At the end of August last year and the beginning of September, after the mainstream soybean meal quotation of domestic oil mills rose above 5,000 yuan/ton, the import of soybeans into Hong Kong continued to increase, and various domestic breeding industries suffered from the situation of "peak season is not prosperous", and the price of spot soybean meal fell down!
Entering 24 years, by the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory of both high inventory of the current situation, downstream traders and feed enterprises are mainly low inventory, the market "buy up not buy down", soybean meal prices fell again, at the end of February, the spot soybean meal price bottomed out at a new low, and the oil mill price fell to 3200 yuan/ton!
With the Brazilian soybean discount price rebounded sharply to about 120 cents / bushel, 1~2 months, domestic imported soybeans to Hong Kong sharply decreased, the operating rate of oil mills continued to decline, the cost of imported soybeans surged, some oil mills by soybean inventory consumption, "broken beans" shutdown phenomenon increased, downstream traders and feed enterprises appeared centralized replenishment operations, especially, in March, pig prices showed a contrarian upward trend, the demand for two breeding and piglets to fill the fence increased, the level of feed consumption was boosted, and the soybean meal spot showed a sharp rise trend!
In late March, the spot price of soybean meal in coastal oil mills rose by 3680 yuan/ton, and the quotation price of some enterprises reached 480 yuan/ton!
Superimposed, the market for 4 ~ 5 months, domestic imported soybeans to Hong Kong is expected to be stronger, some institutions predict that soybeans in April will reach 9.2 million tons, imported soybeans in May or will reach more than 9.5 million tons, the prospect of loose soybean meal supply is gradually clear, market replenishment demand is gradually weakening, feed and downstream traders are mainly just need to purchase, soybean meal quotation rushed up and fell!
At present, the domestic coastal aspect, soybean meal spot quotation fell to 3300 ~ 3360 yuan / ton, compared with the previous high point, the oil mill quotation 1 ton fell by more than 300, the market still has downward pressure!
Personally, I believe that at present, the soybean meal market has a weak pattern of shocks, especially in the second quarter, the level of domestic imported soybeans is higher, and the mainstream aquaculture industry is in the seasonal off-season, therefore, the soybean meal market or will be under pressure to run weakly!
However, from a rational point of view, the soybean meal market bottom support still exists, on the one hand, the cost of imported soybeans is higher, at present, the Brazilian soybean discount quotation is about 108 cents, the domestic soybean into the port duty-paid cost or will be more than 3900 yuan / ton, supported by the cost, oil mill soybean meal still has a certain price sentiment;
Therefore, in the short term, soybean meal spot or will be dominated by weak shocks, and in May, the center of gravity of soybean meal prices may have significant downward pressure. However, due to the agency's prediction, after June 24, El Niño will turn into a La Niña event, and climate fluctuations may intensify the market speculation!
In particular, U.S. beans are in the planting and growth stage, and La Niña is very likely to cause drought and little rain in North America, which may affect the expectation of the new season's U.S. bean production capacity, which will also affect the performance of the U.S. bean market, and have a certain impact on the domestic soybean meal spot.