If you want to ask which company has risen the best in recent times, Xingqi eye medicine said second, and no one dared to say first.
On February 8, the stock price was only 130 yuan, and on March 29, it rose to nearly 240 yuan, which is really about to double in more than a month.
It's a company I've been following for a few years, but it's not on my list of companies that I track on a daily basis.
It happened to be the Qingming Festival holiday, and a friend came to me to talk about this company, and there was a lot of information about the "myopia miracle drug" during this time, so I would probably talk about Xingqi eye medicine.
1. The way to make a fortune
Xingqi Ophthalmic Medicine's leading product is called "atropine sulfate", which does not have much information in the company's financial report at present, and only appears in R&D projects, so many people may not be familiar with it.
In fact, this is a special situation, this product has long contributed a large part of the company's performance, but it is not an ordinary road.
This is the performance of Xingqi eye medicine in the past few years, and the years I framed in red, green, and blue are three special time nodes.
First of all, before 2018, the company had not sold atropine products, so the performance was mediocre, with a revenue of 430 million and a net profit of only 9 million.
However, on January 29, 2019, the company made the following announcement.
There is a word in this announcement called "medical institution preparation", which means that it can produce internal drugs for its own use according to the needs of its own hospitals.
To put it bluntly, it can only be used by its own hospital, not sold externally.
This is not uncommon, and it's not uncommon for hospitals to have their own secret recipes.
This year's performance has increased, with revenue of 542 million yuan increasing by 25.8% year-on-year, and net profit is exaggerated, reaching 30 million, a significant increase of 227.59% year-on-year.
But after all, it can only be sold in its own offline hospitals, and the sales are destined to be no better, and the patients received every day are always limited.
So Xingqi Eye Medicine thought of an ingenious way, and the ingenuity is in the following announcement.
See me in the red box? Xingqi Eye Hospital Internet Hospital.
Offline medical institutions have been transformed into Internet hospitals.
Since the offline reception is limited, there is no limit to selling it online, anyway, it is still for internal use, and there is no export sales, so it is not illegal.
This method worked really well, and the performance took off directly in the following two years, with revenue of 690 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of 93 million, a year-on-year increase of 216.7%.
Moreover, the growth rate in 2021 will be very fast, with revenue exceeding one billion to reach 1.028 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.26%, and net profit rising to 244 million, a year-on-year increase of 137.51%.
But this situation only lasted for two years, and in May 2022, the Food and Drug Administration issued a draft opinion, and the way of Xingqi eye medicine may not work and should be stopped.
In fact, the purpose of setting up the product to be used only in your own hospital is to give you enough room to play professionally, but because the product may be defective, it is not suitable for large-scale use.
Xingqi eye medicine obviously goes against this original intention, so since then, it can no longer be sold online.
This is the reason why the company's revenue in 2022 will be 1.25 billion, an increase of only 21.59% year-on-year, and the net profit will only be 212 million, an increase of only 1.23% year-on-year.
The 2023 annual report has not yet been released, and according to the data of the third quarterly report, it will definitely not be possible last year.
In the first three quarters of last year, except for the revenue of 1.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, all other core financial data were declining, and the net profit was only 182 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%.
From the process just mentioned, it can be seen that it is possible for a company to ride a roller coaster by relying on a large single product.
So what is the magic of this "atropine" that makes Xingqi eye medicine rise and fall, and is it possible for the company to rise again in the future?
Second, the miracle drug for myopia
Yesterday, in order to seek an authoritative explanation, I specially found a friend who is an ophthalmology professor at Xiangya Hospital and consulted in detail about the so-called myopia miracle drug "atropine".
Let's first figure out what atropine is.
Strictly speaking, atropine is an anticholinergic drug, which has many effects, mainly used to relieve pupillary sphincter and ciliary muscle spasm, affect retinal signaling, delay the elongation of the eye axis, and also dilate the pupil.
In the vernacular, it is possible to treat myopia.
In accurate vernacular, false myopia can be treated, and the severity of true myopia can be delayed.
At first glance, this can indeed be called a miracle drug, and myopia can be treated.
Of course, this effect is indeed true, because low-concentration atropine is currently the only evidence-based medicine that can reduce myopia, especially in adolescents between the ages of 4 and 16.
However, it is important to note that there is a difference between remission and treatment, but it is good to be able to remission.
That parent doesn't want their child to have a good vision, even if he is already nearsighted, who doesn't want to be relieved, even if it can't be cured, the vision will no longer decline.
According to official data, the overall myopia rate among children and adolescents in mainland China is 51.9%, including 36.7% of primary school students, 71.4% of junior high school students, and 81.2% of high school students.
This data is not only based on a high base, but also growing, the reason is also very simple, there are two main reasons, one is to watch too many electronic products, especially playing games and watching TV for too long, and the second is the high intensity of learning.
At present, there are only three ways to alleviate myopia recognized by the industry, one is to play outdoors for more than two hours a day, the second is to wear OK glasses, and the third is to use atropine.
In the current educational environment, it is unlikely that junior high school students and high school students will play outside for more than two hours a day.
The price of a box of atropine is less than 300 yuan, which can be used for a month and costs 10 yuan a day, which is acceptable to everyone.
So as long as you know this medicine and believe in this medicine, you will go to the Internet hospital where Xingqi eye medicine was used before to buy it, and he is the only one in China, so it can't be popular.
