In China in the 60s of the 20th century, a prophecy about the future quietly caused waves in academic circles. This prophecy came from a well-known economist whose name was Ma Yinchu. He predicts that if China's current population growth rate continues, it will reach an unimaginable number of 2.6 billion by 2003. This number is not only a wake-up call, but also an unsolved mystery, which hides countless challenges and unknown futures.
Ma Yinchu's prediction was not groundless, but based on an in-depth analysis of data from China's first national census in 1953. His conclusion was simple and straightforward: China urgently needs to control population growth. However, when this prophecy was brought into broad daylight, it was not widely recognized and supported. Instead, it sparked controversy and even led to a huge turning point in Ma's career.
1. Reflections on China's first population census
In the early years of the founding of the People's Republic of China, China gradually got rid of the chaos caused by the long-term war, and social order began to be restored, providing a quiet and fertile soil for scientific research and academic exploration. In this context, Ma Yinchu, a scholar who had studied for a doctorate in the United States, returned to the embrace of his motherland with a deep understanding and enthusiasm for economics. He quickly gained widespread recognition in the academic community as a prestigious professor of economics. When dealing with complex economic theories and grand social issues, Ma Yinchu has always been able to contribute to China's economic research with his profound insights and rigorous attitude.
Ma's interest in demography stemmed in part from his in-depth knowledge of economics. Among the many branches of economics, the issue of population occupies an extremely important position, affecting the labor market, consumer demand, and even the long-term development plan of the country. So when Chinese mainland conducted its first census since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1953, the keen scholar was immediately drawn to the far-reaching implications.
When the results of Chinese mainland's first census in 1953 were released, showing a natural growth rate of 2 percent, the figure attracted widespread attention. However, Ma Yinchu is skeptical, and does not believe that such a calculation can accurately reflect the actual growth of the Chinese population. At that time, most people were positive about the census data, believing that it was a great advance in the field of social sciences since the founding of the People's Republic of China. However, Ma Yinchu, with his profound background in the field of economics and scientific spirit, questioned this.
Ma Yinchu knew that the calculation of population growth rate could not be based solely on the simple subtraction of birth and death rates. This calculation method ignores multiple factors such as population migration and age structure, which can lead to misunderstandings about the actual population growth. So he embarked on a complex series of calculations and analyses in the hope of finding a more accurate measure.
After careful research, Ma Yin initially found that by June 30, 1953, the population of Chinese mainland was about 600 million, and it was growing by at least 13.2 million people per year. This figure far exceeded the expectations of most people at the time, and far exceeded the rate of growth that could be reflected by simply subtracting the birth and death rates. This discovery deeply worried Ma Yinchu, who realized that if population growth continued at this rate, it would pose a huge challenge to the country's future development.
After an in-depth analysis, Ma predicts that if this rate of growth continues, China's population will reach 2.6 billion by 2003. This forecast was almost twice that of the Chinese population at the time. Ma Yinchu knew that even at that time, China's per capita resource allocation was already at a low level, and if the population doubled, the problem of resource constraints would be even more acute. The pressure on food, water resources, housing, education and other aspects will be unimaginable, which will be a huge test for social stability and economic development.
This insight into the future led Ma to begin researching the necessity and possible solutions for population control. His calculations are not only based on scientific methods, but also fully take into account the actual needs of socio-economic development and the quality of people's lives. Ma Yinchu knew that academic research and theoretical analysis alone were not enough, and that this important message must be conveyed to policymakers and the public in order to promote widespread concern and practical action on population issues.
2. Ma Yinchu's Population Control Initiative
In the spring of 1957, Ma Yinchu's theory of population control had matured, and he decided to bring his research results and thinking to the broader public sphere. He first chose the important platform of the Supreme Council of State and directly put forward the idea of "population control" to the country's decision-making level. This courageous action not only reflects the urgency of Ma Yinchu's deep understanding of population issues, but also demonstrates his sense of social responsibility as a scholar.
At the Supreme Council of State, Ma Yinchu elaborated on his theories and research results on population control, including his projections from analyzing the 1953 census data, and how the Chinese population would explode if control measures were not taken, thus putting great pressure on the country's resources, environment, and social stability. Although his speech did not immediately resonate widely at the conference, it undoubtedly laid the groundwork for subsequent population policy discussions.
