According to Securities Star News, on April 10, 2024, China Youth Travel Service (600138) announced that the company would accept institutional research on April 3, 2024, with the participation of Industrial Securities, Northeast Securities, and Southwest Securities.
The details are as follows:
Q: What are the adjustments in management after Gubei Water Town's independent operation?Why is the recovery of Gubei Water Town not as good as that of Wuzhen in 2023?
A: Since May 2023, Gubei Water Town has successfully completed the management handover, and has achieved a smooth transition in terms of personnel, services, marketing and other aspects.
The difference in the degree of recovery between Gubei Water Town and Wuzhen is mainly due to the difference in the passenger flow structure of the two towns. Wuzhen is a national tourist destination with a high reputation throughout the country, while Gubei Water Town is mainly positioned in the small suburban market of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. In 2023, Beijing's tourism market will be hot, mainly due to tourists from other parts of the country entering Beijing, focusing more on traditional historical and cultural attractions such as the Forbidden City, Summer Palace, and museums. In the future, Gubei Water Town will focus on expanding the national passenger flow, making full use of the Simatai Great Wall brand to attract remote passenger flow.
Q: What is the plan for the future development of Gubei Water Town?
Answer: Gubei Water Town has been in operation for nearly 10 years, and the product type has not undergone major changes, basically maintaining its advantages in the Beijing tourism market. First, in terms of high-level conference reception, CYTS will also actively play the role of a shareholder of state-owned enterprises to promote the influence of Gubei Water Town in the high-level conference market and enhance the popularity of the country. The second is the update and replacement of the content of the scenic spot, Gubei Water Town will carry out a comprehensive combing, introduce more innovative activities, enrich the business format, focus on new investment, and plan its own products. The third is to make efforts in marketing channels to promote the overall improvement of Gubei Water Town's products and market position.
Q: What is the depreciation and amortization cost in Wuzhen in 2023?
A: Wuzhen has added 900 rooms in the past three years, which is an increase in annual depreciation and amortization compared with before the epidemic, and at the same time, the transfer of the original financial expenses that can be capitalized will increase some financial expenses. The centralized release of depreciation and financial expenses has brought certain pressure to the cost side of Wuzhen, but from another point of view, this part of the investment has laid a good foundation for Wuzhen's continuous improvement in the future. This year, our operational goals for Wuzhen are also mainly focused on increasing occupancy rate and per capita consumption.
Q: Is there an expectation of government subsidies?
A: There is uncertainty about government subsidies, depending on Wuzhen's contribution to taxes, investment and other aspects, as well as government funds.
Q: Gubei Water Town will control its costs well in 2023, what specific measures have been taken?
Answer: The cost of Gubei Water Town is a large amount of energy consumption and labor, and the energy consumption expenditure mainly relies on technology for fine management, and the labor is also strictly controlled, requiring matching with the tourist flow of the scenic spot, and one post is multi-functional and fully deployed. A lot of effort has been put into managing expenses during the pandemic, and this experience will continue. In the future, in terms of marketing and expenditure to ensure service quality, the cost side may match the business volume to increase, and the first thing is to ensure the overall performance and product quality improvement of Gubei Water Town, and the goal is to maximize the operating benefits of the scenic spot.
Q: How will Wuzhen increase the hotel occupancy rate in 2024 and is there any expectation for the unit price?
A: At present, the focus of Wuzhen's hotel is to improve the management of the embankment hotel and the Daoshe Village Hotel. In terms of positioning, the unit price of the two hotels is currently higher than that of ordinary hotels in Wuzhen Scenic Area, and will focus on expanding the exhibition market, giving full play to the advantages of independent hotels, and focusing on the promotion of independent hotel characteristics. In terms of marketing strategy, hotel characteristics are also an important starting point to realize that the characteristics of the hotel and the characteristics of the scenic spot complement each other. In terms of customer unit value, there are many influencing factors, which are more comprehensive indicators, and the variables are larger, such as an increase in passenger flow, which may lead to a decrease in customer unit value, which is difficult to predict.
Q: What is the capital expenditure plan of Gubei Water Town in 2024 and does it require shareholders to increase their capital?
Answer: At present, Gubei Water Town is mainly to supplement investment and small renovation of original facilities, and there is no major capital expenditure plan. Gubei Water Town's asset-liability ratio is not high, and it has its own financing ability, so from a financial point of view, there is no need for additional issuance by shareholders.
Q: How do you see the recovery trend of travel agency business in 2024?
A: The business of travel agencies is recovering positively, but there is still a big gap from the pre-epidemic level, especially in the outbound travel market. From the perspective of domestic travel, the supply side is relatively scattered, with about 56,000 travel agencies nationwide at the end of 2023, an increase of about 17,000 over 2019. The key target of large travel agencies is still focused on the outbound market, but it will take time to recover to the level of 2019 due to factors such as resources, price increases in destination countries and regions, and exchange rates. CYTS has a great advantage in outbound travel, the service system is perfect, it is not only a product supplier, but also attaches importance to channel building, and at the same time, it has also carried out internal resource integration, and in the case of the overall market recovery, CYTS travel agency business can do better.
Q: The per capita consumption of Wuzhen and Gubei Water Town in 2023 has increased significantly compared with 2019, and decreased compared with 2021 and 2022.
Answer: The proportion of overnight guests has a greater impact on the per capita consumption of scenic spots. In 2021 and 2022, the proportion of overnight guests in hotels is relatively high, and the unit price of guests is correspondingly higher. Passenger flow has gradually recovered after the pandemic, but the total supply of hotel rooms is limited, especially during the peak season, so it is normal for the average guest rate to decrease when the passenger flow increases significantly.
In 2023, compared with 2019, the unit price of customers will increase, on the one hand, the supply of hotel rooms in the scenic spot has increased in the past three years, and on the other hand, the scenic spot will continue to update and innovate business formats, enrich various activities in the scenic spot, and increase the consumption of tourists in the scenic spot.
CYTS (600138) main business: travel service business, integrated marketing business, scenic spot investment business, hotel operation business and other sectors.
According to the 2023 annual report of CYTS, the company's main revenue was 9.635 billion yuan, an increase of 50.15% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 194 million yuan, an increase of 158.16% year-on-year, and the non-net profit was 130 million yuan, an increase of 131.16% year-on-year, of which in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company's single-quarter main revenue was 2.90 billion yuan, an increase of 80.99% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was -12.2038 million yuan, an increase of 92.49% year-on-year; The non-net profit deducted in a single quarter was -63.3192 million yuan, an increase of 72.93% year-on-year, the debt ratio was 51.71%, the investment income was 99.7339 million yuan, the financial expenses were 235 million yuan, and the gross profit margin was 24.45%.
A total of 11 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 8 having a buy rating and 3 having an overweight rating, and the average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 13.13.
Here's the detailed earnings forecast information:
Margin data shows that the stock has a net financing inflow of 38,555,400 in the past three months, with an increase in the financing balance, and a net outflow of 5,658,500 with a decrease in the balance of securities borrowing and lending.
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