The price of Moutai can't stand it, and other liquors will only be lower.
Text | Selling Wine Wolf Team
Ed southerly
"Feitian Moutai can't withstand the off-season of consumption. "In the past few days, the news about the decline in the price of Feitian Moutai terminals has been on the list of hot searches many times, and even caused fluctuations in the share price of Kweichow Moutai.
It is rumored that since April 8, Kweichow Moutai's share price has fallen for three consecutive days, and its market value has shrunk by more than 60 billion yuan.
"The same thing brings different joys and sorrows. In the eyes of industry insiders, the price decline of Feitian Moutai is "sad" for the entire liquor industry, the first brands are cutting prices, and the price status of other brands will not be better.
However, for ordinary consumers, this is indeed an opportunity to "buy the bottom" and save money......
A
"Normal Fall"
Moutai is used to it
"It's dropped, and the price of Feitian Moutai today is 2,550 yuan. A liquor store owner interviewed by the media said that everyone is selling at a lower price, and the decline in different regions is different, with 2,500 yuan/bottle down is the red line, and 2,800 yuan/bottle up is the peak.
It is worth mentioning that Kweichow Moutai has long been very accustomed to the price drop in March and April.
It is reported that in March and April of 2021, 2022, and 2023, the terminal transaction price of Feitian Moutai has fallen, and there is only a difference in magnitude or size.
Although the year varies, March and April are the low seasons every year, and the drop in prices is not surprising. On the one hand, the liquor industry has entered the off-season after the Spring Festival this year, and the consumption of Feitian Moutai has decreased, which is a normal phenomenon. Secondly, consumers are very pessimistic about future income expectations, dare not consume, and are unwilling to consume, which has also led to a decrease in the consumption of Moutai.
From the perspective of Kweichow Moutai, Feitian Moutai, whose ex-factory price is only more than 1,000 yuan, will not affect its profits even if the price falls to 2,500 yuan per bottle.
B
Lack of confidence, stock price drops!
It stands to reason that the profits of a listed company have not been reduced by the decline in product prices, and the company's stock price should not fluctuate, but this time, Kweichow Moutai's share price has staged a "fall and fall".
In this regard, an interviewed industry expert bluntly said that the reduction in consumption in the off-season is the specific reason and surface reason for the decline in the price of Feitian Moutai, and the deep reason behind the surface is "lack of confidence".
First, there is a lack of confidence in the recovery speed of the domestic economy, and second, there is a lack of confidence in the high-quality development of the liquor industry. In this context, more and more consumers choose to "cash around" and begin to sell Feitian Moutai, which is also an investment attribute, a collection attribute and a financial attribute.
At the same time, the amplified supply also provides a reason for the price of Feitian Moutai to fall. According to the 2023 financial report data, as of last year, the designed production capacity of Kweichow Moutai Moutai liquor making workshop was 42,800 tons, and the actual production capacity was 57,200 tons, of which the design capacity increased by 52.5 tons year-on-year, and the production capacity will be released in 2024.
According to incomplete statistics, in January this year, more than 100,000 bottles of 53 degrees Feitian Moutai were massed on multiple platforms and terminals. In addition, during the Qingming Festival, Jingdong, Taobao and other platforms increased the volume of 10,000 bottles for 5 consecutive days.
From these two points, it can be seen that Kweichow Moutai is actually the "key driver" of the price decline of Feitian Moutai.
According to a veteran in the industry, first, in order to effectively control the continuous rise in the price of Feitian Moutai so that ordinary consumers can afford it; second, in order to achieve the development trend of "going hand in hand," we can rely on Feitian Moutai to make profits, but we cannot only rely on Feitian Moutai to make profits. With Feitian Moutai as the core, we can create a richer and younger product matrix, so that Kweichow Moutai's performance can be more guaranteed.
C
"Moutai has fallen, and others will also fall!"
Hurry up, everyone......
It is also necessary to note that at the moment when the terminal price of Feitian Moutai is falling, other liquor brands are bound to be affected.
As the price "wind vane" in the liquor industry, when the price of Feitian Moutai rises, other liquor brands may not be able to keep up. But when its price is falling, it is difficult for other liquor brands to maintain stability, even if they want to.
In addition, in 2024, the entire wine industry is still facing problems such as high inventory, price inversion, and insufficient demand, and the market needs time to digest the capacity expanded in the past few years. And this will also lead to the price of many liquor products "not going up".
From the perspective of the development of the liquor industry, the price cannot be sold, which is not conducive to the upgrading and progress of the entire industrial chain.
However, from a consumer's point of view, it is possible to spend less money on better liquor.
In the view of many industry insiders, consumers who have a large expected demand for liquor can make a "bottom-copy" in the price drop of "gold three silver four".
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