Tensions in the South China Sea have been going on for months, and Marcos Jr. seems to be trying to ease the mood by communicating with the Chinese leadership, especially for fear of using water cannons or even misfire. However, even if Marcos Jr. wants to "pause" the competition, the United States will not follow his wishes, not only pulling the Philippine military to participate in tropical environmental exercises, but also constantly increasing the number of troops stationed in the Philippines. Marcos Jr. was dumbfounded, it turned out that this is the end of the fire for the United States, and the development of the situation is not what you want.
On April 8, Philippine President John Kos Jr. said the Philippine government would do everything possible to ease tensions with China in the South China Sea, and he called for dialogue with China to prevent more incidents such as ship collisions and the use of water cannons in the South China Sea, Sputnik news agency reported. It can be seen that Marcos Jr. has also changed his attitude slightly, changed his previous tough style, and began to speak softly.
Why did Marcos Jr. suddenly "put the brakes" on the escalating tensions that had escalated in the early stage? First, it may be that Marcos Jr. finally realized that he had "gone too far" in the South China Sea and wanted to "cool down" the South China Sea, which was very likely to go wrong. Marcos Jr. provoked for most of the year, but the Chinese side was not indifferent; in addition to sending coast guard law enforcement ships to break the Philippine side's plot to transport building materials to Ren'ai Jiao in a professional and safe way of dispersion control, it also held military exercises in the South China Sea on many occasions; from 7 to 8 April, the Southern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army organized naval and air forces to position the South China Sea to carry out exercises and training activities such as fighter patrols and vigilance, joint naval and air assaults, and combat readiness patrols of warship formations.
Second, this statement may just be Marcos Jr.'s "delaying tactic". Since the Ren'ai Jiao incident in early August last year, the current round of confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has lasted for a full eight months, from Ren'ai Jiao, Huangyan Dao to Tie Tie Jiao, and the Philippine law enforcement ships and supply ships are only facing the ships of the Chinese coast guard, and they are powerless to parry, and they are simply unable to break through the navigation control of the coast guard law enforcement vessels.
However, it is not so easy for Marcos Jr. to "put out the fire and cool down" the tense situation in the South China Sea, even if we do not consider China's previous repeated goodwill and initiative to extend an olive branch to peace talks, the Philippines still stubbornly refuses to dialogue, and the United States will not let Marcos Jr. easily ease the situation, in other words, the United States has cut off the Philippines' back road, and Marcos Jr. has fallen into the United States' plan. According to US media reports on April 9, at the juncture of escalating tensions in the South China Sea and Marcos Jr.'s intention to de-escalate, the US Army is stepping up joint field training with the Philippine military to improve combat readiness, including the ability to fight in tropical jungles and remote island conditions. It has been learned that the US military will hold annual military exercises, including the "Shield" exercise that has just begun and the "Shoulder to Shoulder" exercise to be held at the end of the month.
Since the beginning of 2023, Marcos Jr.'s "luring the wolf into the house" has been reintroduced with the United States to intimidate China, and several military bases have been opened for the use of the US military, and the Taiwan Strait issue has been involved, because some bases are only less than 200 kilometers away from Taiwan, Marcos Jr. claimed that China "once the reunification of Taiwan is carried out by force, these bases will be useful for the US military to protect Taiwan", which is a naked provocation to China.
The Marcos Jr. administration has not only played the "Taiwan card," but has also been aggressive in the so-called "joint patrol of the South China Sea" by the navies of the United States and the Philippines and even many countries. In fact, at the same time that Marcos Jr. made a statement to ease the situation, the Philippines also cooperated with the United States, Australia, and Japan to hold a joint naval and air exercise in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippine territorial waters in the South China Sea. The Philippines is also conducting "anti-submarine warfare" exercises near Palawan Island, making it clear that it is learning from the United States' rhetoric and reality.
In any case, now that the Philippines has been dragged into the abyss by the United States, it is already a certainty, and it is basically difficult to turn back if it still fantasizes about improving relations with China. Regardless of whether Marcos Jr. has ulterior motives or is genuinely sincere in easing tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines has long been dragged down by the United States into an anti-China trap, taking advantage of the fire for the United States, and even vainly trying to use foreign powers to help itself fight against China.
Where should the Philippines go next? Specifically, how should it deal with the current embarrassing situation? In fact, it is very simple, that is, it will continue to show goodwill to China, admit that its previous actions have been "reckless" or even "wrong" on international occasions, and take the initiative to apologize to China, so that China may be able to see the sincerity of the Philippine side to admit its mistakes and repent.
But it's not enough to just show goodwill, it also requires substantive action, such as the complete towing of the dilapidated Sierra Madre from Second Thomas Shoal. China's strategy is to prevent the Philippines from transporting building materials to reinforce the illegal "beached" warship, so that it will accelerate aging and wear out in the high-salt and high-humidity marine environment, and finally collapse, and the Philippines will no longer have a reason to forcibly stay on Ren'ai Jiao.
If the wrecked ship that was illegally "beached" on Ren'ai Jiao was really towed away, and the national sentiment in the Philippines was so high, would Marcos Jr. have the courage to do so? If he really dared to do this, then he would be called a turn back to the shore, but there is no doubt that the voice of scolding him in the Philippines can drown him out, and it will be a small matter for him to step down and be imprisoned if he is not careful. You must know that the Marcos family and the Duterte family have been attacking each other before, and the Philippine political arena has been full of contradictions, and even Marcos Jr.'s sister has openly opposed his actions against China before.
On the one hand, he was coerced by domestic national sentiments and could not come to Taiwan, and it was difficult to pull down his face to show softness to China, and on the other hand, he was forced to a dead end by the United States, and his back road was cut off, and he couldn't retreat if he wanted to, and now he is caught in a dilemma.