Bottoming out in the morning and rebounding in the afternoon, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market took the lead in filling the gap, and the Shanghai Index partially filled the gap, leaving a gap of about 4 points, which added a suspense to the short-term market, and basically confirmed that it was a sure thing to fill the gap tomorrow, this gap did not make much sense, and the trend of the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market told investors that there is still room for downward movement in the short term, and the operation still cannot be rushed, and it still needs to wait.
Today, the weak pattern before the holiday continues, and the trend of individual stocks is more miserable. It's just that many people have been pitted by the high in the intraday, of course, you dare to fry low and not chase high, even if you are covered in the short term, it will not be much of a problem, just lose some time.
Today's money loss effect has further heated up, and it is worse than before the holiday, and the volume can be basically the same as the previous trading day. The fall limit is as high as 51, and there are more than 800 stocks that have fallen by more than 5%, for many people, it is really a big loss day, before the holiday, I repeatedly reminded everyone that the probability of filling the gap today is larger, and it really came true, but the loss effect of the market has increased greatly, which was not expected, and at the same time, it was expected that the theme of science and technology represented by AI would perform, and it also fell short.
The key lies in whether the prediction can be accurately operated, and the rapid dip in the morning is to make a T, and the perfect operation benefits from strict position control, so that it can be comfortable in the current market.
In the face of a huge loss effect, perhaps we blame the lack of foreign capital, the continuous net outflow of foreign capital, and at the same time for the continuous large smashing of domestic capital and feel helpless, the net outflow of foreign capital of 3 billion, compared with the net outflow of domestic capital of 31.5 billion is naturally not worth mentioning, but we have long been accustomed to the net outflow of domestic capital, so the short of domestic capital has long been commonplace, and for foreign capital is different, mainly the market blows foreign capital to the sky, foreign capital is firmly bullish and long, and so on and so on deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, so in the face of the continuous outflow of foreign capital, the huge contrast hits the power of following the footsteps of foreign capital, once the idol collapses, the blow to the market is naturally great。
What is the reason that foreign capital has no confidence, and the exchange rate has not depreciated today, so why should foreign capital continue to sell?
Back to today's market, there are several important changes worth our analysis, I hope it will be helpful for the analysis of the market:
1. The three major stock indexes are three consecutive yin, and the three crows on the technical form represent the bearish formation, can it be reversed tomorrow, and can the style be transformed?
This morning, non-ferrous resources stocks represented by gold rose sharply, and the main weekend market blew gold stocks into the sky, gold prices rose sharply, and many retail investors rushed to physical gold. Even Wall Street bigwigs have gone to trumpet that gold will stand above the $3,000 mark. The conductivity of the gold surge drove the non-ferrous metals and other resource stocks to rise, two barrels of oil rose sharply in the morning, driving the index to successfully turn red, and it is precisely because of the coal and oil rush up and down that the index fell, and the gold sector rose in the morning basically maintained a strong position throughout the day, while many non-ferrous stocks followed the trend rose and fell, on the whole, non-ferrous and other resource stocks fell, obviously the short-term increase was too large, and the gold surge was out of the requirement of hedging, which was driven by demand. The sharp rise in oil is stimulated by the sharp rise in international oil prices, and coal is also driven by demand, while many other resource sectors are basically a follow-up effect, and their rise needs to be driven by more economic data. Although the current expectation of economic recovery is also increasing, the continued sharp rise in the short term has largely overdrawn the rise in stock prices brought by demand growth.
When the market weakens, only the sectors with strong real rising logic can withstand the test, and it is normal for those varieties that follow the trend to fall first. Of course, for resource stocks, we must be based on a long-term vision, and the long-term rise is still on the way, after all, the economic recovery has just begun, but the short-term rise is a risk, and chasing the rise is a price.
