Author|Zhu Hualei,Editor|Gu Jinfeng
Source: Jufeng Investment Advisory, Good Stock Application
Jufeng Investment Advisor's latest column "Leading Analysis" was officially launched. There will always be a sector or concept in the A-share market to lead the market to rise during the stage time, and this column will focus on the stocks with the highest popularity or the most consecutive stocks in the current market for analysis, with the aim of screening out the value investment targets with "real materials" from the hot spots.
Recently, the heat of solid-state batteries in the market has caught up with the heat of the gold sector, and most of the gold stocks have been at historical highs, and the short-term chasing high risk has gradually become prominent. However, as a new concept of solid-state batteries, most of them are lithium battery stocks that are at the bottom after a sharp pullback in the previous two years. In terms of industry expectations, solid-state batteries also give people unlimited room for reverie.
From 2023 to 20230, solid-state battery shipments are expected to maintain high growth
On the one hand, there is a lot of news about the application of solid-state batteries in the fields of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics, and the release of new products, on the other hand, the possibility of solid-state batteries in downstream applications such as low-altitude aircraft has caused a boom. At present, the inflection point of mass production and application of solid-state batteries is accelerating, and most of the market is optimistic about the development potential of solid-state batteries as the next generation of battery technology. According to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Solid-State Battery Industry (2024)" released by EVTank, it is expected that by 2030, the global shipment of solid-state batteries will reach 614.1GWh, and the penetration rate in the overall lithium battery is expected to be about 10%, and the market size will exceed 250 billion yuan, of which the main ones are semi-solid-state batteries.
Pay attention to Jufeng Investment Advisor (jfinfo)/good stock application, and the analysis and research report of the leading target of "Institutional Research and Selection" is waiting for you to get!
Look for definitive investment opportunities in the solid-state battery industry
It can be seen from the solid-state battery industry chain that the biggest difference between solid-state batteries and liquid lithium batteries is the difference in raw materials, and the raw materials required for solid-state are mostly metal zirconium, germanium, lanthanum.
The answer to this question is also very finding, solid-state batteries as an emerging product, depending on which product is in mass production first, then these companies are in the forefront of the industry in terms of relevant technical level and competitiveness, and their investment value will be more certain.
The cathode material leader of Dangsheng Technology is well deserved
Judging from the progress of the current industry product landing, on the evening of April 8, the Zhiji L6 smart car was officially released, and the first-generation solid-state battery equipped with the car was named "light-year solid-state battery", with a capacity of 133kWh ultra-large capacity battery, which can enable Zhiji L6 to achieve a CLTC range of more than 1000 kilometers. The next day, the A-share solid-state battery sector ushered in a rising tide, of which the biggest increase on the day was the cathode material leader Dangsheng Technology, which closed up 18.22% on the same day, with a turnover of 4.21 billion yuan.
When you look further, you will find that the solid-state battery of SAIC Zhiji L6 is supplied by Qingtao Energy, and the cathode material supplier of Qingtao Energy's solid-state battery is Dangsheng Technology, and a closed loop of investment has been formed at this time. Dangsheng Technology is not only the upstream supplier of Qingtao Energy's solid-state batteries, but also provides solid-state battery materials for Weilan New Energy, Huineng Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium Battery. The above companies are all pioneers in the solid-state battery industry, Qingtao Energy is behind SAIC, Weilan New Energy has Huawei Hubble, Xiaomi Group, Geely Automobile investment.
The company's main business in 2023 is as follows
This comes from the company's own outstanding strength, Dangsheng Technology is the first listed company in China to take lithium battery cathode materials as its main business, and the ternary cathode materials will account for more than 90% of the revenue from 2019 to 2023. From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the top three companies in the market share of ternary materials in 2022 are 16% of Rongbai Technology, 15% of Tianjin Bamo (unlisted), and 11% of Dangsheng Technology.
Although Dangsheng Technology ranks third in terms of market share, its competitive advantage is the most obvious. In the first three quarters of 2023, the gross profit margin of Dangsheng Technology is as high as 18.28%, and the gross profit margin of Ronbay Technology is only 8.72%, and this gap is still widening. In the same period, the net profit margin of Dangsheng Technology was 11.88%, which was higher than the gross profit margin of Rongbai Technology, and its profitability ranked first in the industry. In terms of downstream customer income structure, Rongbai Technology is also healthier. Rongbai Technology is too dependent on large customers, CATL contributes more than 60% of its revenue, and has little right to speak, and the gross profit margin of cathode materials in the first half of 2023 is less than 6%.
The ternary cathode material industry maintains high growth, and the company's valuation is expected to increase
According to the statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery, in 2022, the mainland will ship 1.9 million tons of cathode materials, a year-on-year increase of 68.14%, and in 2023, it will ship 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.53%, of which lithium iron phosphate materials will account for 66.53%, ternary materials will account for 26.21%, and lithium cobalt oxide will account for 3.39%. The cathode material industry maintained high growth, and the downstream demand for power batteries and energy storage was strong.
By the end of 2023, the company's lithium battery materials business has a completed production capacity of 110,000 tons, an effective production capacity of 83,000 tons, and a capacity under construction of 40,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.3%. In the next two years, the company is still in the period of capacity expansion, and the company will strengthen the expansion of the upstream supply chain. The company cooperates with suppliers such as CITIC Guoan, CNGR, Huayou Cobalt, GEM and other suppliers in key mineral resources such as nickel, cobalt and lithium through signing long-term purchase orders, technical cooperation, investment and equity participation, etc., forming an industrial chain of "raw materials-precursors-cathode-batteries-car companies", and the scale effect of industrial integration is gradually emerging.
The price of ternary cathode materials has come to the bottom cycle and is expected to stabilize and rebound. In 2022, the highest price of ternary cathode materials will exceed 400,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials will drop to about 130,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2023. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has stopped falling, and ternary cathode materials have also shown signs of rebound. At present, the company's latest valuation is 13.5 times, far lower than the company's historical average valuation of 28.4 times, which is at the bottom of the company's valuation in the past three years, coupled with the rise of solid-state batteries, it is expected that the company's valuation is expected to be improved in 2024, which can be used as a leading source of cathode materials for solid-state batteries.
(Author: Zhu Hualei Practicing Certificate: A0680613030001)
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operation advice, and you shall operate at your own risk and profit and loss