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Market Overview
The S&P Nasdaq closed up more than 1%, the biggest gain in more than three weeks, and still fell all week, while the Dow fell more than 2% in a week, the worst weekly decline in a year. The "Seven Sisters" of technology only Tesla fell, once falling more than 6%, Nvidia closed up more than 2%, Meta rose more than 3%, a record high, and rose nearly 9% in a week. AMD rose nearly 3%, while Intel fell more than 2%. The pan-European stock index fell back to a more than two-week low, falling more than 1% for the week, the biggest drop in more than two months.
The U.S. employment report strongly dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose by 10 basis points to a four-month high; the U.S. dollar index refreshed its daily high, out of a two-week low; the offshore yuan fell by more than 100 points at a new high of 7.24 at a time of more than a week; gold turned down in the short term, after rising nearly 2%, hitting a record intraday high for six consecutive days.
Crude oil hit a five-month high on the fifth day, up nearly 5% in a week. Gold rose nearly 5% for the week, the largest weekly gain in nearly half a year. London copper temporarily left the high level of the past two years, but it rose by more than 5% for the week, and London zinc rose by more than 8% for a week. Bitcoin refreshed its daily low of $66,000, down nearly $3,000 from its daily high.
In the Asian market, during the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index still rose for the whole week after three consecutive declines, and NIO fell more than 2%. The U.S. stock plunge overnight dragged down Asia-Pacific stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down 2% and Hong Kong stocks closing slightly lower in a V-shaped trend.
News
Li Qiang meets with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. He Lifeng held talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.
China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.25 trillion month-on-month at the end of March, marking the "17th consecutive increase" in gold reserves, but this is the smallest increase in the central bank's gold reserves in 17 months.
The global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3% in March, returning to expansion territory.
In 2024, there will be 119 million domestic tourism trips during the Qingming Festival holiday, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Promised its citizens that it would respond to Israeli attacks.
Big changes in U.S. stocks: ExxonMobil "rises", energy gains outpace technology.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 1.11%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.24%.
European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed down 0.84%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 1.30%. France's CAC 40 index closed down 1.11%. Britain's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.81%.
A-shares: A-shares are closed.
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury rose 8.02 basis points to 4.3895%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note rose 9.47 basis points to 4.7421%.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for May delivery closed up $0.32, or 0.37%, at $86.91 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed up $0.52, or 0.57%, at $91.17 a barrel. COMEX gold futures for June delivery closed up 1.60% at $2,345.40 an ounce, hitting another all-time closing high. COMEX silver futures for May delivery closed up 0.94% at $27.503 an ounce. LME copper futures closed down $30 at $9,330 a tonne.
Highlights
Domestic macro
Li Qiang meets with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Li Qiang said that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, the current Sino-US relations have stabilized. President Xi Jinping had a recent phone call with President Biden, and the two sides agreed to strengthen dialogue, manage differences, advance cooperation, and promote the steady development of China-US relations. China hopes that China and the United States will be partners rather than adversaries, and that they will respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperation.
He Lifeng held talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen. The Chinese side expressed grave concern over the US economic and trade restrictions on China, and fully responded to the issue of production capacity.
China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.25 trillion month-on-month at the end of March, marking the "17th consecutive increase" in gold reserves, but this is the smallest increase in the central bank's gold reserves in 17 months.
- On April 7, the Bank of China released its latest gold reserves, which stood at 72.74 million ounces as of the end of March 2024, an increase of 160,000 ounces from 72.58 million ounces at the end of the previous month. In 2023, China is the country with the largest increase in gold reserves. Gold is still strong as the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations. "The Greenspan Mystery of Gold" compares and analyzes the current gold price from the price of U.S. bonds before the subprime mortgage explosion.
The global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3% in March, returning to expansion territory.
- The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index for March on the 6th. According to the analysis, the global PMI affects A-shares through two paths: path 1: the supply and demand pattern of some globally priced industrial products improves. Path 2: Demand recovery in China's export chain manufacturing sector.
The People's Bank of China has set up a re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, with a quota of 500 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.75%.
In 2024, there will be 119 million domestic tourism trips during the Qingming Festival holiday, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019. During the Qingming holiday, the number of cross-regional people in the whole society exceeded 740 million, an increase of about 19% over the same period in 2019.