As the main line of the near future, the leader has not fallen, and it is difficult to say that the resource stocks will fall immediately. It's just that the volume of gold stocks that are still rising sharply today can be sharply amplified, and the high volume means that the divergence is increasing, and the short-term risk is still very large. In fact, during the long holiday, the technology sector is a lot better, such as Apple is ready to cut into the household humanoid robot track, Musk announced the launch of driverless taxis on August 8, the European Union and the United States have joined forces to conduct AI research and so on.
From the perspective of rotation, once the weight falls again tomorrow, the index will definitely fill the gap downward, and it is likely that a low opening will make up for the gap. The focus of our attention is not that the index has a large downward space, mainly to focus on whether the style can be switched, if the weight of today's disk protection begins to lead the decline, today's big fall of the theme will be anti-customer-based, even if the index falls again, the market's money-making effect will heat up, this is the focus of our attention, once the theme leads the rise, it has a certain operability.
2. Just now, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced another major event, deciding that the proportion of IPO inspections this year will not be less than 25%.
25% inspection ratio, many investors seem to be not satisfied, why not 100% inspection, to ensure that every IPO is fine, how can there be a spot check that slips through the net.
But we need to know that last year, the inspection rate was 5%, which is 5 times higher than that.
In fact, according to the current regulatory environment, the declaration is responsible, and once there is a problem in the investigation, every participating entity will be implicated. This deterrent is very strong, in this way, enterprises do not dare to take risks, brokerages do not dare to package non-compliant enterprises to list, recently there are not a large number of brokerages to take the initiative to withdraw the IPO declaration, there are ghosts in the heart, scared.
This shows that as long as there is a strict punishment law, every link in the IPO industry chain will be strict with itself, from the past luck to now dare not cross the thunder pool half a step.
As long as there is a sound regulatory system, the number of companies queuing up to list will be greatly reduced, and the CSRC has the energy to inspect every IPO company.
Of course, such a large-scale spot check has enough deterrent effect for enterprises that break through with illness. Basically, it will put an end to non-compliant enterprises from passing through the customs in confusion, and truly control the entry gate from the source.
It is believed that with the improvement of various regulatory systems, the investment environment of the market will undergo fundamental changes.
To tell the truth, as long as the listing is strictly controlled, the companies that can be really listed are good companies, even if the listing speed is faster, it is a good thing for really good companies to enter this market, but unfortunately, there are very few companies that really meet the listing conditions.
This week's new share subscription was zero, and last week's was also zero, is the speed really slowing down?
3. After hours, the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased the margin ratio of silver deferred contracts
Increase the margin ratio, the reason is obvious, the market has been too hot recently, by increasing the margin ratio to curb the market speculation, the price of gold has risen sharply, transmitted to the silver market, and then will definitely be transmitted to other precious metals.
The signal released by the exchange is very obvious, to curb the overheating of the market and artificially cool down. Of course, when the market is hot, not many people care about this margin. However, we must understand the intent of the policy, and if we do not rein in and continue to speculate, the policy will be tightened more and more, and more severe cooling measures will be taken next.
Today, many non-ferrous stocks rushed up and down, and if they rush again tomorrow, they must learn to avoid their edges and know how to retreat. If the market opens directly and falls sharply tomorrow, I am afraid that it will be adjusted in the short term, which means a change in market style.
4. What is the probability of the market going tomorrow:
Although today's index is not a big fall, but the individual stocks fell very miserably, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market fell greatly, and the gap has been filled.
Mainly to observe whether the grid can be converted, if the weight begins to lead the decline, the theme will usher in opportunities. Mainly observe the trend of foreign investment, and from the perspective of speculation, it is believed that the probability of foreign capital returning tomorrow is relatively large.
Now the market is up and down, tomorrow the probability of bottoming out and rebounding to close the sun is larger, and the next main observation is the amount of energy and rebound strength. Now there is an invisible force in the market to lift, once the big fall is over, there will be a repair immediately.
Operationally, the intraday sharp fall can be boldly speculated, the position is strictly controlled, and the small rise and fall will not move, and the medium-term firm confidence in holding shares.