On April 2, Tesla announced its delivery data for the first quarter of 2024, and from January to March this year, Tesla delivered a total of 386,800 vehicles worldwide, a new low in the past five quarters. Deliveries were down 8.5 percent year-over-year and 20.2 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.
Tesla may not have a good time in the future
Given that Tesla's sales of 386,800 units are significantly lower than the average of 457,000 units predicted by industry analysts, major media and investors are increasingly pessimistic about Tesla's prospects. Among them, Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber attributed the decline in Tesla's sales to Musk personally, because his "harmful behavior" caused Tesla's cars to not sell.
Musk himself immediately responded, and said that BYD's sales fell by 42%, and everyone had a hard time this quarter.
The sudden mention of BYD came as a surprise to the outside world, because Ross Gerber's post did not mention BYD. The contradiction between Musk's statement and Tesla's official press release about the attribution of the decline in sales - the Red Sea conflict and the arson of the Berlin Gigafactory - further adds to the confusion of the outside world.
After the delivery data was released, Tesla's U.S. stock fell 7% at one point. Since the first quarter of 2024, Tesla's stock price has fallen 29%, the largest quarterly decline since its IPO in 2010. At the time of writing, Tesla's market capitalization is $525.2 billion, which is almost halved compared with the trillion market value in 2022, and it is gradually moving away from the rest of the "six US stocks".
It is worth mentioning that on April 5, Musk posted on social networking sites that Tesla will launch the driverless taxi project Robotaix on August 8. Compared to the cheap Tesla "Model 2" that has been rumored on the Internet for a long time, the Roboaix project seems to have a higher priority.
But in any case, Tesla's growth and development seem to have slowed down, its internal difficulties and external challenges have gradually emerged, whether it is Robotaix or "Model 2", Tesla has to find a way to restore investor confidence in it.
Xiaomi was born
At this time, the domestic automobile market,Xiaomi car is undoubtedly the hottest topic,3month28At the press conference,Xiaomi benchmarked Tesla throughout the process,Lei Jun pointed to the comparison parameters of SU7 and Model 3 and said bluntly:More than 90% of the configuration Xiaomi SU7 is ahead,Only in power consumption and computing power are second to Model 3。
After Lei Jun announced the 215,900 price of Xiaomi SU7, the next sentence was: "30,000 cheaper than Model 3". Netizens gave vivid comments on the difference between the configuration of SU7 and Model 3, saying that it is like the gap between luxury decoration and rough house. Obviously, the Xiaomi SU7 is aimed at Tesla.
Musk and Tesla, who have always loved to "make trouble", did not respond to Lei Jun's repeated benchmarking, but directly adjusted the price of the product.
On April 1, Tesla raised the price of all Model Y models by 5,000 yuan, and at the same time canceled the current 8,000 yuan car insurance subsidy and 10,000 yuan car paint reduction policy, resulting in an actual price increase of up to 23,000 yuan. In addition, the North American and European markets also saw simultaneous price increases.
According to our analysis, the reason for Tesla's Model Y price increase is likely to be to prepare for the upcoming Model Y facelift, on the one hand, to control the order volume and production line status through price increases, and on the other hand, to make better price convergence when the new model is launched. This is also the first time that the Model Y has received a major facelift in the three years since its launch.
On April 3, Tesla China launched a limited-time low-interest replacement policy for Model 3/Y models, and launched a "0 interest" installment discount for the first time.
Tesla may not have a good time in the future
Taking the Model 3 standard version as an example, with a down payment of 79,900 yuan, the maximum discount for 36 installments is about 14,882 yuan, and if the 0 interest plan for repurchase/replacement is passed, the maximum discount for 60 installments is about 24,800 yuan.
Lei Jun once revealed on Weibo that at present, in addition to Tesla, many pure electric vehicles are suffering huge losses. To illustrate this, he personally analyzed Tesla's financial report, which found that although Tesla's operating efficiency is high, its profit margin is only 9.2%. Taking the price of the Model 3 at CNY 245,900 as an example, the price would need to be about CNY 223,000 to break even.
Tesla may not have a good time in the future
However, the interest-free offer offered by Tesla has reached 14,800 yuan to 24,800 yuan. Although it has not lost money so far, to some extent, Tesla has already felt the pressure of price competition in the market.
The disguised price reduction through financial interest-free is very reminiscent of the 24-period interest-free strategy adopted by Apple. This move is regarded as the only official discount by the "fruit fans". However, in the face of a serious decline in sales, Apple also had to directly reduce the price of the iPhone 15 series sold on its official website during the New Year.
In this way, in the face of multiple rounds of "encirclement and suppression" of new and old EV forces, coupled with the emergence of Xiaomi Auto, it is difficult for Tesla to hold on to the Chinese EV market, and its current interest-free preferential policy may soon be replaced by a direct reduction.
