Recently, the "China Automotive New Supply Chain Configuration Data Product Conference" hosted by Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute was successfully held in Shanghai.
Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute is committed to becoming a leader in the automotive industry think tank, focusing on the in-depth insight of the whole industrial chain of intelligent vehicles by taking the automotive supply chain configuration information and vehicle production and sales information as the core underlying data resources, and outputting perfect automotive industry research results and complete industrial data resources, so as to support industry users to make business decisions.
At the launch of China's new automotive supply chain configuration data products, Gasgoo launched three sets of original database products and supporting market analysis monthly reports for the market: passenger car intelligent driving configuration database, passenger car intelligent cockpit configuration database, and passenger car electrification configuration database.
In recent years, the vigorous development of intelligent electric vehicles has promoted the emerging technology clusters represented by autonomous driving, intelligent cockpit and three-electric technology, and has begun to gradually replace the traditional "three major parts", which has become the key to shaping the core competitiveness of car companies and improving product strength. In particular, the intelligent cockpit, thanks to the deep collaboration with advanced on-board display, on-board acoustics, human-computer interaction and cockpit application ecology, is opening a new round of growth cycle, and the overall market size is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the next few years.
Intelligent cockpit accelerates penetration
As a complex integrated system, there is no unified definition of intelligent cockpit in the industry. Here, the definition of intelligent cockpit by Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute refers to the cockpit system equipped with more than 8-inch central control screen, voice interaction, Internet of Vehicles and OTA functions at the same time.
Among them, the central control screen and voice interaction are mainly to provide users with an excellent human-computer interaction experience, and improve the convenience of control and interaction efficiency. The Internet of Vehicles and OTA can greatly broaden the functional boundaries and application scenarios of the whole vehicle to better meet the diversified demands of end users.
After all, for many people, smart electric vehicles are no longer a simple means of transportation, but also bear the multiple demands of users for leisure and entertainment, social and emotional interaction, as if people live and work in addition to the "third living space".
According to relevant analysis data, nearly 9 percent of domestic users will consider the configuration of the intelligent cockpit when buying a car, and more than 6 percent of users are willing to pay for the functions in the cockpit. In terms of specific subdivided functions, end users have a relatively high preference for functions such as car machine chips, voice recognition, Internet of Vehicles, OTA, remote start, high-precision maps and mobile phone mapping, all of which exceed 60%.
Image source: Gasgoo
However, richer intelligent cockpit functions also mean more complex software and hardware system integration, as well as higher mass production costs.
From the perspective of the terminal market, the overall market configuration rate of the intelligent cockpit is currently more than 300,000 yuan. Among them, in the market of 30-500,000 yuan, the penetration rate of smart cockpits will be as high as 70% in 2023, and the market of more than 500,000 yuan will exceed 80%. But this is not difficult to understand, after all, the higher the price of the vehicle, the more inclusive the cost of the intelligent cockpit system.
In the market below 300,000 yuan, the penetration rate of intelligent cockpits in the range of 10-200,000 yuan is high, about 60%, and the market penetration rate below 100,000 yuan is the lowest, less than 40%.
However, if we look at the incremental part, the loading rate of intelligent cockpits last year increased significantly in the market below 300,000 yuan. In particular, in the 10-200,000 yuan market, the penetration rate of smart cockpits will reach 60.1% in 2023, which is even higher than the 20-300,000 yuan market, an increase of nearly 13 percentage points compared with 2022.
This means that following the popularization of the mid-to-high-end market, the intelligent cockpit is now showing an obvious downward trend in configuration, and the configuration rate in the mid-to-low-end market has increased significantly.
According to the configuration data of Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, the overall penetration rate of intelligent cockpits in China is close to 60%. Next, as the entire industry chain further matures and the driving cost continues to fall, it is expected that the installation rate of intelligent cockpits will continue to increase, and the overall penetration rate is expected to exceed 70% this year.
The rise of local supply chains is timely
As an important carrier of automotive intelligence, the evolution and innovation of intelligent cockpit are deeply dependent on the deep integration and efficient collaboration of core technologies such as on-board display, on-board acoustics, advanced human-computer interaction, and high-performance chips.
Because of this, the rapid development of intelligent cockpits in the past few years has not only brought about a revolutionary leap in the driving experience of end users, but also strongly driven the maturity and prosperity of the related core industrial chain, especially the strong rise of the independent supply chain.
Image source: Gasgoo
Taking the on-board display as an example, due to the continuous improvement of the functional complexity of the whole vehicle and the continuous upgrading of the end user's demand for the digitization and personalization of the in-vehicle space, the cockpit display, as the core carrier of in-vehicle information display and the key human-computer interaction interface, has shown an obvious trend of "large screen" and "multi-screen" in recent years.
According to the configuration data of Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, the penetration rate of the central control screen and LCD instrument in the new car market will reach 92.6% and 67.6% respectively in 2023, which will increase by different degrees compared with 2022.
