Reading guide:In the past few years,The volatility of the global market has increased significantly,The pursuit of long-term stable returns,It has gradually become the biggest demand and pain point of many investors。 One of the effective means to reduce volatility is to diversify and diversify investments. Therefore, in recent years, investors have continued to extend their investment tentacles - from single equity assets to multiple assets such as equity, bonds and commodities, from single country investment to globalization and multi-strategy allocation.
In the unpredictable capital markets, no single asset class wins every year. However, through global asset allocation, on the one hand, it can increase the range of investable assets and diversify the income sources of the portfolio, and on the other hand, it can also improve the stability of the overall income of the portfolio with the help of the weak correlation between different underlying assets and economies of different countries, so as to bring a more stable experience to holders.
However, it is not easy to do a good job in global multi-asset investment, and each additional type of asset in the portfolio will increase the difficulty of investment, which puts forward higher requirements for the investment ability of fund managers, and the diversification and richness of assets also means that the implementation of the strategy has a deeper reliance on the investment research platform and investment team.
As a comprehensive asset management company, GF Fund has established a platform-based and integrated investment and research system, and has achieved full coverage of mainstream asset classes such as stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities and financial derivatives.
To do a good job in asset management, in addition to the "completeness" in the breadth of research, it also requires the "refinement" in the depth of research. To this end, GF Fund has set up a cross-border multi-asset investment research team. The team members focus on the cross-asset allocation of developed countries and emerging markets around the world, and cover foreign exchange, commodities, equity, bonds and other related fields according to the three directions of equity, strategy and credit.
This cross-border multi-asset investment research team is led by Shen Bowen, deputy general manager of the international business department of GF Fund. According to the data, Shen Bowen has 13 years of experience in the securities industry and 11 years of experience in overseas asset investment management. In years of investment research practice, she has structured the expected return and volatility into an asset allocation plan, pursuing to maximize long-term returns within the expected volatility range, and at the same time using different asset allocation plans to match the wealth management needs of different investors.
Shen Bowen of GF Fund
"In multi-asset investing, the most important thing is the return of the entire portfolio, not the performance of a single asset. It's like a game of total scores, requiring a relatively consistent score across each asset class to ultimately maximize the total score. Shen Bowen hopes that with the research support of the company's platform and cross-border multi-asset team, he can balance the speed and stability of multi-asset investment, and strive to provide investors with long-term stable returns.
Multi-asset investing is the way of the future
Zhu Ang: Can you briefly explain how you got into multi-asset investing?
Shen Bowen: I started working with multi-asset investing while studying overseas. During my studies, I invested almost all of the funds in my personal account in assets with a high risk appetite, including stock options, commodities and precious metal futures, foreign exchange spot, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks long and short, etc.
At one point, I once changed the account funds from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands in a short period of time, and reaped several times the return of the principal. But soon after, he "accidentally" lost more than 100,000 yuan, "as if he returned to the pre-liberation period overnight", and all his previous efforts were in vain.
While I had expected my investment returns to run as fast as driving an "F1 car", after a few years of tossing around in risky assets, I realized that my returns might not grow as fast as "cycling" because I didn't control volatility and drawdowns. This made me rethink how to get the most lucrative investment returns possible under the premise of controlling risks.
Later, I tried to invest in multiple assets, but in some extreme years, I still couldn't compete with the beta of the market. The reason for this is that a single asset may perform better at some times and less than at others. Since then, I have realized that multi-asset investing is the way of the future, and that it may be difficult to cross bulls and bears in the long term with one type of asset alone.
Zhu Ang: When did you start practicing global multi-asset investing?
After joining the public offering industry, I have successively managed different products such as QDII public offerings and special accounts, covering domestic credit bonds and interest rate bonds in the fixed income field, as well as overseas Asian bonds and global bonds.
In the practice of managing portfolios, I have gained a deeper understanding of multi-asset allocation. On the one hand, multi-asset allocation has the characteristics of multi-asset, multi-strategy and multi-regional, for example, multi-asset is not limited to traditional stock and bond allocation, but also includes commodities represented by gold and crude oil, and multi-strategy includes prosperity, earnings quality, large-cap quality, small-cap quantification, etc. Because the single-year performance of different assets and different strategies varies greatly, multi-asset allocation can bring different sources of income to the portfolio.
On the other hand, the single-year performance of different types of assets fluctuates greatly, and equity, bonds, and gold all have years of large volatility or negative returns. Constructing a diversified asset portfolio can hedge and diversify the risk sources in the portfolio, and reduce the volatility of the portfolio as much as possible without affecting the return elasticity.
