Whether it is the new car sales market or the capital market, in the competition within the new power camp in March, the five new power brands have all been reduced to supporting roles.
Looking back at March, China's five major new car-making forces were "attacked on their backs". In the capital market, the stock price trend of Ideal and Xiaomi, which were also launched in March, is very different;
Also in March, although Ideal and Weilai have successively lowered their delivery outlook for the first quarter, just like at the Xiaomi SU7 press conference, Li Xiang, Li Bin, and He Xiaopeng, who were invited to sit in the audience, watched Lei Jun stand on the stage and talk eloquently, in the sales competition of the new force camp in the first quarter of 2024, ideal, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Leap and Nezha, these "traditional" new forces of car manufacturing, have all been reduced to supporting roles.
The sales volume of the world is upside down, and Xiaomi cars enter the market to disrupt the situation
First of all, let's pay attention to the performance of the six new car-making forces registered in the "Auto K-line" in March.
Wenjie still continued the strong performance of the previous two months, with a monthly delivery volume of 31,727 vehicles, an increase of 50.07% from February, beating Li Auto for the third consecutive month, and firmly occupying the top spot in the delivery volume ranking of new forces.
On the same day that Wenjie released the delivery volume, the production and sales express report of Sailis Group released in March 2024, showing that the monthly sales volume of the group's Sailis automobile segment (including Wenjie) was 24,986 vehicles, which was significantly lower than the monthly delivery volume of Wenjie, and the gap between the two reached 6,741 vehicles.
In fact, in January this year, there was an inversion of nearly 2,000 sales figures between Wenjie and Celis. This situation is mainly due to the difference in the statistical caliber of the two data.
"Image source: Celis Group's March 2024 Production and Sales Report"
The data of the sales volume of Cialis Automobile in the production and sales express report is closer to the wholesale sales volume of Cialis Group, which includes the two brands of Cialis and Wenjie. The delivery volume announced by Wenjie only refers to the sales data of the product delivered to the user.
Judging from the fact that the cumulative delivery volume of Wenjie and the cumulative sales data of Cialis Automobile in the first three months of this year have been inverted to less than 1,800 vehicles, the inventory clearance of Wenjie dealers is close to completion. Subsequently, the question of no inventory pressure may usher in the adjustment of marketing strategies.
In March, the gap between Li Auto and Wenjie has expanded to more than 2,700 units, and there is a tendency to be completely left behind by its opponents. Although Li Auto temporarily overtook in the second week of March with an advantage of about 800 units, it was completely defeated. In the end, Li Auto delivered 28,984 vehicles in the whole month, an increase of 39.19% and 43.12% year-on-year respectively, and continued to stay in second place on the list.
The reason why Li Auto was weak in the process of catching up with the world in March is that it has to mention that Li MEGA, which was originally pinned on by Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, had high hopes, but after its listing on March 1, it fell into the whirlpool of public opinion, and even suffered a large number of refunds.
Although the turmoil subsided slightly with Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, posting an article "admitting his mistake", admitting that there was a problem with the rhythm of Ideal MEGA's listing. But in the end, the attention of public opinion was diverted by the official launch of the Xiaomi SU7.
Although the Xiaomi SU7 was officially launched at the end of March, it is not realistic to have a subversive impact on the sales pattern of new forces in a short period of time, subject to the initial production capacity. However, from the perspective of the capital market, Xiaomi SU7, which broke the circle when it was released, has turned the new power camp upside down.
As analyzed in the article "March Auto Stock Rise and Fall List: Dongfeng Rises, Blue Valley Chases; Xiaomi Enters the Game, New Forces Fall Behind", Xiaomi Automobile's entry has triggered a series of chain reactions in the capital market, and I will not repeat it here.
"Image source: Leapmotor WeChat public account"
In March, the delivery volume of Leapmotor reached 14,567 vehicles, a significant increase of 136.02% and 121.86% year-on-year respectively, ranking with NIO, which delivered 11,866 new cars, and returned to the top 3 of the new power list.
Xpeng Motors and Nezha Motors also swapped positions this month, with monthly deliveries of 9,026 and 8,317 respectively.