Among them, the configuration rate of the 12-16-inch central control screen in the cockpit last year was as high as 42.1%, an increase of more than 10 percentage points compared with 2022;Although the 8-12-inch central control screen carrying rate has decreased, it still reached42.2%;In addition, the larger size of the 28-inch or even 40+-inch central control screen has also begun to be installed in new cars,For example, the Galaxy E8 is equipped with a 45-inch large central control screen。 In contrast, the loading rate of the central control screen below 8 inches has declined significantly, only 14.4% last year, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 10 percentage points.
The LCD instrument has also increased significantly with the configuration rate of more than 10 inches, accounting for 53.9% in 2023, especially the 10-12 inch LCD instrument, with a penetration rate of 28% in 2023, an increase of 6 percentage points compared with 2022. The number of vehicles under 10 inches has declined to 46.1%.
Image source: Gasgoo
From the perspective of core suppliers, the central control screen is relatively well accounted for by Desay SV and BYD, with an installed capacity of 4.279 million sets and 2.488 million sets in 2023, respectively, and the corresponding market share of 21.8% and 12.7% respectively, while LCD instruments are relatively good in Continental Group, BYD, and Desay SV, with an installed capacity of 2.337 million sets, 2.182 million sets and 1.976 million sets in 2023, with a total CR3 market share of 34.9%. In addition, cross-border players such as BOE and TCL have also begun to provide related support.
In addition to the trend of large screens, on the basis of the traditional central control and instrument "dual screens", in recent years, innovative display technologies such as HUD, passenger screen, rear seat entertainment screen, streaming media rearview mirror, transparent A-pillar and other innovative display technologies have also begun to be installed in more and more new cars, promoting the evolution of intelligent cockpits in the direction of multi-screen.
Image source: Gasgoo
For example, the penetration rate of HUD has reached 10.4% in 2023, and W-HUD is still the mainstream configuration scheme, accounting for nearly 9% in 2023. However, the newer generation of AR-HUD has also begun to be put on a large scale with the continuous decline in cost, and the configuration rate has increased from 5.4% in Q1 2023 to 15.3% in Q4.
From the perspective of the HUD market structure, Denso, Huayang Multimedia, Zejing Electronics, Future Black Technology, and Fodi Seiko are the main supporting suppliers, with an installed capacity of 361,000 sets, 353,000 sets, 255,000 sets, 233,000 sets, and 202,000 sets in 2023, with corresponding market shares of 16.4%, 16%, 11.6%, 10.6% and 9.2% respectively, and the top five suppliers together account for 63.8% of the market share.
Image source: Gasgoo
As the most direct communication channel between people and vehicles, voice interaction has also shown a steady growth trend thanks to the rapid development of AI technology, with a penetration rate of 78.8% in 2023, an increase of 5 percentage points compared with 2022. Among them, voice interaction-related functions such as wake-up free, continuous recognition, partitioned wake-up, visible and speakable, and voiceprint recognition will have a significant increase in the installation rate in 2023.
In terms of installed capacity, iFLYTEK accounts for almost half of the country, with 7.706 million voice interaction system shipments in 2023, corresponding to a market share of 46.4%. In 2023, the installed capacity will be 2.861 million units and 1.803 million units, respectively, with a corresponding market share of 17.2% and 10.8%, respectively, and the CR3 market will account for more than 70% of the total.
For intelligent electric vehicles, in addition to diversified cockpit display and intelligent voice interaction, OTA, which gives the vehicle the ability to continue to evolve, has also become the standard configuration of more and more new cars. For example, Tesla and Haval brands have all been equipped with OTA as standard, and BYD is also close to achieving OTA standard, with a penetration rate of 99.7% in 2023.
Image source: Gasgoo
From the perspective of OTA core suppliers, BYD had the highest installed capacity last year, reaching 2.388 million units, corresponding to a market share of 17.9%. Among the third-party suppliers, Alabi performed the best, with a cumulative installed capacity of 1.591 million units last year, with a market share of 11.9%, followed by Harman, with an installed capacity of 1.27 million units in 2023, corresponding to a market share of 9.5%.
In addition, thanks to the rapid development of intelligent driving, it is expected that intelligent electric vehicles will be in the stage of human-machine co-driving for a long time in the future, which drives DMS as a core configuration and has begun to be widely popularized. For example, brands such as Li Auto, Zeekr, and Wenjie will have a DMS penetration rate of more than 95% in 2023. However, DMS is currently mainly used for driver monitoring, and it is expected to be integrated with more ADAS functions in the future to provide full-scenario service applications for drivers and passengers.
On the whole, in the process of this round of intelligent cockpit upgrading, local manufacturers, as important drivers of change, not only strongly promote the innovation and iteration of cockpit technology, but also effectively stimulate the transformation process of independent new supply chain from scratch and from weak to strong, laying a solid foundation for China's automobile industry to seize the commanding heights of global competition in the intelligent era.