In life, I love both F1 and cycling. In terms of investment, I want to achieve revenue growth at the speed of Formula 1 cars, and I also hope that the investment experience of holders can move forward steadily like a bicycle. ("Wide Speech|.") Shen Bowen: From "bicycle" to "F1", everyone should have multiple assets)
This contradiction of "both wants and wants" has profoundly affected the construction of my investment system, and it was not until I came into contact with global multi-asset investment that I found a balance between the growth rate and stability of investment returns as much as possible. I hope to bring a better experience to holders through multi-asset investment.
Zhu Ang: What do you think are the differences between the two from single asset to multi-asset?
Shen Bowen First of all, the two have different attitudes towards Beta and Alpha.
Active investment in a single asset often pays more attention to the acquisition of alpha, that is, whether it can outperform the market. Similar to in motor racing, people tend to focus on how to pick a faster driver (investment strategy) and less on the weather (market conditions) at the time of the race. However, in practice, it may happen that even if a star racer is selected, he may still break down (and lose money) in bad weather.
Multi-asset active investing, on the other hand, is more inclined to consider how to select a good beta at a certain stage. That is, based on the market situation (whether it is sunny or rainy) to judge what type of asset is more suitable for the moment, such as choosing more sports cars on sunny days - running fast, and choosing more bicycles on rainy days - relatively high safety.
Second, they have different requirements for the breadth and depth of asset coverage. In contrast, a single asset emphasizes the depth of research, while a multi-asset strategy has higher requirements for the breadth of assets, including equity and bond assets in China, as well as equity and bond assets and commodities in overseas developed countries and emerging markets.
A platform-based and systematic cross-border investment team
Zhu Ang: What kind of team do you think can do a good job in global multi-asset investment? GF Fund has a cross-border multi-asset investment research team, how do you divide labor and collaborate?
Shen Bowen To do a good job in global multi-asset investment, the support of the company's platform is very important. First of all, it is necessary to establish a "triangular cross-border investment team" - equity team, strategy team and fixed income credit team, which will test the company's own investment research background and strategic vision.
For example, GF Fund has long set its sights on global and diversified investment fields, establishing an international business department in 2007 and a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong, GF International, in 2010. Thanks to more than 20 years of accumulation, GF Fund has built a relatively mature macro research system and investment research information system, which can fully support investment fields such as stocks, bonds, quantification and asset allocation.
At present, in the domestic assets part, the research results of the company's domestic equity and fixed income researchers are open and shared with us, which provides great support for our multi-asset investment. The overseas research part is led by a cross-border multi-asset investment team jointly established by the parent and subsidiary, and the research direction includes overseas equity, overseas strategy and domestic and foreign credit bonds. Among them, credit researchers are not divided into Chinese and non-Chinese investors, and they are mainly covered by industry, while strategy researchers are divided by country, covering emerging markets and developed countries.
Relying on the platform-based and integrated investment and research support of GF Fund, we are able to focus on the forging of multi-asset investment and research capabilities such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and overseas bonds, laying a good foundation for global multi-asset investment.
Zhu Ang: Can you talk about how your cross-border team does global multi-asset allocation?
Shen Bowen Our philosophy is to achieve long-term stable returns through a balanced allocation of various assets, taking into account high Sharpe and low drawdown. Specifically, it is mainly composed of four steps: the selection of major types of assets, the selection of sub-asset classes, the selection of individual securities and managers, and the dynamic monitoring and adjustment of portfolios.
First of all, we will set the overall investment objective for the portfolio, especially the volatility, to guide the allocation of broad asset classes. By diversifying the assets held into multiple non-correlated assets, the volatility of the portfolio can be effectively reduced, which is also the "free lunch" brought by the breadth of multiple assets.
Secondly, when decomposing large categories of assets into sub-asset classes, we will use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to score assets in pairs, such as making some mutual comparisons and analyses between stocks and bonds, countries and regions, and industry themes, and finally adjust their tactical allocation accordingly according to the comprehensive scoring results.
In terms of further sub-asset (strategy) selection, we will determine whether to look for Alpha or Beta according to the characteristics of the sub-asset class and the demands of the portfolio for different assets, so as to select matching individual bonds or products. For beta assets, we will consider ETF acquisition, and for alpha assets, we will consider actively managing alpha creation or acquiring through good managers.