NIO is powerless to catch up, and the ideal accepts second
After analyzing the performance of various new forces in March, let's take a look at what kind of trend they showed in the first quarter. On the whole, the gap between the quarterly deliveries of various new forces is gradually widening, and the overall situation has become clearer.
"Image source: Li Auto press release"
On March 21, 20 days after the launch of MEGA, Li Auto announced that it would lower its delivery forecast for the first quarter to 76,000~78,000 units. This is an adjustment of 24,000~25,000 units compared to the original expected level of 100,000~103,000 units.
In the first quarter of this year, although the delivery volume increased by nearly 53% year-on-year to 80,400 units, it was fully opened by the Wenjie to a gap of more than 5,400 vehicles, and the delivery volume in the first quarter of this year has reached 85,842 vehicles.
Coincidentally, following Li Auto, NIO issued an announcement on the evening of March 27, lowering the delivery guidance for the first quarter from the previous 31,000~33,000 to 30,000, a reduction of 3%-9%.
"Image source: NIO announcement"
NIO, which used to be able to catch up closely behind Li Auto, now wants to be among the top 3 on the list, but it depends on the faces of others. In the first quarter, NIO delivered a total of 30,053 vehicles, only ranking third from the bottom of the list. And in stark contrast to its rivals, whose deliveries increased by more than 50% or even several times year-on-year, NIO's deliveries in the first quarter not only did not grow, but fell by 3.18% year-on-year.
Such a performance of delivery volume seems to explain where Li Bin's slightly embarrassed smile comes from sitting at the Xiaomi SU7 press conference.
On the contrary, according to its 2023 performance announcement released on March 25, Leapmotor, which has always been low-key, achieved a number of strategic goals last year, such as a positive gross profit margin, a narrowing of net loss, and a significant increase in revenue. After entering 2024, the momentum shown by Leapmotor in the sales side is very optimistic.
After the stalemate with NIO in the first two months, the cumulative delivery volume in the first quarter reached 33,410 vehicles, further consolidating the lead over NIO, from less than 700 units in February to nearly 3,400 units, and Leapmotor firmly ranked third in quarterly deliveries.
It is worth mentioning that the delivery volume of Leapmotor in the first quarter increased by 217.92% year-on-year, doubling, and in the entire list, it is second only to Celis Automobile, which shows that Leapmotor has made significant progress at the beginning of this year.
As for the last two on the list, Nezha Automobile and Xiaopeng Motors, delivered 24,434 and 21,821 vehicles respectively in the first quarter. Both new forces are trying to do one thing in the first quarter, and that is to seek breakthroughs in overseas markets. It's just that the two go in different directions.
Nezha Automobile will target the Southeast Asian market.
When analyzing the delivery volume of Nezha Automobile in February, "Auto K-line" mentioned that it was about to achieve localized production in Southeast Asia. Up to now, Nezha Automobile's Thailand plant has started large-scale production, and successfully held a dealer conference in Thailand.
In addition, Nezha Automobile announced on March 20 that it has become a key corporate partner of the Hong Kong SAR government, not only receiving a subsidy of HK$200 million from the SAR government and assisting in the investment of US$200 million in the cornerstone round.
Xpeng Motors has set its overseas destination in Europe.
Xpeng Motors announced on March 28 that the Xpeng G9 and Xpeng P7 models will be officially launched in Germany. According to Xpeng Motors, it has set its goal of achieving a 3% market share in the German new energy vehicle market by the end of the year, and will also enter other European markets, including France, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
Views of AutosKline
Obviously, Nezha Motors and Xpeng Motors are well aware that the performance of overseas markets may become an important opportunity for each to improve its sales ranking.
For the rest of this year, Wenjie, Li Auto, Leapmotor and NIO will face the front and back attacks of Xiaomi Auto and Huawei's remaining three worlds.
Not only that, in addition to new entrants, traditional car companies continue to make efforts in the new energy track, relying on the accumulated technical strength and "money ability" for many years, traditional car companies have also squeezed the production environment of new forces.
What will happen to the new forces that started 2024 with lower quarterly sales expectations?
At that time, will the "rice flour" be harder or the "pollen" stronger?
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