Changes in the EV environment in Europe and the U.S
Tesla blamed some "force majeure" for the "flash crash" in sales in the first quarter.
First, the outbreak of the Red Sea crisis interrupted shipping lanes and affected the supply of spare parts for Tesla, which announced on January 29 this year that it would temporarily suspend production at its factory in Berlin until February 11, when the shipping routes resumed on February 11.
Second, in March this year, environmental activists set fire to the infrastructure near Tesla's Berlin factory, causing the local staff and residents to be evacuated, which led to the suspension of Tesla's factory again.
But we think Tesla's situation is more complicated.
"The difference between deliveries and production means that Tesla has about 46,000 units in stock, which means that in addition to the known production bottlenecks, [Tesla] may have serious demand issues," Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner noted in the report. ”
The fundamental reason is that the attitude of the European and American markets towards pure electric vehicles has changed.
First of all, from the perspective of the policies of European and American countries, the urgency of vehicle electrification has decreased.
The UK has postponed the 2030 ban on the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles to 2035, Germany's subsidy policy, which was planned to last until the end of 2024, ended early at the end of last year, and France's new subsidy policy has also introduced more restrictions on models.
According to an analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the U.S. EPA has also relaxed its 2030 emissions reduction target, and the new standard does not mandate car companies to use a specific type of powertrain or fuel, and manufacturers can choose solutions that match their own technology to meet this standard.
On the surface, the European and American market policies seem to be no longer a mandatory option for vehicle manufacturers.
Secondly, from the perspective of consumer cars in Europe and the United States, people's demand for pure electric vehicles is relatively low.
Due to population density, geographical environment and other conditions, long-distance driving is more common in the United States. Statistics from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) show that Americans drive an average of 21,000 kilometers per year. In contrast, according to the F6 Big Data Research Institute's "2022 Maintenance Industry White Paper", the average annual mileage of passenger cars in China in 2022 is only 9,970 kilometers.
High-frequency, long-distance driving is the norm for American car owners, but the construction of supporting facilities and infrastructure for pure electric vehicles is very slow. According to Xinhua News Agency, the United States has only built seven public charging stations for electric vehicles in more than two years. In a survey by the Associated Press, nearly eight out of ten respondents said the lack of local charging infrastructure was the main reason they didn't buy an electric vehicle.
On the other side of the world, affected by events such as the "Russia-Ukraine conflict", Europe's energy structure has changed, and the shortage of cheap natural gas has led to an increase in the cost of power generation, and "electricity is more expensive than oil" has also become a realistic factor that tram consumers have to face.
Finally, judging from the actions of automakers, multinational automakers have withdrawn or slowed down their electric transformation plans.
According to Bloomberg Industry Research, U.S. electric vehicle sales will grow by just 9% this year, compared with a compound annual growth rate of 65% over the past three years. The change means automakers are competing for less than 10 percent of new car buyers in the U.S. market.
In January this year, Ford, an American automaker, announced the closure of electric vehicle production lines, ending Ford's electrification transformation. According to Ford's financial report, Ford's electric vehicle business lost $4.7 billion in 2023, and in 2021 and 2022, Ford's electric vehicle business lost $900 million and $2.1 billion, respectively.
Audi CEO Gordon said that in the short term, it will continue to promote internal combustion engines and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and slow down the launch of pure electric vehicles. Mercedes-Benz has also postponed its original target of 50% NEV sales in 2025 to 2030.
According to Kelley Blue Book, electric vehicle sales in the United States will reach 1.189 million units in 2023, of which Tesla's Model Y and Model 3 models sold 615,000 units, accounting for a whopping 51.7% market share. To some extent, Tesla's outlook is closely linked to the development trend of the U.S. pure electric industry.
However, the slowdown in the growth of pure electric vehicle sales in Europe and the United States is the result of the combined impact of multiple factors such as policy adjustments, geopolitical environment, and industrial models, and it is difficult for a single company to change it on its own, which puts a conspicuous question mark on Tesla's continued growth.
The pressure in China has doubled
Previously, Tesla's success in the Chinese market was due to a number of key factors.
First of all, Tesla has built a strong brand influence with its first-mover advantage in technological innovation. Secondly, by establishing a gigafactory in Shanghai, it has effectively reduced production costs and improved the efficiency of the supply chain, which provides a solid foundation for its competition in the Chinese market.
In addition, China's active policy support for the new energy vehicle industry has also provided a favorable development environment for companies such as Tesla. As a leader in this industry, Tesla has been able to enjoy policy dividends, including tax incentives and subsidies, which have further promoted Tesla's growth and expansion in the Chinese market.
