With the super strong non-farm payrolls data, a number of Fed officials hawkish, and the CPI data greatly exceeded expectations, the expectation of interest rate cuts has changed abruptly.
It is said that last year dragged this year, the year was delayed in the middle of the year, and this time the end of the year was delayed, and it was delayed again and again! Colleagues complained speechlessly: If you want to add, you will add, if you want to drop, don't be so grinding and chirping.
In addition, we also disclosed the CPI data today, which is generally weak. However, Village A and Aberdeen withstood these shortcomings and quickly became popular.
First, there are two major disadvantages of hard and rigid
Last night, the United States disclosed the latest CPI data: the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in March.
The market expectation was 3.4%, compared to 3.2% previously. The data beat market expectations and also hit the highest level since September 2023.
This means that the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon in the coming months, and the rate cut is expected to be postponed again.
In addition, we disclosed the relevant data today.
In March, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, compared with 0.7% in the previous month, and the CPI fell by 1.0% month-on-month in March, compared with a 1.0% increase in the previous value, and the data was generally weak.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics official website, as of March 31, 2024
I think the data is weak for three reasons:
(1) First, the Spring Festival in February happens to be the peak consumption season, and the Spring Festival is encountered year-on-year, and some potential consumption is also advanced, and the base will be very high;
(2) The price of pork is very low due to capacity expansion and overcapacity.
(3) Second, the domestic economy is still sluggish due to the general economic situation. However, May Day is coming soon, and it is the peak consumption season.
However, in the face of the two major negative shocks, the market showed a rebounding trend, and Village A and Hong Kong stocks both fell first and then rose.
The major indices also quickly turned red intraday.
For example, the CSI 300 index trend throughout the day is as follows, but unfortunately it has dived and fallen back in the afternoon, otherwise the performance is still okay, and it basically bears the bearish.
Source: iFind, as of April 11, 2024
This also indirectly shows that the market has become accustomed to the corresponding bearishness and has been digested by the market.
On the contrary, as soon as there is a big fall, there will be funds to rush in, which is a relatively positive signal.
2. There is no doubt about it!
If the time period is stretched a little longer.
Looking back on the Spring Festival this year, since the round of deep V rebound in Village A, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a high of 3,090 points, and has recently hit the second highest point of 3,085 points. In the same period, the amount of energy is quite good, often breaking trillions!
But the strange thing is that in the case of an average daily volume of trillions, the two surges failed to reach 3,100 points.
Now the amount of energy is a step lower than before, at about 800 billion......
In addition, there are multiple broad-based indices, and the technical side has a short-term "M head" flavor. Of course, it may also rebound again, and if it can't go up again, there may be a "W-head" technical pattern in the short term.
Source: iFind, as of April 11, 2024
But the current environment is not the same as before!
The national team is still waiting for the rest of the country, and there are plenty of bullets on hand. The shorts have also converged a lot, and no one dares to hit the muzzle of the gun straight.
There are also many favorable policies along the way, as well as the appointment of the new village head, and the market atmosphere has changed greatly.
Therefore, even if it kills downward, there is less room for downside.
As Yang Wenbin, chairman and CEO of Haomai, said, "The short-term is not pessimistic, the medium-term is uncertain, and the long-term is still optimistic." The Chinese people are a hardworking and intelligent people, and there is no doubt that they will go uphill in the long run. ”
The main tone of my investment is to win by static braking and lying flat:
(1) Take 50-60% as the bottom position and hold it still.
(2) Do grid strategy and swing trading at 10-20% medium to light to avoid riding a big roller coaster. If it falls too much, it will take back and continue to increase the position.
(3) The rest is fixed income assets, cargo base and debt base.
Note: This is a personal opinion sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
3. Seize this investment opportunity
Recently, Aberdeen's performance has been significantly stronger than that of Village A.
In the past few years, they have been fighting together, and everyone has lived a hard life together, even more vegetables than Village A, how can Aberdeen fly alone in the blink of an eye? For example, on Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index "ignored" the fall of Village A and rose by 2%.
The performance in the past few days has also been very good, which is exactly the opposite of the pullback in Village A.
The Hang Seng Technology Index has risen even more recently, and there are also many giant companies in the index's constituent stocks, which continue to climb the pit. Can it still be laid out now?
In terms of the distribution of industry themes, I believe that the Hang Seng TECH Index system covers three types of assets:
First, Internet giants, such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba, Kuaishou, etc.
Second, cutting-edge new energy vehicle brands, such as Ideal, Xpeng, NIO, etc.
Third, high-end technology manufacturing, such as SMIC, Sunny Optical Technology, Hua Hong Semiconductor, etc.
These three types of assets are all mainstream tracks with high potential in the future.
We have also focused on the opportunities in the Hang Seng TECH Index before.
As of April 10, 2024, the latest price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng TECH Index is 2.13 times, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 21.93 times (excluding negative 18.98 times). Valuations are slightly higher than the previous bottom, but still at a low level, and it is worth seizing this opportunity.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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