The main contradiction in the capital market is switching. At the beginning of the year, we proposed that "interest rate decline" may be the common divisor at home and abroad in 2024, but the interest rate decline may have reached an extreme position in China, and it will also encounter dual resistance from the economy and inflation overseas. It is difficult for the downward interest rate to become the driving force of the subsequent capital market. Capital markets seem to be looking for new excitement and new stories.
China focuses on capital market reform. The government emphasizes "promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down" to promote economic stability and improvement, and emphasizes "stabilizing expectations" to further implement the system building and implementation mechanism to promote the development of the private economy. Since the first quarter, the domestic stock market has first declined and then risen, risk appetite has gradually rebounded, and the aggressiveness of institutional funds has gradually increased. The construction of the domestic capital market pays more attention to "investor-oriented", and considering the valuation position, the domestic stock market may fluctuate upward in the coming period. The capital market has been dulled by the downward trend of economic fundamentals and gradually adjusted it to be treated as a risk factor.
The international focus is on the trend of the AI industry. Since the beginning of this year, overseas stock markets have continued to rise, U.S. bonds have fallen, gold has hit a new high, and Bitcoin has reached a new high. The impact of geopolitical games on asset prices is becoming increasingly apparent. Overseas deflation has encountered new headwinds, the manufacturing PMI has returned to prosperity, the real estate sector has remained high, and the Fed's policy is uncertain. Overseas stock markets, gold, and bitcoin seem to have blunted the interest rate of U.S. bonds, focusing on the transformation of the AI industry and geopolitical games in the context of economic resilience.
In terms of exchange rate, the renminbi is expected to appreciate slightly throughout the year, and is expected to fluctuate around 7.2.
Overall, in 2024, the global economy is expected to moderate beyond expectations, but monetary policy adjustments may be less than expected.
Allocation suggestions: refer to the wealth pyramid to do a good job of wealth planning, pay attention to cornerstone allocation, and grasp dynamic opportunities
(1) Wealth planning: Reasonable planning of family assets according to family needs and bottom-line thinking is the first step of wealth management
(2) Cornerstone allocation: Construct a stable and resilient strategic portfolio through multiple sources of low correlation income, as the ballast stone for household financial asset allocation
☑ Cornerstone configuration: the idea of domestic alpha selection and global beta selection
☑ Domestic alpha may be in:
- The alpha of quantitative stock selection corresponds to the quantitative index increase and neutral strategy
- The alpha of the basis corresponds to the dividend-paying structured strategy and snowball strategy
- A low-volatility bond base corresponds to a high-quality domestic bond base
- For structural opportunities in the stock market, it is recommended to focus on the long-term allocation value of the dividend index
☑ Global beta is possible in:
- The U.S. stock market and the Indian stock market of the long bull
- Physical interest-bearing assets
- The trend of the AI industry corresponds to U.S. technology stocks
- U.S. Treasury and gold in the Fed's interest rate cut cycle
(3) Dynamic allocation: dynamically capture tactical opportunities and transactional opportunities in the capital market
◼ Tactical Opportunities for 2024 Follow-up:
☑ Clue 1: Domestic boost to the confidence of the capital market, corresponding to the domestic stock market opportunities
- Dividend-paying structured strategy and snowball strategy, after the snowball is knocked in, the winning rate of investment snowball has increased significantly
- A quality long equity manager
☑ Clue 2: The rebound of the global manufacturing cycle and the intensification of the game between major powers will lead to the rise in the prices of resources and commodities
- CTA strategy to capture the opportunity of a moderate cyclical recovery in commodities
- Non-ferrous metal stock funds benefited from a moderate rebound in the prices of non-ferrous metals and resource products
- Stock markets such as India, Japan, and Vietnam have benefited from the rebound in the global manufacturing cycle
☑ Clue 3: The interest rate of U.S. bonds is high and long, which corresponds to the opportunity to lock in short-term bonds and long-term bonds
◼ Tail risks: U.S. inflation rebounds sharply, and geopolitical games intensify
For more information on Harvest Wealth products, please call your financial advisor or call 400-021-8850
Important Notice:
The information or views expressed herein do not constitute investment advice to any person and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of the recipient and should not be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. The data and information contained herein are derived from publicly available market information or other sources that the Company believes to be reliable, but the Company makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness. The content of the third-party reports, materials, information, etc. reproduced in this article only represents the views of the third party and does not represent the position of the Company. There can be no assurance that the views or statements contained herein will not change and the Company may issue reports at different times that are inconsistent with the information, opinions and projections contained herein. The expected interest rate is a macro level of the approximate return range of the asset, not the expected rate of return, and does not represent whether any specific product is profitable and the level of income. Investment is risky. The Company does not guarantee that investors will make a profit, nor does it guarantee that the minimum return or principal will not be lost. Investors should fully consider their risk tolerance and risk identification ability, and invest prudently.