According to the information I asked my friend to verify, his exact words were: "The effect is true, but the mechanism of action is still unclear." ”
It means that this low-concentration atropine sulfate with a concentration of 0.01% does have the effect of delaying myopia, but there are no clear research results on why it can be delayed.
According to existing animal experiments, it is "probably" achieved by stimulating dopamine secretion and increasing the blood supply to the choroid, because when the level of dopamine is high, the eye axis becomes longer and slows down, thus delaying myopia.
The key word in this is the "maybe" I put in quotation marks, and there is no clear experimental result at present, which also shows that there is a problem, there may be a risk of side effects.
Of course, this is a rigorous statement as a doctor, and this thing is not unusable.
Finally, the results of our discussion are that adolescents who are already myopic can use it, but adolescents who have not yet become myopic or pseudomyopia should not use this to prevent myopia.
I'm not afraid of 10,000, I'm afraid of what if.
It is important to note that even if atropine can alleviate myopia, it will be worse vision, not better vision after remission.
Myopia is irreversible, it is a physical change, that is, the structure of the eye has changed, unless it is forced to change again by surgery, it is impossible to recover with a few drops of eye drops.
Therefore, atropine cannot be called a "myopia miracle drug", at least not so miraculous!
To really effectively alleviate myopia, it is still necessary to exercise more outdoors, play more, and exchange a lifetime of myopia for a diploma of a certain school, anyway, in my opinion, it is not cost-effective.
3. New drugs are approved
Although Xingqi Eye Medicine's Internet hospital has stopped, the company's pace of breakthrough has not stopped, and on the 11th of last month, the company issued an announcement.
Atropine sulfate eye drops have obtained the approval certificate, which means that it can finally be sold generously, and can be sold casually, no longer limited to the internal use of their own hospitals.
On this day, the capital market gave special face, and the stock price rose directly from about 160 yuan to nearly 200 yuan, and then rose for 9 consecutive days, except for March 14, until about 237 yuan on the 21st.
This period has been slightly lowered, and as of April 7, the market value is still 27.8 billion.
A company that earns more than 200 million yuan a year can have a market value as high as this......
Some people may say that such a good "miracle drug" is now completely unfettered, and it will definitely sell in the future, and it will sell as much as you want, and it is not impossible to sell tens of billions a year.
Let's not dwell on the word "miracle medicine", let's just think it's very godly.
But there are two problems here, the first is that companies that rely on large single products, is it really risk-free?
Of course, this can also be refuted, why can't you sell a good product?
Yes, it is true, and for people with a strong risk tolerance, betting on a product is nothing.
The second question is, is there no competitor for such a good thing?
There is no way to refute this question, because there are already hard facts.
For example, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, the strength is strong enough, look at the research and development of the 2023 semi-annual report.
This is a screenshot from the content of the main clinical R&D pipeline of innovative drugs under development in the semi-annual report, the blue meaning in the table represents the clinical progress, and atropine was already in phase III clinical trial last year.
In addition, there are a lot of competitors, such as the aforementioned OK lens, and the industry giant "Ocumension" is also developing atropine, and it has reached phase III clinical status.
There is also a Japanese ophthalmic drug giant "Santen Pharmaceutical", which is also in phase III clinical trials.
Does anyone think it is strange how Xingqi eye medicine has just been approved, and so many companies have made progress so quickly, is there no patent protection?
Patent protection is definitely there, but look at the company's announcement.
See me with a red box, Xingqi eye medicine's atropine is declared as a Class 3 chemical.
Friends who are concerned about the medical industry should know that drugs are divided into Class I, Class II and Class III drugs.
The meaning of a class of drugs is pure original drugs, which are not available at home and abroad.
Class II drugs mean that they have not been sold at home and abroad, but the route of administration has been changed and the existing ones have been innovated for the second time.
The third class of drugs is what we often call generic drugs, that is, they are already being sold abroad.
It was originally an imitation of others, of course, there is no patent protection, no matter who it is, as long as you have the strength, you can do it at any time.
But there is a difference, Xingqi Ophthalmology said in the announcement that the indications for atropine are as follows:
"This product is used to delay the progression of myopia in children aged 6 to 12 years with spherical power of -1.00D to -4.00D (astigmatism ≤1.50D, anisometropia ≤1.50D). ”
That is to say, this atropine is positioned as a children's drug, and the children's generic drug has a 12-month protection period according to our policy.
Therefore, in the next year, there will only be atropine in China, which monopolizes the market, and how much it can gnaw down depends on the company's ability.
But a year later, it will inevitably be a group of heroes, and the market will be a sword and shadow, which is called "involution".
So in the case of involution, who dares to say that Xingqi eye medicine can earn him tens of billions a year?
Fourth, summary
Xingqi eye medicine is actually very representative, so I will talk about it a little bit today, and I rarely talk about companies outside my "A-share core asset research summary" table, because I am always afraid of risks.
I believe that in the past two years, some people have made money on Xingqi eye medicine, after all, it has risen from 60 yuan to more than 200 now, because it is now at a historical high, so those who entered before this must be profitable.
That's the magic of hype, typical.
But it's hard to say in the future, it's too cold to be in high places!
I made the following table of "A-share Core Assets Research Summary", which selects hundreds of high-quality companies and attaches tens of thousands of words of analysis methods.
All companies analyzed will update their data in the table above.
Exploring the study of corporate fundamentals together, the gains are bound to be huge.
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