In the same year, instead of being discouraged by his relative indifference at the State Council, Ma Yinchu became more active in popularizing his views on population control to the public. He gave a public lecture on population issues in the dining room of Peking University, an event that attracted considerable attention at the time. In his speech, Ma Yinchu not only reiterated his views on the scientific analysis and far-reaching impact of population growth, but also detailed the successful experiences and lessons of other countries in population control. He stressed that China needs to formulate effective population policies according to its own actual situation to avoid serious socio-economic problems that it may face in the future.
Then, in order to ensure that his views could be more widely discussed and understood, Ma Yinchu compiled his ideas on population control into a book, The New Population Theory, and submitted them to the National People's Congress as a proposal. This move is undoubtedly the culmination of his years of research, and it is also a manifestation of his deep personal concern for China's future development. The New Population Theory elaborates on the population challenges facing China, the need for population control, and possible population policy recommendations, and attempts to provide a policy solution to China's population problem.
3. Challenges and criticisms
In the early 60s of the 20th century, Ma Yinchu faced unprecedented challenges because of his advanced views on population control. His warnings about the potentially serious consequences of China's rapidly growing population were not universally accepted by the government and society at the time. On the contrary, his theories and proposals have sparked fierce controversy and have even met with some official and public opposition.
In 1960, the controversy reached its climax. Ma Yinchu's insistence and his public advocacy on population issues were seen as a challenge to the policy of the time. Under this pressure, he was forced to resign as president of Peking University. This position not only represents his highest honor in the academic world, but also serves as an important platform for his academic research and teaching. In addition, he was removed from his position on the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, further limiting his influence in policymaking.
What's more, Ma Yinchu was even deprived of the right to publish articles, which is undoubtedly a great blow to a scholar. In those days, academic papers and public speeches were the main ways for scholars to exchange ideas and share research results. The loss of this right meant that Ma Yinchu was unable to communicate with his peers through formal academic channels and to educate the public about his concept of population control.
Fourth, Ma Yinchu, who adheres to academics
After being forced to leave his position as president of Peking University and a member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, Ma Yinchu faced not only major career challenges, but also pressure and misunderstandings from all walks of life. Against this backdrop, many may choose to retreat or turn to other "safe" areas of research. However, Ma Yinchu did not choose this relatively easy path, and his enthusiasm and dedication to scientific research were not weakened by external pressure.
During the days when he was forced to stay at home, Ma Yinchu did not have any public podium to give speeches on, and no academic journals to publish his research results. Faced with such limitations, he chose a more difficult path – to continue his in-depth academic research at home. Ma Yinchu's research interests are wide-ranging, but he is particularly interested in agronomy, which is an important area directly related to population growth and food security.
In the years that followed, Ma Yinchu delved into China's agricultural production, land use, crop improvement, and other aspects. He is well aware that increased agricultural production is the key to solving the problem of food shortages caused by population growth. Despite the lack of laboratory support, Ma Yinchu still used his rich knowledge and research materials accumulated in his early years to conduct a large number of literature reviews and theoretical analysis.
Ma Yinchu set up a temporary research room at home, collected various books and materials on agricultural science, and exchanged letters with scholars at home and abroad to discuss the latest progress and research directions of agricultural science. His home gradually became an informal academic exchange center, and although he could not express his views publicly, he continued to contribute to the development of Chinese agronomy through private exchanges.
After several years of hard work, Ma Yinchu completed a huge work on agricultural research, with a total word count of one million words. This work covers a wide range of topics, from agricultural history and land systems to crop cultivation techniques and agroecology. At that time, such a work was almost unprecedented, and it was not only a major achievement of Ma Yinchu's personal academic career, but also an important contribution to the field of Chinese agricultural research.
Although Ma Yinchu did not have the opportunity to publish this work when he completed it, his research results gradually spread in academic circles. Many later researchers have drawn inspiration and guidance from Ma Yinchu's work, and his theories and discoveries have had a profound impact on the development of agricultural science in China and around the world.
Yi Xianghe,Wang Cuirong.Ma Yinchu Population Control Thought[J].Journal of Social Sciences of Hunan Normal University,2011,40(1):71-74.)