Public Offering China Research Group | Dingding
编辑、统筹 | Jamie
制作 | Jessica
At this time, Cai Songsong has been called "the former top public offering". Half a year after leaving office, his controversy and fame are still as great as they were at the beginning. The market has not forgotten the "soul of Sino Analytica".
Sino Asset Management announced in September 2023 that Cai Songsong would step down from all fund products under management. Cai Songsong is good at semiconductors and is known as the "God of Semiconductors", and his representative product "Sino Growth" has a return rate of 95.44% in 2019, and has been in charge of assets of 40.9 billion yuan at its peak in 2020.
Until leaving Sino Fund, Cai Songsong managed a total of 5 funds, namely Sino Growth, Sino Hexin, Sino Positive Return A, Sino Optimal Allocation A, and Sino Innovation Drive A, with returns of 71.70%, 79.98%, -1.84%, 6.73% and -5.94% respectively.
In the short period of more than 4 years that Cai Songsong served as a fund manager, investors gave him the titles of "Kunkun" and "Lanlan". Between "Cai Huang" and "Cai Dog", "God of Wealth" and "Crazy Gambler", investors' love and hate are vividly displayed.
A well-known joke is: "The first growth of a young person is called the growth of Nuoan." ”
Review Cai Songsong, set as history, in order to learn from the comers.
"All in" information technology
In 2019, Cai Songsong was ordered to take over the growth of Nuoan, which has a net value of about 0.6 yuan and a scale of 380 million yuan. Immediately after that, the clearance type was greatly adjusted.
In the first quarter of 2019, the top 10 heavy stocks were China Great Wall, Sugon, Inspur Software, GigaDevice, China Software, Puyang Huicheng, Dianke Network Security, TransInfo Technology, Hailian Jinhui, and China Television Media. Among them, except for Inspur Software and China Software, the other 8 stocks are all new. Seven of the top 10 heavyweights belong to the information technology sector.
It was in the first quarter of 2019 that the Shanghai Composite Index recorded its largest quarterly gain in 17 quarters, up 23.93%. Cai Songsong's selection of targets performed even better, and 9 of the top ten heavy stocks outperformed the market. Its largest heavy stocks, China Great Wall, rose 123.00% in the quarter, Sugon rose 68.00%, Inspur Software rose 78.74%, GigaDevice rose 63.01%, China Software rose 165.17%, Puyang Huicheng rose 60.99%, Dianke Network Security rose 67.69%, TransInfo Technology rose 70.23%, and China Television Media 132.77%. Only 1 Hailian Jinhui in the optional consumer industry underperformed the market.
In the quarter, Sino Analytica's net growth value surged 43.87%.
In the 2019 interim report, the top 10 heavy stocks of Sino Analytica have changed significantly, namely China Software, China Great Wall, Dianke Network Security, Beixinyuan, Sanlian Hongpu, Inspur Software, ZTE, Jingce Electronics, Montnets Technology, and Shengbang Shares. Among them, 6 are new entrants and 9 belong to the information technology industry.
In the third quarter of 2019, the top 10 heavy stocks of Sino Analytica were adjusted to China Software, GigaDevice, Weir Shares, Zhuosheng Micro, China Great Wall, Beijing Junzheng, Dongshan Precision, Shengbang Shares, Wingtech Technology, and Shengyi Technology. Among them, 7 are new entrants and 10 belong to the information technology industry.
After a set of combination punches, the net unit value of Sino Analytica successfully returned to more than 1 yuan, and the fund scale swelled to 2.67 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 6 times in three quarters.
Cai Songsong, who tasted the sweetness, quickly focused on the information technology industry, and since the third quarter report of 2019, only the information technology industry companies have been among the top ten heavy stocks of Sino Analytica's growth.
At that time, a senior fund manager commented on Cai Songsong, "I have never seen such an investment." ”
Cai Songsong only took three quarters of substantial rebalancing, after which the top ten heavy stocks of Sino Analytica tended to be relatively stable, although there were adjustments every quarter, but the number of new stocks decreased significantly. According to the third quarter report of 2023, until his departure from Sino Growth, Shengbang shares have been heavily held for 18 consecutive quarters, Zhuosheng Micro, Weir shares, and GigaDevice have been heavy for 17 consecutive quarters, and NAURA has been heavy for 16 consecutive quarters.
In 2019, the annual return of Sino Analytica growth was as high as 95.44%, which made the fledgling Cai Songsong famous, and the scale of the fund also expanded rapidly. In 2020 and 2021, Cai Songsong's annual returns on Sino Analytica growth were 39.10% and 22.50% respectively, and the year-end scale reached 32.776 billion yuan and 27.408 billion yuan respectively.
Big fall
Cai Songsong's "All in" information technology, the tuyere is coming, returning to heaven, and the tuyere is gone, just like riding a roller coaster.
In 2022, subject to factors such as weak demand for consumer electronics and high inventories, the semiconductor industry will enter a period of deep adjustment.
