"Today's gold price is 693 yuan/g. "Today's gold price is 709 yuan/g. "Today's gold price is 718 yuan/g, it has risen and risen!" In Xiaoyu's (pseudonym) circle of friends, the gold store salesman who had been added before seemed to be the daily broadcaster of the gold price of pure gold jewelry, and he kept swiping the screen with a rising price every day.
After a wild surge in March, the domestic gold price in April is still singing all the way, setting a new record again after the Qingming Festival. However, while "cashing in large gold hoarders" is on Weibo's hot search, many people who hold gold are also hesitating: to sell, or not to sell?
01
The price of gold hit an all-time high
Institutions are bullish to $3,000 an ounce
On 5 April, the US released non-farm payrolls data for March. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was 303,000, higher than the expected 212,000 and higher than the previous value of 270,000, and the unemployment rate in March was 3.8%, lower than the expected 3.9% and lower than the previous value of 3.9%.
Although the higher-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data made the need for interest rate cuts less necessary, this did not put the "brakes" on the upward gold price.
On April 5, local time, the international gold price refreshed a record high, with London spot gold rising 1.77% to $2,329.57 per ounce and COMEX gold up 1.76% to $2,349.1 per ounce. On April 8, the domestic AU9999 gold price exceeded 550 yuan/g, and the gold price of pure gold jewelry also approached 730 yuan/g.
On April 6, Citi said it had raised its 0-3 month price targets for gold and silver by 9% and 16%, respectively, to $2,400 and $28 per ounce, respectively. In addition, the agency raised the upper limit of the price target for a 6-12-month bullish scenario for gold and silver, reaching $3,000 and $32 per ounce, respectively.
Data map: The formed gold bars are cooled in water.
So, where does the driving force for the gold boom come from?
Guojin Securities pointed out in the latest research report that since 2023, the frequent downward revision of the U.S. non-farm data and the impact of part-time jobs on the data have reduced the market's trust in the non-farm data. In addition, U.S. inflation continues to be sticky, and gold's short-term pricing balance is tilted towards the inflation side. The return of allocation funds may become another driving force for the rise in gold prices.
At the same time, long-term concerns about the credit of the US dollar remain, and central bank gold purchases support long-term gold prices. According to the World Gold Council, global official gold reserves increased by 39t in January 2024, with Turkey and China once again becoming the world's two largest official buyers of gold. China's gold reserves were 72.74 million ounces at the end of March and 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, the 17th consecutive month of increased gold reserves, central bank data showed.
Industrial Securities believes that the gold boom is essentially driven by the "illusion" of a global recession and a large monetary release. As the Ukraine crisis continues in 2024, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, coupled with the global "election year", geopolitical uncertainty has risen significantly, and risk aversion has also contributed to the rise in gold prices.
In the face of the strong rise in gold in the first quarter, Xu Ying, chief analyst of Orient Futures macro strategy, believes that short-term pricing is sufficient, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of correction caused by profit-taking of speculative funds. In the medium and long term, gold has really broken through the shock range of the past three years, and a new rising cycle has come, which will strengthen the market's bullish expectations and attract new capital inflows, so it is expected that gold prices will still show a volatile upward trend and a pivotal upward trend.
It is worth mentioning that gold-related funds have recently become the target of capital speculation, which has also attracted the attention of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. According to Shanghai Securities News and other media reports, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has urgently issued a reminder to focus on monitoring the fund and strictly supervise investors who frequently participate in a large number of fund transactions and have abnormal trading behaviors.
02
People who sell gold:
50g gold bars net 4,000 yuan
With the rise in gold prices, the recycling price of gold has also risen, and many brand gold stores and individual stores have recycled prices of around 530-540 yuan/g, and some stores have even hit high prices ranging from 550 yuan to 560 yuan/g to attract consumers to cash in gold.
"I bought investment gold bars in May last year, and at that time I thought that the timing of buying gold was not very good, and I encountered a slight decline in the later period, but I didn't expect it to rise all the way this year. Xiaoyu told Zhongxin Finance that less than a year after buying, her 50g gold bars have made a net profit of 4,000 yuan.
"Now that the price of gold has risen sharply, many people on the Internet have begun to speculate on gold as a stock, and they are a little panicked and have made some moves. Another consumer said that the gold he had previously purchased in an online store of a brand had been successfully recycled in an offline store. "When I called, it was 528 yuan/g, and when I arrived at the store, it was 532.5 yuan/g. ”
In February 2024, members of the public were shopping for gold ornaments in shopping malls. Photo by China News Service reporter Yu Jing
However, with the high price of gold, some people choose to wait and see. Zhongxin Finance noticed that many of those who still hold gold and do not sell are buyers of gold jewelry.
Ms. Qi told China News Finance that when the gold recycling price was still around 470 yuan, she had asked a gold store to sell a gold necklace and a pair of gold earrings, but it was because the jewelry was damaged to a certain extent. "I bought these five years ago, when the price of gold was only 358 yuan/g, and it was considered profitable to sell them. I'm not going to sell it now, because there is still a need to wear it. ”
In addition, there are also people who do not stand still because of the preservation of the value of gold. "Buying gold bars is originally important to the hard currency attribute, and the price of gold will only rise in the short term, not fall, and it is always wrong to hold it in your hand. Lu Lu (pseudonym), who has successively purchased 2,100g of gold, told China News Finance.
Industrial Securities said that from the more essential logic of gold pricing, the AI revolution is in the ascendant, the probability of recession in Europe and the United States is reduced, global inflation is only sticky but cannot make a comeback, and the Fed's monetary easing space is limited under the soft landing, which is negative for gold valuation.
03
Gold recycling is hot
But these issues need to be noted
For those who want to monetize their gold, how to safely realize the safety of the bag is also a kung fu.
At present, some brand gold stores, banks, pawn shops, and individual recycling merchants can recycle gold, but the recycling rules and processes of different channels and brands are different, and some consumers still need to be vigilant when "comparing prices with three".
For example, some recycling merchants will use the banner of "high-price recycling" to attract consumers, but in fact, they will greatly discount the actual recycling price on the grounds of insufficient gram weight and low purity, and even "steal gold" by dissolving gold with "aqua regia".
Zhongxin Finance visited a number of regular gold stores, and the clerks all said that the brand and bills are not required in gold recycling, and if it is gold in good condition, the weight deviation is generally not large. "The general loss is about 0.01-0.03 grams, which is about 10 yuan lower than the market, and it is a normal recovery price. ”
An online gold recycling platform. Screenshot from WeChat Mini Program.
While offline gold recycling is booming, online gold recycling business has also attracted many gold holders. Zhongxin Finance noticed that at present, many platforms carry out online gold business, and some precious metal recyclers have also opened online recycling platforms such as official accounts, mini programs, and APPs.
"Online gold recycling also needs to pay attention to the recycling rules, some of the higher quotations actually need to charge a series of additional service fees, handling fees, and shipping fees, and some platforms will not inform these fees in advance. A consumer who has sold gold in an online mini-program told China News Finance that although online recycling is expensive, it is actually not as convenient as imagined. "I took a video of the whole process when I sent the express, and even if I insured the price when I sent it, I would worry about the problem with the express. ”
Source: China News Network