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After the Qingming holiday, the domestic market for a variety of agricultural products changed again, in the pig and grain market, the market warning attacked, among them, in the pig market, pig prices continued to rise, however, the rally gradually narrowed, and the risk of the market soaring and falling surged. In the grain market, corn and wheat showed a downward trend across the board, wheat was affected by insufficient demand, and the rotation of grain depots intensified, and quotations fell under pressure. Corn is up in front of the enterprise, factory quotations fell in a narrow range, and the market continued the trend of "grinding the bottom"! So, what are the changes in the market? Today is April 8, and the prices of corn, wheat, and live pigs have been updated after the price adjustment!
The price of live pigs "rises and falls"!
In terms of live pigs, slaughtered enterprises to adjust the price of pigs, on April 8, pig prices continued to rise, the price of foreign three yuan lean pig rose to 15.25 yuan / kg, pig prices hit a stage high, up 0.11 yuan / kg from yesterday, the domestic market continued to rise most of the trend, however, in the northern region, pig prices stabilized and the downward phenomenon increased, and the market sentiment deteriorated!
On the one hand, the phased consumption follow-up deterioration, from the perspective of the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises, at present, the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises is about 27.6%, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and this week, the average loss of mainstream slaughtering enterprises has further expanded, in particular, the white strip is not smooth, the price difference between gross white and white has narrowed, and the mainstream slaughtering enterprises have a certain sentiment of reducing the price of pigs;
On the other hand, by the rise of pig prices against the trend, the mentality of entering the second breed has weakened again, while the enthusiasm of retail pig farms has become stronger, the supply of social pig sources has increased, and the difficulty of slaughtering some group pig enterprises has increased significantly, and the bullish confidence of the market has weakened!
Therefore, based on the change in market sentiment and the decline in consumption support after the holiday, I personally believe that although pig prices continue to rise, however, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs has gradually decreased, and the enthusiasm for price increases has gradually decreased, and it is expected that in the next 1~3 days, pig prices may show a slight decline again!
Wheat prices fell widely!
At present, the wheat market is obviously under pressure, and the phased production and marketing show a certain mismatch pressure, the specific analysis is as follows:
On the one hand, with the Qingming Festival after the North and South regions, the temperature has further risen, and the enthusiasm of residents to hoard flour has weakened, especially the difficulty of flour storage has increased, and it is very easy to mildew and the phenomenon of resurgence.
In terms of bran, due to the decline in soybean meal prices, corn market deviations, loose corn and alternative grain inventories of feed enterprises, poor enthusiasm for enterprises to purchase bran, high difficulty in bran shipments, weak quotation adjustment, milling enterprises are facing severe loss pressure, the operating rate continues to decline, the operating rate of mainstream small and medium-sized flour mills has dropped to about 30%, and the mentality of raw grain replenishment has decreased!
On the other hand, the supply of wheat is relatively loose, although the surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, and the channel inventory is gradually consumed, but, due to the poor sales of flour, milling enterprises generally maintain a low inventory level, and the wheat is mainly replenished by just need!
Therefore, under the long-short game, the wheat market is under pressure, and the price is showing a downward trend! From the analysis of institutional data, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, Wudeli, Jinshahe, etc., mainstream milling enterprises, wheat price range is 0.2~1 cent/jin, and the average price of domestic spot wheat is about 1.35~1.385 yuan/jin!
Corn prices are under pressure and falling!
In terms of corn, recently, the corn market ushered in a favorable policy, however, the domestic spot quotation is still dominated by the purchase and sale, from the market feedback, due to the slow circulation of corn, enterprises just need to replenish the main, the main body of grain sentiment differentiation, corn rise pressure, some areas, by the sale of grain sentiment is strong, the price is slightly weak!
Among them, in terms of ports, due to the southern sales area market, feed and deep processing are mainly substituted by imported corn and grains, domestic trade corn procurement is not cost-effective, and there are more corn inventories in southern ports, which also inhibits the performance of northern port shipments, and the inventory in northern ports increases, and the market is dominated by pre-order delivery.
In the Northeast market, due to the transfer of grassroots grain source traders, traders are reluctant to sell the price mentality, in particular, by the policy of storage support, corn circulation has decreased, however, the performance of enterprises is poor, deep processing to maintain inertia replenishment, enterprise quotations are stable, sporadic quotations are slightly stronger!
Among them, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia producing areas, mainstream enterprises are listed steadily, Zhalantun Fufeng rose 1 point, the price is 1.135 yuan / jin, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia, corn spot price is about 1.115 ~ 1.185 yuan / jin!
In the North China market, due to the rising temperature, traders and grassroots farmers have a strong sentiment to sell grain, the supply of circulation channels is loose, the arrival volume of enterprises has surged, factories purchase on demand, and the inventory of deep processing enterprises is safe, and the quotations of mainstream enterprises have fallen slightly!
Among them, in the Shandong market, due to the amount of more than 1,000 cars in front of the enterprise, the factory quotation is weakly adjusted, among them, Binzhou Jinhui, Zou Cheng Xilai, Yucheng Bowling Bao, etc., many companies have a price of about 0.2~0.7 cents/catty!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, the corn market may continue to be weak and stable, and the bottom of the corn market in the northeast market is strong, but the performance is not good, and the supply and demand continue to stalemate. In the North China market, due to the changes in the sentiment of grain sales at the grassroots level, enterprises roll to replenish the warehouse, corn quotations may rise and fall slightly, and the phased market is still in the cycle of bottoming!