Hello friends.
Today we are going to talk about the shuttle visits of several ministers around the world.
First, as you know, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China has entered the penultimate day, and a live press conference was held this afternoon.
What did Yellen say at the press conference, and what can we learn from this?
Second, at the same time as Yellen's visit to Beijing, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also arrived in Beijing this morning.
Of course, this is just a coincidence, and there is nothing to be said about in particular, but the presence of the US and Russian ministers in Beijing at the same time at least at the official level is very noteworthy.
It has already been revealed that Lavrov is visiting China at the invitation of the Chinese foreign minister. During the two-day visit, what will China and Russia talk about, and what results can be discussed in the future? We will make a detailed analysis for you.
It is worth noting that Lavrov's visit to China is to a considerable extent a preparation for President Putin's possible visit to China in May. If it happens, it will be Putin's first foreign trip since he was elected president of Russia with a high vote in March this year.
You must know that the situation between Russia and Ukraine has recently undergone some very subtle changes, and Lavrov's visit to China at this time is obviously prepared.
01
The U.S. side has previously said that Yellen will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Beijing time on April 8, which will be broadcast live. So, I waited in the live broadcast room on time, but the US side delayed the official start for a few minutes.
Based on my long-term experience of watching all kinds of live press conferences in the United States from a long distance, the general level is relatively high, and press conferences involving China-US issues are often missed or late. "Arriving late" means that the United States has something to discuss on relevant issues, or that it is rather difficult to discuss some issues.
Because the United States is disseminating information to the outside world, once the United States makes a mistake, it will be difficult to recover it, and they must carefully consider and consider it carefully.
Judging from external characteristics, the US side officially started the press conference after only a few minutes of delay, which shows that the US side did not make difficulties with Yellen's trip to China and came prepared, and it also shows that the final conclusion did not embarrass the US side.
At the press conference, Yellen first spoke a paragraph and then answered five questions.
First of all, we can know from her speech that Yellen believes that China and the United States have made key progress in three areas during this visit.
First, we have established exchanges with China on balanced growth. This confirms what I said before, Yellen came prepared this time, and she is attacking China's idea of three major industries with new quality productivity as the main orientation, that is, China's "overcapacity".
But the Chinese side also gave her a very soft nail, saying that this issue could be put into the economic and financial working group meeting set up after Yellen's visit to China last year to discuss the mechanism internally.
Since we want to discuss the balanced development of the economy, and the United States believes that China is the so-called overproduction, then the Chinese side naturally also wants to talk about the high tariffs that the United States has imposed on China for six years. To balance everyone, this is the balanced development. In this regard, Yellen believes that progress has been made.
In addition, Yellen also said that after the end of the visit, the China-US Economic and Financial Working Group will hold its fourth meeting to discuss the topic of balanced development and balanced growth
Second, Yellen said that China and the United States have made progress in combating international illicit financial activities.
To put it bluntly, China agreed to cooperate with the US to jointly crack down on illegal international financial activities, including international money laundering, to give Yellen a little face, and second, to give her a little bit of confidence.
After all, China-US relations have just begun to recover, and the future will continue, and it is not only in China's interest but also in the United States' interest to jointly combat international financial crime.
It is worth noting that, judging by the facial expressions, Yellen is clearly happier and more excited when mentioning the second area than the first.
Third, Yellen said that China and the United States have also made breakthroughs in financial technology exchanges, and some large banks have reached some agreements on financial technology exchanges.
Judging from the progress made in the above three areas, the Americans are quite satisfied with the overall atmosphere of Yellen's visit to China, and they feel good.
Of course, they also know very well that in the first area, the United States has actually hit a nail, but this nail is very soft.
From a commentator's point of view, I think Yellen's visit to China is very not simple, and the old lady is obviously commissioned by the Biden administration.
This is not only because Yellen herself is a member of Biden's cabinet, but also because she answered questions from the New York Times later.
Yellen made it clear that it is not only the United States that is concerned about China's overproduction, but the entire Western world, including Europe.
That's why I stress that Yellen's visit to China is not simple, and we must not take it lightly. Although China has given Yellen six "very" soft nails, the nature behind this matter is serious.
At present, we are not sure whether the United States took the initiative or happened to it, but in terms of the operating structure at the bottom of the logic, this so-called "overproduction" is actually a direct collision with China's new quality productivity strategy, which is similar to their suppression of "Made in China 2025" nearly a decade ago.
Among the five questions mentioned earlier, the first question was asked by a New York reporter, the United States accused China of "overcapacity", and China accused the United States of a series of politicization on trade and economic issues, so what is the next step?
Yellen said this is a concern not only for the United States alone, but for the Western world as a whole. This answer is exactly what I reasoned yesterday.
Yellen was also asked another question: Will the United States impose "export controls" on China if the next step is not to solve this problem?
But just like Yellen's answer to a question about TikTok, she just repeated some official U.S. policies, and did not explicitly respond to whether to strengthen export controls, she only said that if not, she would ask some countries such as the Philippines to reduce their over-reliance on China.
I don't know if Yellen's mention of the Philippines was intentional or if she inadvertently mentioned a country, but I think the former is more likely.