The next race point: hand-car fusion and large-scale model on board
According to the grading standards in the "White Paper on Classification and Comprehensive Evaluation of Automotive Intelligent Cockpit" previously released by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, the intelligent cockpit as a whole is already in the L2 part of the cognitive stage at this stage, that is, it has the ability to actively perceive drivers and passengers in some scenes in the cabin, and can actively perform some tasks, including cross-part interior and exterior scene applications.
Image source: Gasgoo
On this basis, how will the intelligent cockpit be iteratively upgraded in the next step?
At present, cross-scene integration based on hand-car interconnection, AI large model onboarding, and the integration and unification of multiple operating systems are becoming a new wrestling point on the track.
For example, in terms of cross-scenario interconnection, the new generation of operating systems represented by Huawei Hongmeng and Meizu Flyme Auto, with strong system compatibility and expansion capabilities, has successfully introduced and optimized a large number of mobile applications to the in-vehicle environment, including the intelligent upgrade of traditional in-vehicle functions, such as navigation, entertainment, communication, etc., and even gave birth to many innovative services, such as remote control, car-home interconnection, personalized recommendation, etc., greatly enriching the cockpit application matrix.
In fact, the cross-scene interconnection between cars and mobile phones is not a new application, but in the early days, the cross-terminal interconnection between the two was mainly achieved with the help of mobile phone mapping systems such as Apple Carplay and Baidu CarLife, which not only had a single function, but also could only control the mobile phone in one direction through the central control screen.
Image source: Gasgoo
The current new generation of hand-car interconnection solution, in addition to being compatible with more ecological applications, can also realize two-way control of mobile phones and car machines, and support cross-terminal computing power. For example, Huawei HiCar, which supports functions such as hardware invocation and computing power sharing of the car machine and mobile phone, and Meizu Flyme Link and Xiaomi CarWith, both of which support the sharing of computing power between the mobile phone and the car machine, as well as two-way control between the mobile phone and the car machine.
According to the configuration data of Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, the penetration rate of mobile phone interconnection mapping function in the new car market in 2023 will be about 56.4%, of which Baidu CarLife and Apple Carplay are still the mainstream solutions, with penetration rates of 33.4% and 30.7% respectively last year, while the installation rate of Huawei HiCar is also continuing to increase, with the configuration rate reaching 8.5% last year, an increase of 3 percentage points compared with 2022.
In addition, with the increasing degree of automobile networking, remote control of cars through mobile phone APP has also begun to become the mainstream, and the penetration rate of APP remote control function exceeded 60% last year, of which the penetration rate of vehicle monitoring, remote control, service appointment and other functions exceeded 50%.
In terms of brands, overseas luxury brands have a high dependence on the mobile phone mapping function as a whole, while independent brands have less dependence on the mapping function due to the relatively complete ecology of the vehicle system, but have a relatively high dependence on the remote control function of the mobile phone APP, with an overall penetration rate of more than 75% last year.
According to the current trend, in the future, in addition to serving as the entrance to data collection, mobile phones can also realize cross-terminal interconnection based on operating systems with cars, as well as share computing power and sensors, so as to achieve more interactive applications, create a real "people-vehicle-life" ecological closed loop, and realize seamless connection of multiple scenarios.
There is also a large model on the car, which is also the focus of the next stage of competition in the intelligent cockpit.
In the past few years, although significant breakthroughs have been made in the process of cockpit intelligence, especially in voice interaction, through the deep integration with AI technology, many in-vehicle voice assistants have shown initial anthropomorphic characteristics. It is undeniable that the underlying layer of the current in-vehicle voice system is still not a fully mature task-based dialogue system, and it is impossible to truly realize personalized and emotional interaction.
Image credit: Mercedes-Benz
In 2023, the explosion of large models has made the industry see the new upgrade direction of the intelligent cockpit, and they have carried out layouts. For example, the Jiyue 01 jointly created by Baidu and Geely has realized Baidu's "Wenxin Yiyan" voice model on the car, raising the human-computer interaction experience of Jiyue 01 to a new height. iFLYTEK's Xinghuo cognitive model has also been equipped with Chery Star Era ES for the first time, aiming to create a more emotional and ultimate intelligent cockpit experience. In addition, ideal, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Geely, BYD, Mercedes-Benz and other car companies are also competing to promote large models on the car. According to the current trend, this year is expected to be the first year for the batch launch of large cockpit models.
It is worth noting that in addition to helping to achieve a more personalized and intelligent driving experience, the car can truly have logical ability, decision-making ability and generation ability, realize the evolution from functional cars to smart cars, and is also expected to promote the transformation of the intelligent cockpit business model through personalized owner services.
Looking forward to the future, the development of smart electric vehicles is in the ascendant, and the transformation of intelligent cockpit is far from the end.