(Photo courtesy of Hero)
Guolian Securities resumed trading after 10 trading days //
Recently, the market attention of the brokerage sector has continued to increase. As of May 14, Wind Brokerage Concept Index (884780) closed up in the past four trading days, with an increase of 10.14% in the past month. There are 14 stocks in the index that have risen by more than 10% in the past month, and the top five gainers are Zheshang Securities, Guosheng Financial Holdings, Capital Securities, Pacific, and Founder Securities, with increases of 36.87%, 34.06%, 29.77%, 26.82%, and 21.91% respectively.
It is worth noting that in the afternoon of the same day, Guolian Securities issued an announcement that trading would resume on May 15. Guolian Securities announced that the company intends to purchase 100% of the shares of Minsheng Securities held by 46 counterparties such as Guolian Group and Fengquanyu through the issuance of A shares, and raise matching funds. The issue price of issuing shares to purchase assets is 11.31 yuan per share. At present, the audit and evaluation of the target company have not been completed, and the evaluation results of the target assets and the transaction price have not yet been determined. After the completion of this transaction, the investment banking business and securities brokerage business of the listed company will be significantly improved. The Company's A-shares will resume trading from the market open on May 15, 2024.
Previously, trading in the Company's A-share shares (601456.SH) was suspended from the market open on Friday, April 26, 2024. The company's Hong Kong stock (1456. HK) closed at HK$2.95 on April 25 and HK$4.40 on May 14, up 49.15% in the 12 trading days between April 26 and May 14.
From the perspective of industry catalysis, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges recently issued an announcement on the review meeting of the Listing Committee, which intends to review the company's issuance and listing application on May 16. Among them, 1 Shenzhen IPO issuance and listing application and 1 Shanghai refinancing application were reviewed, marking the official resumption of IPO review.
Since the Spring Festival this year, no IPO company has been reviewed by the Listing Committee for three consecutive months, and the last issuance review meeting of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was February 5, and the last issuance review meeting of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was February 7. According to the Dongguan Securities Research Report, according to Wind, the scale of IPO and refinancing in the market in the first quarter decreased by 63.71% and 70.03% year-on-year respectively, showing that the primary market is not prosperous. At present, the reconvening of the issuance and examination meeting that has been suspended for several months, and the recent improvement in the prosperity of the secondary market, the investment banking business of securities companies is expected to usher in marginal improvement.
At the industry level, the first quarterly reports of the current 44 listed securities companies have all been revealed. Guohai Securities pointed out that after experiencing a period of greater pressure on the quarterly report, the performance fundamentals of listed securities companies may usher in an inflection point. Considering that the overall bottom of the current sector has stabilized and the market as a whole has a warming trend, the "recommended" rating of the non-bank financial industry sector is maintained.
The industry is about to usher in a new wave of mergers and acquisitions //
Since the beginning of this year, there have been frequent equity changes in the industry. On April 25, Guolian Securities issued a suspension announcement on the planning of major asset restructuring matters. On May 8, Zheshang Securities announced that the board of directors agreed to the company's participation in the auction of 449 million shares of Guodu Securities held by Guohua Energy Investment Co., Ltd.
AVIC Securities believes that in the context of policies to encourage the securities industry to become better and stronger through mergers and acquisitions, industry mergers and acquisitions are expected to continue to heat up. Under the background of the regulator's clear encouragement of cultivating first-class investment banks and investment institutions, with the intensification of the Matthew effect in the industry, small and medium-sized securities firms may actively seek to be acquired, and it is expected that the industry will usher in a new wave of mergers and acquisitions. At present, mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry and the nationalization of securities companies have gradually become the two major development directions of securities companies.
In the long-term review, the stock price trend of brokerage stocks depends on the market cycle and the regulatory cycle, in which the market beta determines the trend. Industrial Securities said that the current stock-to-debt ratio is about 1.36, judging from the stock-to-debt ratio, the stock market has a high allocation value. At the same time, the wave of mergers and acquisitions in the industry may restart. At present, the PB valuation of the brokerage sector is only in the bottom range of about 4.7% since 2012, with a sufficient margin of safety, and the low valuation is catalyzed by policies such as building a first-class investment bank, and the valuation of the sector has sufficient room for repair.
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