Today's trend is in line with expectations, but the gap has not been completely filled, tomorrow will continue to fill the gap downward, or overfall rebound, how the market will go, what factors affect the recent trend, let's briefly analyze:
1. The morning bottom rebounded, the afternoon shock fell, the three major stock indexes closed in the green across the board, the gem and the Shenzhen Component Index have made up for last Monday's gap, and the Shanghai Index will continue to fill the gap?
First, the fans who follow me know that during the long holiday, I posted every day to tell everyone that I am not optimistic about Monday's market, and I think that the probability of filling the gap is higher. The GEM and the Shenzhen Component Index took the lead in fulfilling the gap, and the Shanghai Composite Index partially filled the gap, and it is highly likely that it will continue to fill the gap tomorrow.
Second, for most people, think that the probability of today's upward rebound is larger, the main reason is that during the long holiday, the market is a lot better, the media summarized as six positives, good one: the central bank announced on April 7 the establishment of 500 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation re-lending funds, with an interest rate of 1.75%. Good 2: Many cities have issued notices on the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial loans for the first home. Good 3: The China-US Business Working Group held its first vice-ministerial meeting. Good 4: In early April, a number of small and medium-sized banks in Shanxi, Henan and other places announced that they would cut their fixed deposit interest rates. Good five: Since the beginning of this year, there have been signs of reallocation of global funds. Good six: only one new stock was listed last week, and there was zero subscription this week, which is the second time this year, which shows that the faucet of new stock expansion is getting tighter and tighter.
To be honest, we do not deny the role of the good, if we only see the good and turn a blind eye to the negative, it is completely blind, not Mount Tai. The central bank's 500 billion loans to support scientific and technological innovation are only good for the industry, and there is no good economic level that affects the market. Yellen's visit to China, foreign investors are optimistic about A-shares, etc., but they have not brought foreign capital to long, and other positive things are not much to watch, and in terms of negative news, the negative news of brokerages is riddled with negative news, the performance has declined, and the impact of brokerages on the market is self-evident. There is also the worrying monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which is like a sword hanging over the head of the global capital market.
The early start was unfavorable, the Shanghai Composite Index roller coaster trend hangs by a thread, and tomorrow a low opening will directly go down to fill the gap.
2. Will the market continue to fall after filling the gap tomorrow?
From the short-term trend, after filling the gap tomorrow, the market will have room to go down, the current downward pressure mainly comes from the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, the Shanghai Index short-term is supported by the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, and the requirements for a technical rebound are below. Why is there still no confidence in the short-term market, I originally thought that the market adjustment was in place after the vacancy, why do I think it will be adjusted?
First, institutional funds continue to retreat, for domestic institutions, we have long been accustomed to domestic institutions short, but the continuous outflow of foreign capital is somewhat incomprehensible, after all, foreign capital since the round of the market since the active long, foreign institutions are also trying their best to sing long A shares, sell India, buy China It seems to have become the consensus of foreign institutions, but in fact, the statistics of the trend of foreign capital in the past ten trading days, mainly outflow, which makes people doubt that the motive of foreign capital is not pure, but in fact, the overall point of the current index is not high, and foreign capital cannot start short in this position, more we understand that this is a short-term behavior, although the overall volume of foreign capital is not large, but the following force behind foreign capital is very large, so the recent continuous outflow of foreign capital has hit market confidence greatly.
Second, from a technical point of view, since the rebound of 2635 points, the index has risen by 455 points, but there has been no decent adjustment, the index has been adjusted at the 3100 point mark, there is nothing beyond expectations, it is very reasonable, very normal, according to the strong adjustment requirements, the minimum adjustment to around 2950 is also very reasonable, so this position adjustment is due to technical requirements. Only when the market is fully adjusted and the change of hands is sufficient, can it have the momentum to continue to attack.
Third, for the index to go up, it needs to form a certain synergy with the weight, and the weight is important to form a synergy, one is from the stimulation of the news surface, and the other is from the momentum of its own long. The stimulus on the news side comes from the blockbuster economic data, such as last week's manufacturing PMI data that exceeded expectations in March, and the next key is to see the upcoming March CPI and PPI data. If the data continues to grow and improve, it will definitely stimulate the weights to lead the index rally. And their own rebound momentum, the same needs a catalyst for the market to reach a consensus, banks, coal, oil and power and other rise is because of high dividend yields, with the continuous publication of annual reports, at least before the dividends these weights will basically not fall sharply, but real estate, brokerages are riddled with negative news, no attraction to funds, only to fall more to have the momentum of the reverse pump, insurance, wine and other performance in general, the same is not attractive to funds, and now the differentiation of weights leads to the index has no upward rebound momentum.
Fourth, the recent hot spot repeated rotation switching, funds are difficult to cut into, like the recent continuous non-ferrous metals as the representative of the cyclical stocks, the short-term rise is too large, the weekend news in the face of the non-ferrous sector hype, Wall Street's top economists predict that the price of gold will rise to $3,000, up 30% from the current level, many people are inevitably stimulated, plunged into it, the overall performance of gold stocks is not bad, many non-ferrous stocks rushed up and fell, short-term chasing people are very hurt.
Fifth, on April 11, that is, on Thursday, the domestic CPI and PPI data were released, and before the data came out, the market lacked upward momentum. Coupled with the differentiation of weights, the market lacks upward momentum, and the money-making effect is very poor, so the probability of going down is very large.
3. Tomorrow's trend is basically clear, where is the direction of attention?
The above is very clear, tomorrow after the gap is filled, will homeopathically break through the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, the market has a technical reversal of the momentum, can form a strong rebound, at present must observe the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext trend, these two major indices must be the first to stabilize, they do not stabilize, the Shanghai Index will also be downward, the reversal is also short-lived, not sustainable, at the same time to observe the trend of foreign capital, if foreign capital continues to flow out, do not easily talk about the bottom, while observing the white line representing the weight and the yellow line on behalf of the theme trend, if the theme is stronger, when the index breaks through the lower moving average, you can take the bottom of the big burden, if the weight is still leading the index, it's better not to move.
The market is dynamic, don't believe others in predicting a simple rise or fall in the market, you may not make money if it rises, and you may not lose money if it falls. Ups and downs are the end result of a contest of many factors. After closing, use a static disk to predict tomorrow's dynamic market, how big do you think such a winning rate is, it seems to be a very good reason, and the result is a wrong result, the reason is the result of carving the boat to seek the sword, how to interpret the disk, we must pay attention to the key factors that affect the market trend in the intraday.
Of course, if you can't do a relatively accurate dip, you must enter the market in a sharp fall, even if it falls again, at least ensure that your operation is correct, do the right thing for a long time, and hand over the winning rate to the market.
When the index rushed up, due to the lack of money-making effect and volume energy in the market, I made a T with the trend, and short-term trading was fast, accurate and ruthless. But the premise must be to control the position reasonably and leave enough bullets for yourself before you dare to buy the bottom when it falls.