In the near future, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will leave for a visit to China, and interestingly, before his visit, a German think tank issued a special warning that Germany is still inseparable from China. The implication is to tell Scholz not to talk nonsense. Before answering this question, let's take a look at the purpose of Scholz's visit to China.
[Scholz will visit China this month]
Judging from German media reports, Scholz's delegation to China is very luxurious, in addition to a number of government officials, it also includes a variety of top German executives, including Siemens, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and German industrial giant ThyssenKrupp. It can be seen that one of the important topics of Scholz's visit is to strengthen economic and trade exchanges with China.
For Germany, which is currently caught up in the "de-risking" trend, there is a reality that they have to face, and that is that the German economy is still highly dependent on China. Official data show that in the past 10 years, the number of product groups with high dependence on German imports from China has increased significantly, especially in the areas of industrial manufacturing, electronics and minerals, and China's share of Germany's total imports is still more than 50%.
For example, last year, Germany's total direct investment in China reached a record 92.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% over the same period, of which Germany's investment in China accounted for about 10.3% of its total overseas investment, the highest level since 2014.
[German veteran car companies increase cooperation with China]
You must know that Germany was originally the locomotive of the EU's economic development, but now their economic situation is very passive, not only forced to cut off energy exchanges with Russia, but also forced to withdraw from the Russian market, the resulting industrial flight, capital flight, has exhausted Germany, plus in order to cope with the new security situation caused by the conflict, a large amount of funds have been used for the military. If the conflict does not end as soon as possible in the short term, the German economy will continue to suffer hard.
In the face of the current bleak economic situation, it is clear that German companies have a strong desire to strengthen cooperation with China, especially to seize the opportunities of China's digital economy and green transformation. This can be seen from the German Chancellor's visit to China, as well as the series of actions taken by traditional German car companies to actively seek technical cooperation with Chinese car companies, even relocate electric vehicle production lines to China, and continue to expand investment in China. The importance of the Chinese market to the German economy is obvious.
At the same time, however, we must also note that Germany is, after all, an ally of the United States, which has led to a very fragmented attitude toward China.
[China warns against "de-risking" behavior]
In July last year, the Scholz government issued a document called the "China Strategy". In this document, China is clearly defined as a "systemic adversary" while also being referred to as a "partner" and a "competitor." At the same time, the document also mentions that Germany needs to "reduce its dependence on China" and "ensure its own security".
In addition, the German government has adjusted the Foreign Investment Law and the Overseas Investment Regulations for six consecutive years, and the review procedures and content of foreign investment have been more stringent, which has brought great challenges to the operation and investment of Chinese enterprises in Germany. However, despite some strict revisions, the German government claims that these initiatives are only about managing risks, not about severing ties with China, but about making the German economy more independent.
China has warned more than once that this practice of "de-risking" and engaging in competition and protectionism will only exacerbate the division of the world and jeopardize Sino-German relations. Judging from the warning of the German think tank, they are also very aware that their mentality of "both wants and wants" will have an impact on the cooperation between the two countries, so they have paid special attention to their "words and deeds" in the near future. For example, in the delegation of this visit, Scholz deliberately rejected the participation of the German foreign minister.
[Baerbock was kicked out of the German delegation to China]
In accordance with international practice, the foreign minister is usually accompanied by a foreign leader such as the prime minister, who is in charge of the country's foreign policy, has an in-depth understanding of international laws and regulations, and has an in-depth understanding of the historical background of the relationship between countries, and can also provide some professional advice during the visit and during the negotiation of sensitive issues to ensure that the exchanges between the two sides do not go off the rails.
However, we all know that German Foreign Minister Baerbock is a well-known "hardliner on China", and since he took office, he has been closely following in the footsteps of the United States, frequently provoking China's bottom line, not only publicly declaring on many occasions that she wants to increase "decoupling" from China and reduce her so-called "economic dependence" on China, but also meddled in China's South China Sea affairs many times, criticized China's reasonable expulsion of Philippine Chuanzhi, and announced that she would expand coastal defense cooperation between Germany and the Philippines. If it is included in the entourage, there is a great probability that Sino-Russian trade will be disrupted.
In our view, Germany's "prudent words and deeds" do have a certain positive effect on promoting Sino-German cooperation, but if China and Germany want long-term cooperation, it is not enough to be cautious in words and deeds, what Germany needs to do is to look at China's development with an objective and rational attitude, and create a more feasible policy towards China.