the resumption of work and production of enterprises after the Spring Festival holiday; at the same time, trust loans under the low base increased by 72.5 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of corporate bonds, the net financing in March was 460.8 billion yuan, an increase of 125.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
RMB loans to entities increased by 3.3 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year decrease of 656.1 billion yuan. However, from the beginning of last year to March, there was a strong "good start" effect, and the base was relatively high. In addition, the net financing of government bonds in March was 464.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 137.3 billion yuan, and the issuance of local bonds was still slow. However, we believe that government bond financing may accelerate in the second quarter, which is expected to form some support for the next social financing.
2
Household financing turned positive
In March, new RMB loans amounted to 3.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 350 billion yuan. The base of the same period last year was relatively high, but if we compare it with March 2022 (3.13 trillion yuan), there is still a slight increase this year, and credit demand needs to continue to recover. In terms of sub-items, both corporate credit and household credit increased slightly year-on-year compared with March last year. However, compared with last year's financing "forward force" (that is, the proportion of credit in the first quarter is higher), this year may reflect the requirement of "balanced delivery" to a certain extent.
In March, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased slightly year-on-year. In March, corporate loans increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 360 billion yuan, and both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans of enterprises showed a year-on-year decrease. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 470 billion yuan. The base in March last year was relatively high, but compared with 2021 and 2022, the increase in March this year was not strong (the increase was less than 270 billion yuan). At the same time, bill financing in March increased by 218.7 billion yuan year-on-year, combined with the rapid decline in bill interest rates at the end of March, banks have a certain demand for bill impulse, which also points to the marginal weakening of corporate financing performance in March.
In the residential sector, medium- and long-term loans turned positive again. In March, residents' credit increased by 940.6 billion yuan, of which residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 451.6 billion yuan, which turned positive again compared with February, but increased by 183.2 billion yuan year-on-year. In March, real estate sales showed a seasonal recovery, but this year's "Xiaoyangchun" was weak, and the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell by about -47.3% year-on-year, which was reflected in the weak growth of residents' medium and long-term loans on the financing side. At the same time, the short-term loans of residents in March increased by 118.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and the consumer loan market was also deserted.
We believe that although the real estate policies in some regions have continued to be optimized and adjusted in recent months, the drag effect of household credit on overall financing may still be difficult to alleviate in the short term. In order to boost residents' financing demand in the future, there is still a lot of room for the reduction of existing and incremental mortgage interest rates.
3
M1 and M2 continued to decline year-on-year
In terms of currency, M1 continued to fall by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 1.1% in March, and the data of the first two months were greatly affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, so the growth rate continued to fall in March (1.3% year-on-year in December 2023), pointing to the continuation of the low liquidity of enterprises, especially real estate enterprises. M2 also fell by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 8.3% in March, the lowest since October 2021.
On the whole, compared with the continuous "good start" in the first quarter of last year, the financing demand in the first quarter of this year was generally flat, and the supply side was also relatively "restrained", with the growth rate of social financing stock falling to 8.7% and M2 falling to 8.3% year-on-year, which needs to be further repaired. Judging from the financing items in March, the issuance of government bonds still needs to be accelerated, the financing of enterprises needs to be boosted, and the loans of residents have turned positive, and it is necessary to continue to cut the interest rate of housing loans to stabilize the financing demand.
On the one hand, the central bank has launched a 500 billion yuan re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and the investment in equipment renewal is expected to accelerate; on the other hand, the short-term export performance is still resilient, and the profits of industrial enterprises have also continued to increase year-on-year, supporting the performance of the manufacturing industry. However, the pressure on the construction industry, especially the real estate sector, continues, and it needs to be actively cared for.
Risk warning: the uncertainty of real estate trends
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