During the Qingming holiday, the external market fluctuated greatly. Among them, on April 4 (U.S. time), the three major indexes of the U.S. stock market opened sharply higher, and they could still maintain high shocks in the morning, once approaching the previous high, but plummeted in the afternoon. In the final session, the Standard & Poor's, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones fell by 1.23%, 1.40%, and 1.35%, respectively.
Subsequently, on April 5 (Beijing time), the Asia-Pacific market also fell more than rose. Except for Indonesia, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, the stock markets rose slightly, and the rest fell to varying degrees. Japan's Nikkei 225 led the decline in Asia-Pacific with a margin of 1.96%, followed by Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index down 1.04% and South Korea's component index down 0.97%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.46% intraday, but gradually recovered before that, and edged down 0.01% at the end of the session. The Xinhua A50 was also affected by the rebound in Hong Kong stocks, rebounding from an intraday plunge of 1.49% to a slight decline of 0.67%.
Before the holiday, A-shares showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and some analysts believe that the main factors influencing the trend of A-shares after the holiday are the macro data of the first quarter, the annual report performance of listed companies, and whether they can attract sufficient incremental funds to enter the market.
It is worth noting that in terms of the monthly data in March, both the number of public fund issuances and the filing data of private equity products have shown a significant upward momentum.
Foreign capital returned, and the fund purchase restrictions were relaxed
Qian Qimin, co-director of the research department of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with Yicai that before the Spring Festival, the theme of A-shares was led and promoted by funds, and the short-term color was strong. However, there is no particularly obvious signal about the direction of the market after the Qingming Festival, but market confidence has indeed been consumed in the repeated consolidation.
Qian Qimin believes that after the holiday, investors need to pay attention to the macroeconomic data of the first quarter, the annual reports of listed companies and the performance of the first quarter.
"From the current situation, I think the short-term market will be in a state of consolidation, and we will look for a new breakthrough direction after the holiday. Of course, if the market breaks through upward, there must be a grasp and a stable and continuous hot spot to attract incremental funds. If the amount of energy can not be amplified in this position, the opportunity to move up is relatively limited. Qian Qimin said.
It is worth noting that at the beginning of the second quarter, a number of active equity funds gathered to resume large-amount subscriptions or individual investor subscriptions, or increased large-amount subscription limits, some of which are products managed by well-known fund managers.
Since April 1, the Bank of Communications Qicheng Mixed managed by Yang Jinjin has adjusted the single-day subscription limit from the previous 1,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan, directly relaxing it to 50 times the original. The fund has subscribed for 1,000 yuan since June 26 last year, and such strict purchase restrictions have lasted for more than nine months.
Also since April 1, Hui'an Fengheng Mixed and Tianhong Hengxin Mixed have resumed large-scale subscriptions. Since April 2, Invesco Great Wall's Value Marginal Flexible Allocation Hybrid has resumed accepting subscriptions of more than 200,000 yuan. The fund is managed by the well-known fund manager Bao Wuke, and has risen by more than 12% since the beginning of this year, and the annual return last year was close to 16%, ranking among the top of similar products. From May 5, 2023, Invesco Great Wall Value Margin Flexible Allocation will open a single-day purchase limit of 2 million yuan.
In addition, according to the latest announcement of the fund company, China Canada Xinyue Flexible Allocation Hybrid and Minsheng Jiayin Quantitative China Flexible Allocation Hybrid will resume the large-amount subscription business of the fund on April 3.
As for the reason for the lifting of purchase restrictions, the managers of the above-mentioned funds all stated in the announcement that it was for the purpose of meeting the financial needs of investors.
Some analysts believe that the release of purchase restrictions for many funds means that in the eyes of fund managers, the short-term market adjustment is nearing the end, representing the recognition of institutional investors for the investment value of the current market position.
In addition, foreign capital is also returning. As an important channel for foreign investors to buy A-shares, the net inflow of northbound funds into A-shares far exceeded that of last year.
As of April 2, since 2024, the net inflow of northbound funds into A-shares has been 66.605 billion yuan, compared with 43.7 billion yuan in the whole of last year.
As of the end of March, Northbound Capital has increased its holdings of 35 stocks for 6 consecutive months. According to the data, the net inflow of northbound funds in March was 21.985 billion yuan, of which the textile and apparel and banking industries had the highest increase in the number of shares held by northbound funds.
In terms of individual stocks, 19 stocks, including LEEDARSON, Zhongfu Industrial, and SMIC, have been increased and doubled by northbound funds for 6 consecutive months, while the public utilities industry has also been increased by northbound funds for 6 consecutive months.
China's core assets have once again become a popular trading object for northbound funds. In terms of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, in March, 17 shares of Zijin Mining, Yangtze River Power, China Duty Free and Ping An of China were net bought by northbound funds, with a net purchase amount of more than 2 billion yuan by Zijin Mining, and in terms of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, 14 shares including CATL, Wuliangye, Midea Group and North Huachuang were net bought by northbound funds, and CATL net bought more than 5.8 billion yuan.
Fund issuance picked up
Another positive sign in the market is the recovery of fund issuance.
First of all, the number and share of public funds issued in March increased sharply month-on-month. According to the data of the public offering network, as of March 31, according to the statistics of the establishment time of the fund, a total of 292 new funds were issued in the first quarter, with a total of 243.398 billion shares and an average of 834 million shares.
On a month-by-month basis, the A-share market has rebounded sharply since February, driving investors' enthusiasm for buying funds. According to the data of the public offering network, a total of 137 funds were issued in March, an increase of 128.33% month-on-month, accounting for 46.92% of the total issuance in the first quarter, and a total of 150.763 billion shares were issued, an increase of 317.66% month-on-month, accounting for 61.94% of the total shares issued in the first quarter.
During the year, the issuance of equity funds continued to pick up. According to the data of the public offering network, from January to March, the proportion of equity fund issuance increased month by month, and the latest proportion reached 16.37% in March, an increase of 8.14% from January.
In February alone, although the number of equity funds issued and the number of shares issued hit a new low in a single month this year, the proportion of their issued shares also increased compared with January, indicating that the number and share of equity funds issued in February were small, mainly due to the impact of the overall issuance of the fund industry, and the enthusiasm of investors to invest in equity funds continued to rise.
Second, the filing of private securities products has picked up. According to the statistics of the private placement network, as of March 31, a total of 1,625 private securities products were filed in the first quarter, of which 529 private securities products were filed in March, an increase of 19.41% month-on-month compared with 443 in February, which means that the filing of private securities products has picked up.
The private placement products are mainly stocks. According to the data of the private placement network, among the 1,625 private securities products filed in the first quarter, 1,058 were equity strategy products, accounting for 65.11%. Multi-asset strategies and futures and derivatives strategies with low correlation with equity strategies were also sought after, with 210 multi-asset strategy products and 179 futures and derivatives strategy products filed in the first quarter, accounting for 12.92% and 11.02% respectively. It is worth mentioning that the bond strategy that has led the income this year is not welcomed, with 47 bond strategy products filed in the first quarter, accounting for 2.89%, ranking at the bottom of the five major strategies.
(This article is from Yicai)