In response to the joint naval exercise held by the United States, the Philippines, Japan, and Australia in the South China Sea, China's Southern Theater organized naval and air forces to conduct joint combat patrols in the South China Sea on 7 July. In the face of our military's rapid response capability, the four countries, which originally wanted to win the voice of public opinion through this "show military exercise," never mentioned the so-called "China threat," but instead began to turn to "maintaining stable relations" with the mainland. According to a report published by Philippine media on the 8th, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos declared in an interview that "multinational joint military exercises will help reduce confrontation in the South China Sea" and "called on China to engage in dialogue to avoid continued tension in ship collisions and high-pressure water cannons."
At the same time, the United States, as the largest backer of the Philippines, has also begun to try to "eat soft rice and hard food". According to a report released by the British media "Financial Times" on the 8th, citing White House sources, the Biden administration is trying to avoid "drawing a red line" for China on the South China Sea issue. The Biden administration is informing China through a series of dialogues that the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty applies to Philippine ships and crews, so China must think carefully to avoid a possible serious confrontation, the sources said. On the one hand, joint military exercises are still being held, and on the other hand, we are "calling" our side to engage in dialogue.
On the one hand, it refuses to "draw a red line", and on the other hand, it "warns" us not to confront. Such a "tacit" statement is enough to prove that the United States and the Philippines have communicated and coordinated their statements in advance. But behind the pretentious posture of the United States and the Philippines, we must also see the difference between the two. First of all, the Philippines, Marcos's latest statement does have the ingredient of "softness", but the content of the ingredient is not much. The main purpose is to shape the "peaceful personality" of the Philippines, and forcibly refer to the threatening joint military exercises as "maintaining peace".
As for the so-called "call for dialogue", this trick of delaying and waiting for change has already been completely played by Marcos. Only "avoiding collisions and water cannons" is Marcos's true words. After all, the situation that the Philippines is looking forward to is that China is "bullying the small with the big" and "bullying" the Philippines with extremely asymmetrical force, in other words, "begging for a fight". However, the current situation is that because China has precisely controlled the situation in "coast guard versus coast guard and navy versus navy", the Philippines has not only been unable to win sympathy in front of the whole world, but also has not given the United States and the Philippines room to coerce neighboring countries.
Then there is the United States, where the Biden administration has tried to use the South China Sea as an entry point to focus the attention of the international community. But the problem is that after provoking the South China Sea dispute, the United States lacks the confidence to intervene in person. On the contrary, this state of not being able to go up or down has put the United States in an embarrassing state of dilemma. However, negotiations alone are not enough to make China retreat in the face of difficulties, and in the face of this situation of "losing both civil and military," the only recourse left for the United States is to speak ruthlessly and embolden. Taking a step back, even if the United States really dares to "draw a red line" on the South China Sea issue, the PLA has already given the answer in the "South China Sea Arbitration Turmoil" in 2016.
At the same time, however, we should also note that although the United States and the Philippines were unable to achieve their desired goals through this military exercise, this did not prevent them from continuing to hype up the South China Sea issue in the future. Especially when Biden and Marcos both need to use the "China threat theory" to realize their respective domestic political issues, similar hype will inevitably explode in the coming period.
Therefore, China must not only maintain its strategic focus and not fall into the rhythm of the other side, but also work with more ASEAN countries to resist this unhealthy trend that intends to disrupt peace in the South China Sea. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin made it clear last week that the root cause of the current escalation of China-Philippines maritime disputes lies in the fact that the Philippines relies on the support of external forces, violates its commitments and repeatedly provokes, and only when all parties abide by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea can the South China Sea truly return to peace.