It is worth mentioning that we have built an improved version of the asset allocation framework on the basis of the traditional Merrill Lynch clock theory. The iterative allocation model not only covers economic growth and mobility, but also incorporates policy and sentiment into the allocation framework.
On the whole, quantitative analysis is mainly used for the asset allocation of the portfolio, and qualitative analysis is mainly used for the selection of individual stocks and individual bonds, and finally quantitative signals are added at the transaction level, forming a complete investment process of "quantitative-qualitative-then quantitative".
Zhu Ang: Can you elaborate on the "improved Merrill Lynch clock" you mentioned?
Shen Bowen The traditional Merrill Lynch clock theory is based on a two-dimensional framework of economic growth and inflation for asset allocation. However, in recent years, the macro environment has changed, and the way liquidity is provided has also changed, which has weakened the direct mapping between inflation and monetary policy. As a result, we have improved Merrill Lynch's "economic growth-inflation" model by changing "inflation" to "monetary policy/liquidity".
However, from a higher-frequency perspective, the two-dimensional framework of "economic growth-monetary policy/liquidity" is still relatively simple. On the one hand, economic growth and earnings cycles are mostly in sync in the medium to long term, but divergence may occur in the short term, and on the other hand, market sentiment will also have a large impact in the short term.
Therefore, we have added two dimensions, "change in earnings expectations", which is biased towards fundamental indicators, and "correlation between stocks and the economy", to the two-dimensional framework of "economic growth-monetary policy/liquidity", which is biased towards fundamental indicators, and "correlation between stocks and the economy".
Eventually, we evolved the Merrill Lynch clock from the original two-dimensional model to a four-dimensional allocation framework of "economic growth, monetary policy/liquidity, earnings expectations, and the correlation between stocks and economic growth" to guide the allocation ratio of large asset classes.
Multi-asset investment is a game of total scores
Zhu Ang: What are your deeper experiences or insights on multi-asset investment?
Shen Bowen First of all, in multi-asset investing, the most important thing is the return of the entire portfolio, not the performance of a single asset. It's like a game of total scores, requiring a relatively consistent score across each asset class to ultimately maximize the total score.
Therefore, when we manage a multi-asset portfolio, we first set a reasonable goal. I do not seek to seize the inflection point or make alpha for every asset class, but to seize the large swing market of important asset classes, and try to buy and sell within a reasonable range.
In other words, the requirement for investors in multi-asset portfolios is to strive to become "hexagonal warriors". That is, although it is not the first place in a certain category of individual items, the overall strength must have a competitive advantage, so I pay more attention to the comprehensiveness of the asset class.
Second, multi-asset investment should distinguish between its alpha and beta capabilities and make trade-offs. It is impossible for a person to have alpha ability in all asset classes, for example, for high-yield bonds in the United States, it is difficult for professional investors in the market to obtain alpha, then I would consider obtaining beta returns through ETFs.
Of course, we also need to put in the effort and time to build a deep understanding of different assets. The risk-return characteristics, market influencing factors and price formation mechanisms of different assets are different, and only by mastering the fluctuation laws of these assets can we predict market trends and investment opportunities relatively accurately.
Finally, risk management is crucial. Mapping to investment goals, it is important to survive at all times and then pursue further excellence, and not to put the cart before the horse.
Zhu Ang: You said that to do a good job in multi-asset investment, you need to become a hexagonal warrior, and you can't have shortcomings, can you understand that this has high requirements for a person's knowledge structure?
Shen Bowen: In my personal experience, "Hexagonal Warriors" does require investors to have a more comprehensive understanding and ability. I studied engineering abroad, and I will be involved in many industries, including chemicals, materials, new energy, cycles, and computers. Later, I went to the United States to study financial engineering, which supplemented my understanding of finance, formed my cognition of asset pricing, macro analysis, and asset allocation, and increased my quantitative perspective.
Looking at many different asset classes also improves my chances of winning on a single asset because they can be mutually validated. Together, these diversified perspectives and cross-asset class comparisons have helped me build a multi-asset investment circle of competence.
Zhu Ang: Are there any books or works that have had a big impact on your investment?
Shen Bowen The movie "The Big Short" impressed me deeply, and there is a thought-provoking line in it - "Too early is wrong", the deep meaning of this sentence is that it is not just guessing what may happen to be called correct, but only taking the best coping strategy at the most appropriate time can be called correct.
The same is true for investing, it is not enough to just guess the market trend, only to formulate the optimal investment strategy based on the correct judgment of the timing, can be considered successful.
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