From the performance of the European market last night, the final risk was turned into a disaster, and the decline in U.S. stocks finally narrowed, so as to calculate, the impact on today's A shares will not be very large, at most a low open and then quickly smash it will get up, the trend of this morning did not disappoint investors, low open high, of course, there is nothing to be happy about, after all, with a continuous big fall in exchange. But the upward rush is inadequate.
There was a certain change in the style of early trading, and the theme began to lead the rise, which determined that although there was no major change in the index in early trading today, the money-making effect of individual stocks was greatly improved. Mainly the science and technology theme represented by AI has begun to be active, AI has been suppressed recently, the main line is missing, and the hot spots are repeatedly rotated, making investors miserable.
Yesterday in the big fall, I still adhere to their own strategy, the principle of increasing positions on the big fall, this morning there was a small surplus, the market after a continuous big fall, and after an important boots landed, the uncertainty of the short-term disturbance of the market was clear, the Federal Reserve short-term interest rate hike or not, for A shares, just means that the boots landed, if the data is better than expected, the next interest rate cut is expected to be larger, the data is not ideal, just postpone the time of interest rate cuts, we are different from the United States monetary policy, so there is nothing to worry about, plus A shares fell sharply in advance, so the probability of falling again is not large, the trend of this morning is not much compared with expectations。 It's just that the domestic CPI data is less than expected, which casts a shadow on the market.
Yesterday's sharp fall seriously deviated from my prediction, but in terms of operation, I still adhere to the idea of increasing positions when the big fall falls, which is a game between rationality and the market. However, the premise is to strictly control the position and put the risk first at all times. Investment is a game of risk and opportunity, and the method is always more important than stock selection, and some people are dismissive of adding positions in yesterday's big fall. Whether you dare to increase your position or not varies from person to person, and there will never be a unified operating standard in this market. If you can't do it, it's not that others can't do it. There must be an inclusive mentality, there is no such thing as a stock god in this market. There's no need to be cynical about someone else's mistakes.
Yesterday someone laughed at me for not knowing whether to live or die, and I repeatedly emphasized that I should insist on doing the right thing and give the winning rate to the market. It's not that because the market went up this morning, I might be able to brag about myself. Doing stocks is a marathon, it is a protracted battle, the speed of the 100-meter rush is doomed to failure, and don't care about short-term gains and losses, don't care about a city and a place, and have a big picture. If you insist on operating your own system unwaveringly, success is unexpected.
There are several big hot spots on the market today, let's focus on the analysis:
1. Yesterday evening, the US stock market announced that the March CPI data exceeded expectations
It was a little higher than the forecast of 3.4%, up 3.5% year-on-year, indicating that inflation is still showing signs of rising, so that the agency expects the probability of a rate cut in June to be reduced to zero, possibly postponed to around July or September, and is still expected to cut interest rates about twice this year.
I have repeatedly stressed that the release of the Fed's CPI data in March only means that the impact on A-shares is that the boots have landed, and no matter whether the data is good or bad, it is good for A-shares in the short term.
2. This morning, the domestic CPI in March rose by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year
This data is really not ideal, CPI fell by 1 percentage point month-on-month, and PPI fell by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.
February was just one month, and it fell in March, and the improvement in February was related to the Spring Festival factor, which returned to normal in March due to the disturbance of seasonal factors. The decline in consumption did not have the results that everyone expected, and the sluggish demand led to insufficient production, and the decline in demand was passed on to the production side. The current situation of deflation has not improved, and people are still reluctant to spend. Consumption is not enough to drive the economy, and who does the troika rely on?
The market did not seem to be affected by the data in early trading, but rose slightly, mainly after a sharp decline, once the demand is insufficient, the next step may be to increase the stimulus of the policy. This year, the statistics bureau aims to achieve a CPI of 3%, judging from the data in March, it is far from the target, and will increase support for consumption through financial innovation and other means in the future.
After a rapid depreciation yesterday evening, the RMB exchange rate appreciated rapidly to around 7.25 in early trading.
Third, foreign-funded institutions compete to lay out long Chinese assets one after another
On April 10, Schroder China Power Equity Securities Investment Fund, the first equity fund under the wholly foreign-owned public Schroder Fund, was officially launched. It is reported that the fund will be helmed by investment veteran An Yun, select high-quality enterprises to layout, and strive to grasp the two major market opportunities of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Based on optimism about China's economic growth prospects, foreign institutions have been raising their voices to be long and long Chinese assets while increasing their deployment efforts.
After the Spring Festival, the voice of foreign investors collectively singing more than A shares is higher than a wave, but the real reflection is not obvious in the northbound funds, although the northbound funds as a whole are mainly net inflows, but the amount of inflows is not large, compared with the same period last year, a significant decrease, due to the great impact of northbound funds on the disk, belongs to the small size and large energy, mainly refers to the fact that the follow-up force behind foreign capital is very strong, and the power of foreign capital as a market vane is very strong. In addition, domestic investors have been firmly shorting, so the power of the disk is insufficient, and the index began to fall back after hitting 3090 at most, repeated shocks, and the confidence of the market was tested again. Of course, it is obviously unreasonable for us to blame foreign capital for the weakness of the market, and if the market wants to rise, it needs institutional funds to form a joint force.
First, the Fed's expectation of a sharp interest rate cut within the year has been greatly reduced, and the RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate slightly, and second, domestic institutions continue to have a large net outflow, which affects the confidence of foreign capital to do long, and foreign capital will inevitably waver. Third, Fitch downgraded the outlook for the mainland's sovereign credit rating yesterday. There are many reasons why foreign capital began to hesitate, even if it was a small net outflow of foreign capital this morning.
Of course, over time, we are confident that foreign investors will be long in China, with the lowest market valuation in the world, policies to increase market reforms, and economic growth in the forefront of the world's major economies.
Fourth, how will the market go in the afternoon?
As of 11 o'clock at noon, the amount of energy shrank by about 26 billion than yesterday, and yesterday's volume was only more than 830 billion, if at this rate, today's volume is estimated to be only about 800 billion, and the amount can shrink sharply. Foreign investors are hesitant.
If today's reversal is not strong, the short-term trend is still difficult to say optimistic, for the medium line, my thinking is very clear, I am firm confidence bullish. However, it does not mean that I may bear the risk of a sharp decline in the short term, and the short-term position is still under the premise of keeping the position unchanged at 5 percent, and the position will be increased to 7 percent for rolling operation every time there is a sharp fall.
After the release of important domestic data, it was disappointing, and it was impossible to find the excitement to drive the weight rise, and there was a short-term dilemma. It would be nice to be able to maintain a sideways movement in the afternoon. If the inflow of foreign capital increases, it can only go up first.