You know, in February 2020 and February 2021, Tesla's model sales were about 2 times and 4.5 times that of BYD, respectively. However, with the development and maturity of domestic new energy brands such as BYD and Geely, Tesla's market share has also changed.
According to the retail sales data of car manufacturers in the passenger association, Tesla's sales in China in February 2024 will be 30,000 units, accounting for 7.8% of the domestic new energy market share, down 11.1% from the same period last year. Tesla's deliveries of Chinese-made vehicles totaled 132,000 in the first two months of this year, down 6.2% from 2023.
Tesla may not have a good time in the future
The challenges faced by Tesla China first come from the increasingly fierce market competition, not only the EV transformation of traditional car manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Chery, but also the transformation and entry of technology manufacturers such as "Wei Xiaoli", Huawei, and Xiaomi.
In terms of price, Tesla's entry-level model Model 3 is as high as 245,900, and since the beginning of the year, domestic new energy vehicle companies have taken turns to reduce prices, and the price of BYD's facelifted model has even hit the figure 7, entering the era of "electricity is lower than oil". Xiaomi has launched a 215,900 C-class car Xiaomi SU7, which is not only one level higher than Model 3, but also a full price drop of 30,000.
Consumer preferences have also changed, with Tesla gaining the favor of consumers by relying on its leading technology and strong brand charm. However, with the maturity of domestic new energy technology and changes in supply, Tesla's advantages are becoming less and less obvious. Whether it is battery life, space, intelligence or basic functional configuration, it is surpassed by competing products with the same or even lower price in many aspects.
When buying a car, consumers also consider more factors. For example, the entry-level models of Xiaomi, Zeekr, Zhijie and other models all include driving assistance systems, while the assisted driving functions of Model 3 require an additional 32,000 yuan. In addition, the in-car entertainment service package of Tesla models also needs to be unlocked at 34.99 yuan/month after a trial of 30 days.
Tesla may not have a good time in the future
In terms of exports, China's pure electric supply momentum is also stronger, seizing a lot of the limelight from Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, Thailand's AutoLife statistics show that the local tram registration ranking is almost dominated by Chinese car companies, of which BYD Atto 3's 19,214 units are much higher than Tesla's Model Y's 5,881 units.
Obviously, Tesla China is a little powerless in the face of fierce local market competition and changing consumer demand, and it is difficult to maintain the next sales growth by relying solely on the "brand halo" and first-mover advantage. Whether it is in the European and American markets or the Chinese market, Tesla needs to find new breakthroughs.
Look for new breakthroughs
According to reports, Tesla plans to launch an entry-level battery electric vehicle priced at $25,000 in 2025, aiming to expand the low-cost market and revolutionize its production system. It is reported that Tesla is gradually adopting a new manufacturing process called "unbox". This process is expected to cut production costs in half, while reducing the footprint required for manufacturing by more than 40%.
However, this model, which is called "Model 2" by netizens, has sparked heated discussions three years ago. As for when it will actually appear in front of consumers, there is no definite word yet. However, regardless of the design of the Model 2 and how much it can reduce costs, it is still difficult to address the changes in the EV sales environment.
Recently, Tesla also has good news, the full self-driving system FSD (Full Self-Drive) has recently been updated to version 2024.3.10, it is worth noting that the word Beta (beta) in the previous version was deleted and replaced by Supervised (supervision), according to the official statement, under the supervision of the owner, the latest version of FSD Supervised can drive Tesla almost anywhere.
With the smooth development of the FSD system, the unmanned taxi project Robotaxi seems to have confidence, Musk very much needs "a big thing" to rebuild the confidence of the market, and it is rumored that the Robotaxi model will no longer need traditional control components, such as steering wheels and pedals, because the vehicle will completely rely on autonomous driving technology to operate, which is indeed more in line with the current development trend of artificial intelligence as the mainstream technology.
Most analysts believe that Tesla is a technology company, not an automaker. While it's true that 85% of Tesla's revenue comes from EV sales, investors see its self-driving software and robotics projects as potentially more valuable long-term opportunities.
Ark Investment Management believes that Tesla's stock price could soar more than 10 times by 2027 with self-driving technology alone, which could change the company's economic situation.
After Apple gave up the car business, Tesla has become the only star in the field of smart cars and autonomous driving, especially at the current stage of the rapid development of generative AI large models, no technology company has any reason to give up the exploration of the field of intelligence, Musk posted: I think Tesla will also usher in a ChatGPT moment, even if it is not this year, I think it will not be later than next year.
If Tesla is to resume its growth, it seems that it cannot rely solely on its traditional business model, but needs to initiate a new revolution that will revolutionize the car market, as it did back then.