It also happens that this week will be more sensitive, as the U.S.-Japan summit will meet in Washington on April 10 to give the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty its first major upgrade since the 1960s.
On April 11, the United States, Japan and the Philippines will hold a summit. In other words, the United States wants to tie its most trusted allies in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and the Philippines, to its chariot.
It is worth mentioning that on April 7, the United States, Japan, the Philippines and Australia, these four countries held joint military exercises in the South China Sea, pointing their swords at China.
Biden also made a speech in which he "warned" China not to intervene in the South China Sea and the United States to defend the interests of the Philippines.
Although these few things belong to the military, and Yellen claims that she is dealing with economic issues, according to the term "economic warfare" proposed by the Western media, Yellen is clearly here to fight "economic warfare".
Now China has given her such a soft nail, even if Yellen is a dove, but after she goes back to the White House, she will have further measures with many hawks and factions that intersect with eagles and doves, so Yellen's answer is very informative.
In addition, Yellen also proposed a definition, that is, "the first shock from China", she said that in fact, as early as the beginning of this century, when China joined the WTO, this kind of shock has begun, but this time it is more intensified.
It can be seen that Yellen is comparing the impact of China on the West in the two eras.
Although we all know the general background of the two eras, and the Sino-US relationship under the era is completely different, Yellen has mentioned the "first shock from China" several times, and I believe that friends who do strategic research or relevant departments can study the motivation behind it.
Fourth, on the issue of the business environment for U.S. companies in China, Yellen said very well that she did not want to overemphasize this aspect, which was considered to be bypassing the issue. This reflects the so-called dovishness of the old lady.
The last question was asked by a Chinese journalist, who first introduced himself, saying that he studied economics at Columbia University and agreed with Yellen's views, and then he began to discuss some economic issues.
In her words, you could feel that the reporter was trying to speak for China, saying that Yellen might have a misunderstanding of China, but Yellen smiled and patiently discussed some economic issues, of course, her final so-called conclusion was still in favor of the American side's point of view.
The above is the general situation of the press conference, and two points of information can be found:
First, our observations and inferences along the way are not only correct, but also completely confirmed, and second, Yellen's visit has probably come to an end so far, and she will leave for the United States tomorrow morning.
It can be said that both China and the United States have created a good overall atmosphere, and the United States has taken over this soft nail, but it does not want to break the soft nail, and the key is to wait until Yellen returns to Washington to conduct internal discussions.
But personally, I would like to point out to you that the nature of the matter is actually very serious, and it is directly aimed at China's new qualitative productive forces at the logical and operational level.
In the coming period, Sino-US relations will not necessarily be bright, and a more intense and subtle game and fight may begin.
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Finally, we would like to talk about Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's arrival in Beijing this morning at the invitation of the Chinese counterpart.
In view of the other backgrounds that have already been mentioned, I will not repeat them here, except for the linkage between China and Russia in the United Nations, BRICS and the G20 Leaders' Summit, the most important thing is to talk about the Russia-Ukraine war.
On April 4, Lavrov made it clear that the 12-point solution to the Ukrainian problem proposed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry in February last year was very rational.
More than a year has passed since this plan, why did Lavrov mention it at this time?
I think China and Russia should strengthen communication in this regard, and as for the outcome of the communication, anyway, the two-day visit is very short, so let's wait and see. In addition, Lavrov may be preparing for a possible visit to China by Putin in May.
Now, after more than two years of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a very subtle change is emerging, reflecting that Ukraine is not so strong, Russia is not so weak, and so far, Ukraine has not won, and Russia has not lost.
Today there is an article in the German Handelsblatt that also unequivocally admits that European sanctions against Russia did not work and did not win the war in Ukraine.
More than two years ago, when Europe began to sanction Russia, people thought that Russia's economy would collapse after more than two years, but it turned out that this is not the case, and now Russia's economy is still rising.
The correspondent of the German Handelsblatt came to Moscow and found that the number of Western cars on the streets of Russia, as well as the number of stores of Western luxury goods in Russia, is still increasing.
What the hell is going on here?
Some say that Russia's economic growth is due to the fact that China and India buy his oil, but this is only one aspect.
The Handelsblatt article points out another aspect: Western car exports to Kyrgyzstan are rising more than people think, and these cars may enter Russia.
In other words, the West is also indirectly helping Russia's economy.
In connection with Yellen's cliché at a press conference this afternoon, asking Chinese companies not to provide support to Russia, otherwise the problem will be serious.
But is Europe aware of the situation reported by Handelsblatt that a large number of German cars are destined for Kyrgyzstan and then to Russia as soon as they change hands, does that mean that the German auto industry is also financing Russia's economic development?
So far, the Russian-Ukrainian war has been fought for nearly 26 months, and it is still the same sentence, Russia has not lost big, and neither the West nor Ukraine has won big. In this context, Lavrov's arrival in Beijing today, and Putin's possible visit to Beijing next month, are all the more concerning.
Of course, what is more interesting is our article, I hope you can share it with friends around you, there are not only news and opinions, but also our deconstruction of the underlying logic, neutral and professional refinement and forward-looking objective laws.