Humanoid robots were unveiled at the NVIDIA GTC conference
On March 19, 2024, Beijing time, NVIDIA held the 2024 GTC conference, in which for the field of robotics, NVIDIA launched the GR00T robot general base model, and Jetson Thor, a new robot computer based on the NVIDIA Thor SoC platform. 1) GR00T robot general basic model: This model can enable humanoid robots to understand natural language and imitate actions through language, video and human demonstrations, and further improve the coordination and flexibility of robots. 2) Jetson Thor: The computing platform has a built-in Blackwell GPU with an AI computing performance of 800TFLOPs, and is capable of performing complex tasks and processing multiple sensors using the Transformer engine in addition to running AI models including the GR00T. In addition, NVIDIA has also upgraded its developer platform, which allows developers to continuously improve the learning ability of their robots on the NVIDIA ISAAC robot platform.
Humanoid robots
Taking Tesla Optimus as an example, humanoid robots are generally composed of an actuation system, a visual perception system, a tactile perception system, computer control hardware, a battery pack, and structural parts. In terms of specific parts, the ranking by value mainly includes frameless torque motors (21%), reducers (16%), force sensors (16%), lead screws (14%), coreless motors (4%), IMU sensors (1%) and other components (28%).
Downstream application scenarios of humanoid robots
Industry experts said that the development of humanoid robots can be divided into three stages.
Phase 1: As of 2026, humanoid robots are limited by their operation and control capabilities, and can only replace repetitive labor, unable to perform more complex tasks, and the application scenarios are relatively limited, and the potential downstream application scenarios are manufacturing, heavy industry and other factories.
The second stage: as of 2030, the application effect of humanoid robots in factories has been verified, and the operation and control capabilities of humanoid robots in the development of science and technology have increased significantly, humanoid robots have begun to go to various factories, and a small number of commercial and service industries have begun to try humanoid robots.
The third stage: By 2035, the combined application of large-scale model AI and humanoid robots will be implemented, embodied intelligence will become a reality, the public's acceptance of humanoid robots will reach its peak, humanoid robots can think and act like humans, and humanoid robots will be widely used in the service industry and begin to enter the family.
At present, humanoid robots have entered the stage of industrialization, and intelligent manufacturing, especially in the field of automobile manufacturing, may become the first large-scale application field. Recently, UBTECH's industrial humanoid robot Walker S has entered the assembly workshop of NIO's second advanced manufacturing base for on-site "training".
It is incorporated into the new qualitative productivity
The 2024 government work report proposes to "accelerate the development of new quality productivity", and the special program "China Moves to the New" of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress has entered relevant companies and reported that humanoid robots have become a hot field for the development of new quality productivity. Humanoid robots have the dual attributes of AI + high-end manufacturing, which is expected to open up new models and new formats of high-end manufacturing, and enhance the comprehensive strength of mainland science and technology and manufacturing. In the long run, in the context of the decline of the mainland's demographic dividend, the rise of labor costs, and the acceleration of artificial substitution in various industries, humanoid robots will not be limited to a specific field, but will be used in many scenarios such as manufacturing, social services, family services, and elderly care, and have compatibility with comprehensive tasks compared with traditional robots.
Future markets and outlook
According to GGII (Advanced Industry Research Institute), it is expected that by 2030, the global humanoid robot market size is expected to exceed 20 billion US dollars, of which China is expected to reach 5 billion US dollars, of which mechanical parts are an important part of humanoid robots, according to the calculation of Orient Securities, the market space of each component is:
Frameless torque motors: Frameless torque motors are used in the torso linear actuators and rotary actuators of humanoid robots, and it is estimated that when the output of Tesla's humanoid robots reaches 1 million units, the global frameless torque motor market space may increase by 22.4 billion yuan.
Reducer: Reducer is used in hand knuckle actuators and torso rotary actuators of humanoid robots, and it is expected that when the output of Tesla's humanoid robots reaches 1 million units, the global reducer market space may increase by 11.2 billion yuan.
Sensors: 1) Six-dimensional force/torque sensor: applied to the wrist and ankle of humanoid robots, according to GGII's forecast, the market size of China's six-dimensional force/torque sensor will exceed 1.5 billion yuan in 2027. 2) Flexible tactile sensor/electronic skin: It can detect the characteristics of contact force, temperature, humidity, vibration, material, soft and hard with the environment, and is an important sensor for the robot to directly perceive the role of the environment. 3) MEMS Pressure Sensors: According to Mordor intelligence, the MEMS pressure sensor market size is estimated to be $2.36 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $3.19 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.20% during 2023-2028.
Lead screws: 1) Ball screws: According to Verified Market Research, the global ball screw market will reach about $2.813 billion in 2030. 2) Planetary roller screws: Planetary roller screws are used in the torso linear actuators of humanoid robots, and it is expected that when the output of Tesla's humanoid robots reaches 1 million units, the global planetary roller screw market space may increase by 10 billion yuan. 3) Trapezoidal lead screw: simple structure but low transmission efficiency, and at the same time has the characteristics of good self-locking and long life.
Coreless motor: The coreless motor is used in the hand knuckle actuator of humanoid robots, and it is estimated that when the output of Tesla's humanoid robot reaches 1 million units, the global coreless motor market space may increase by 7.2 billion yuan.
Figure: Analysis and forecast of Tesla's Optimus core components
Source: Tesla AI Day, Orient Securities
On the whole, the development of humanoid robots has been from the underlying technology, industrial chain support to policy support, all have the prerequisites for development, the development of humanoid robots industry has become a trend, and bring important investment opportunities. At the same time, considering that mainland robot industry chain related companies have significant supply chain advantages in the world, especially in core links such as sensors and actuators, mainland is expected to rely on product comprehensiveness, scale manufacturing capabilities and cost reduction capabilities, combined with the commercialization progress of artificial intelligence, mainland industry chain companies are expected to achieve performance growth. At the same time, with the blessing of artificial intelligence on robots, artificial intelligence is also expected to develop together with humanoid robots, which further increases the difficulty of investment. Therefore, it is a better choice to invest in corresponding index products. The related index products mainly include: Robot 100 ETF (159530), Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819, OTC Connect Class A: 012733; Class C: 012734), Cloud Computing ETF (516510, OTC Connect Class A: 017853; Class C: 017854), Software 30 ETF (562930).
Chart: Distribution of the primary industry of the relevant index Shenyin Wanguo
Source: Wind, as of 2023/3/20.
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