At the end of 2022, the top ten heavy stocks of Sino Analytica, Zhuosheng Micro, Shengbang, China Micro Corporation, North Huachuang, Weir Shares, Beijing Junzheng, GigaDevice, Shanghai Silicon Industry, San'an Optoelectronics, and VeriSilicon fell by 43.85%, 16.05%, 35.03%, 66.39%, 47.33%, 41.30%, 31.80%, 54.10%, and 43.03% respectively in 2022.
Annihilated.
In 2022, Cai Songsong's annual return on Sino Analytica growth will be -40.04%, which will fall off the altar.
In 2023, ChatGPT will be launched, and artificial intelligence will be on the rise. Cai Songsong, who is known for semiconductor investment, has attracted much attention from the industry. He said in the first quarter report of Sino Analytica Growth in 2023 that the new demand will bring the inflection point of the chip cycle ahead of schedule.
However, at the end of the first quarter of 2023, the top ten heavy stocks of Sino Analytica have not made major adjustments, namely Zhuosheng Micro, China Micro Corporation, Shengbang Shares, North Huachuang, VeriSilicon, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Beijing Junzheng, Weir Shares, San'an Optoelectronics, and GigaDevice, which are consistent with the previous quarter.
The rapid rise in the information technology sector was short-lived, with a 21.81% increase in the first quarter of 2023, followed by an overall correction of 2.14%, 11.91%, and 1.89% in the next three quarters. For the whole of 2023, the information technology sector is up 5.87%.
However, Sino Analytica, managed by Cai Songsong, did not outperform the information technology sector in 2023, with an annual return of -3.15%.
He manages Sino Analytica's Positive Return A, which is a relatively small fund, and has adopted aggressive rebalancing in Q1 and Q2 2023. The top 10 heavy stocks in the first quarter of 2023 are AMEC, Changchuan Technology, Huahai Qingke, Shengmei Shanghai, Tuojing Technology, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Weir Shares, Inspur Information, SMIC, and Longsys. The top ten heavy stocks in the second quarter were Sugon, Cambrian-U, Inspur Information, Shensanda A, 360, Cambridge Technology, Jingjiawei, Tuowei Information, Zhongji Innolight, and iFLYTEK.
In the first quarter of 2023, Sino Analytica actively returned to reap the revenue champion in the first quarter of 2023, with a scale increase of more than 10 times.
This familiar scene seems to indicate that Cai Songsong wants to replicate the story of Sino Analytica's growth on several smaller funds, but history will not simply repeat itself.
Overall, Sino Analytica's performance in 2023 is better than Sino Analytica's growth, with an annual return of 5.01%, but it is still slightly lower than the overall increase in the information technology industry.
Cai Songsong, who failed in his gamble, entered the countdown to leave. In May 2023, Cai Songsong stepped down as Sino Analytica Innovation Drive A. In July 2023, he stepped down as Sino Analytica's Optimized Configuration A. The remaining 3 products will all be resigned on September 28, 2023.
Success or failure is a "cycle"
This young man who is a top student and a prodigy entered the computer science major of the junior class of USTC in 2001 at the age of 15. At the master's and doctoral stage, Cai Songsong studied at the Institute of Computing Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, focusing on chip design, and obtained a doctorate at the age of 25.
He has successively worked in the Institute of Computing Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tianjin Feiteng Information Technology Co., Ltd., and Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. In 2017, he joined Sino Asset Management as a researcher and became a fund manager in February 2019.
When he first served as a fund manager, Cai Songsong only had 4 years of experience in the securities industry, and had not experienced a complete economic cycle, even the semiconductor cycle that he was good at.
Extreme style is the key to Cai Songsong's fame. Cai Songsong once said in the report on the growth of Sino Analytica, "to be the sharpest spear in the semiconductor sector".
However, this strategy of pressing the track and betting on the growth of the company has also made many people in the industry sigh that "Manager Cai" is using VC to do the secondary market.
His style of operation is obviously not suitable for the average investor, and holding his fund requires an extremely strong heart. The "roller coaster" experience he brought to investors was also criticized by many investors who entered the market later.
With this investment method, how to smoothly cross the bull and bear? In its less than five years of experience in managing public funds, it cannot be verified for the time being.
"I know that investing in technology growth in its purest form may not be a smooth road, but a bumpy one, with a lot of potential for failure. But I still want to try, and I'm comfortable with the results of my best efforts. Cai Songsong once said.
The price of defeat is borne by the people. In 2022 alone, Sino Analytica will lose 12.930 billion yuan, including an investment loss of 2.718 billion yuan and a fair value change loss of 9.815 billion yuan.
After Manager Cai's resignation, the industry condemned it, which was nothing more than how much money was lost to a large number of people who entered the market at a high level, and how much management fees were earned by Nuoan Fund.
Even if you don't calculate it in detail, you know that Nuoan Fund has earned enough management fees with Cai Songsong's star effect.
In the future, how to control the drawdown is a question left to Sino Fund. After all, only by living up to investors can we go further.
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