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【Reading guide】4 months gradually drifted away,In terms of domestic gasoline and diesel and livestock and poultry breeding,Recently,The rise in oil prices has become a hot topic of discussion,Although,The market is looking forward to falling sentiment,But,A new round of oil price adjustment,Gasoline and diesel prices may rise or will be the general trend。 In terms of livestock and poultry breeding, the trend of pig prices has weakened, the market has shown a trend of high decline, in the egg market, the production and marketing game has intensified, the market has stabilized and the price has stabilized at a low level!
So, what's happening in the market? Today is April 9th, and the specific analysis is as follows:
First, oil prices have risen "4 times in a row", and gasoline prices have risen sharply!
According to the agency, the 8th oil price adjustment cycle in 2024 will be from April 2 to April 16, in this round of pricing cycle for 10 working days, in the first 4 working days of the end, oil prices "4 consecutive rises", the rate of change of crude oil continues to rise, as of the previous 4 working days, the rate of change of crude oil is 4.11%, the price of gasoline and diesel rose by 195 yuan / ton, equivalent to 92 gasoline rose by 0.15 ~ 0.18 yuan, gasoline prices rose!
At present, the support for the rise in oil prices, mainly by the crude oil market last week showed a sharp rebound trend, agency statistics show that last week's U.S. oil rose by more than 4.8%, cloth oil rose by 4.5% in a single week, and international oil prices hit a new high, which also caused the domestic crude oil change rate to continue to rise!
However, judging from market feedback, international oil prices have risen and fallen, at 20:41 on April 8, U.S. oil fell by $0.56 to $86.35, and cloth oil fell by $0.65 to $90.52! Affected by the overnight crude oil or the expectation of a decline, on April 9, the fifth working day of the current round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil may be loosened expectations, however, due to the large increase in oil prices, the oil price adjustment, the fifth gasoline and diesel price increase in the year basically entered the countdown!
Second, the price of pigs fell back!
Judging from the market feedback, the domestic pig market, the pig price ended the trend of continuous rise, the price appeared to rise and fall, the pig price "from the rise into the fall", which is in line with the previous author's estimate, after all, the good out, the bad strike, the pig price fell is a certainty!
At present, the factors supporting the decline in pig prices are roughly as follows:
First, this month's pig supply pattern is relatively loose, in particular, at the end of February and March, the pace of retail and group pig enterprises slowed down, and the phenomenon of weight gain at the end of the breeding fence increased. In particular, as the weather warms, the price of domestic standard fat pigs gradually loosens, the demand for fat pigs gradually weakens, and the market is cautious about weight gain in the bar, and some farmers are worried about the risk of "slaughtering cattle" in the future, and the phenomenon of selling pigs at high prices in a timely manner increases. Retail investors and group pig enterprises have a certain degree of enthusiasm for slaughter;
Second, there are more empty bars at the breeding end, but the mentality of resisting high prices to supplement the column has become stronger, after all, the risk of secondary breeding in the stage is extremely high, and the cautious mentality of the market has become stronger, which has weakened the performance of slaughtering enterprises;
Third, the inertia of pork consumption has deteriorated, in particular, the lack of market demand after the holiday, the lack of support for household consumption, the substitution of consumption is more obvious, superimposed, catering and dine-in demand is poor, tourism demand is cooling, and the consumer market is under pressure!
Therefore, under the pressure of long and short, pig prices fell high and fell, the average price of domestic pigs fell to 7.6 yuan / catty, down 0.03 yuan / kg from yesterday, the north and south markets, the range of pig price decline has increased significantly, in the short term, the market is subject to emotional deviation, the price or will maintain a weak trend, pig prices or have fallen below 7.5 yuan / catty, however, due to the market resistance to price reduction mentality still exists, in the short term, pig prices or will hover around 7.5 yuan / catty showing a trend of adjustment of ups and downs!
3. Egg prices are low and sideways!
In the egg market, from the analysis of institutional data, at present, in terms of domestic production and marketing, the price of eggs in the production area is stable at 3.28 yuan / catty, the price of eggs in the sales area market is stable at 3.23 yuan / catty, the egg price is sideways and low, the price has decreased by nearly 3% year-on-year, and the market has shown a situation of stagnation!
At present, in terms of consumer demand, the follow-up of holiday demand is weakened, the wholesale market and traders are mainly based on on-demand procurement, the purchase and sale of eggs is cold, the support of household consumption is insufficient, and the substitution phenomenon is more common, and the replenishment demand of food enterprises is general, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, and the pace of egg purchase and sales is slow!
On the supply side, due to the small number of old chickens this month, the number of new laying hens increased slightly by about 1.04% month-on-month. However, the demand support is insufficient, which also causes the egg inventory level in all aspects of production and marketing to increase, and the supply pressure is strong and obvious!
However, due to the low price of eggs, the pressure of loss in the production area increases, there is a certain price mentality at the breeding end, in some areas, farmers have the sentiment of card price shipment, the market purchase and sale game is more prominent, I personally believe that the supply pressure is greater, the price will still be weak in the short term, however, because the egg price is at the bottom of the stage, food companies or have the operation of bargain storage, the price still has the opportunity to rise, but the range or will be limited!