Domestic companies
The official response of the National Supercomputer Internet is that "you can rent an Nvidia A800 computing power card when you are 2 yuan/card": this is indeed the case. The relevant person in charge said that as of April 18, the rental price of a single A800 card is indeed 2 yuan / hour, but there is a certain limit on the number of cards that a single person can apply for.
EHang EH216-S obtained the production license, becoming the world's first eVTOL aircraft with three full certificates.
Overseas macro
Big changes in U.S. stocks: ExxonMobil "rises", energy gains outpace technology. Oil stocks offer a new way to bet on economic growth, and even if geopolitics end the growth narrative, they can provide some protection for investors.
- Guosheng Securities Duhui pointed out that the increase in the attention of cyclical stocks is because profits remain high, no capital expenditure, dividend repurchases have increased significantly, and the central logic of valuation revaluation is that we have entered a mature period of industrialization.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Promised its citizens that it would respond to Israeli attacks. Make Israel "regret" its actions. The US side is also responsible for the attack.
According to CCTV News, citing a number of Israeli media reports on the 7th, the Israeli army withdrew almost all ground troops from southern Gaza, leaving only one brigade at present.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls surged by 303,000 in March, the largest increase in nearly a year, while the unemployment rate slipped to 3.8% and average hourly earnings fell to 4.1% year-on-year. Swap markets have pushed back expectations for the Fed's first rate cut from July to September.
Senior Fed official "more hawkish": Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains high, further interest rate hikes may be needed.
Overseas companies
Analysis: Robotaxi may not be able to support Tesla's next phase of growth
- Media reported on Friday that Tesla has abandoned plans to produce the Model 2, a low-cost model, in favor of focusing on self-driving robo-taxi technology. Musk accused the media of "lying", but did not point to any specific mistakes. Later, Musk said that Tesla's Robotaxi would be unveiled on August 8, which caused Tesla to rise nearly 4% in after-hours trading on the same day.
- According to some analysts, this seems to imply that Tesla may have shifted its focus to Robotaxi, which confirms the media's previous reports that Tesla has abandoned the development of cheap cars. Tesla's current focus on developing Robotaxi is likely to be due to the breakthrough of FSD. However, with numerous regulatory hurdles, high costs, and the fact that FSD is not yet mature, Robotaxi may not be able to support Tesla's next phase of growth.
Novo Nordisk: "Miracle drug for weight loss" Semei can alleviate the symptoms of diabetic heart failure. Further supports the potential of Wegovy for the treatment of obesity-related diseases.
Altman and Jony Ive, the "father of the iPhone," are raising money for their AI device company. The company is currently in talks with OpenAI's big investor Thrive Capital and the Emerson Collective, led by Steve Jobs' widow, and SoftBank Masayoshi Son is also one of the fundraisers.
The memory cycle is coming, Samsung has entered a "golden period", and its profits have "increased tenfold". Samsung forecasts operating profit of 6.6 trillion won in the first quarter of this year, up 931% year-on-year. Analysts believe that this optimistic forecast is mainly due to the rebound in memory chip prices.
Industry/Concept
1. Flow battery According to China Energy Network, recently, the relevant research group of the Institute of Metal Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has made new progress in the research field of new low-cost iron-based flow battery energy storage technology. On the basis of the previous research work on all-iron flow batteries, the researchers successfully realized the uniform deposition and dissolution of iron elements on the surface of the electrode fibers during the charging and discharging process by taking the reversibility of the redox reaction of the iron anode as the starting point, and further realized the non-solidification of the electrolyte and the stable operation of the battery at a low temperature of -20°C by weakening the hydration hydrogen bond network, effectively breaking through the technical bottleneck of the anode materials of the all-iron flow battery at this stage.
Comments: The research and development of new systems and technologies for low-cost flow batteries is an effective way to break through the bottleneck of the industrialization of flow batteries at this stage. Among the many new energy storage technology routes, the flow battery energy storage technology represented by the all-vanadium flow battery has become the preferred electrochemical energy storage technology route in the long-term energy storage technology because of its intrinsic safety and flexible deployment. In the future, with the increase in clean energy consumption, flow batteries will be widely used in renewable energy storage and distribution systems. As one of the world's largest energy storage markets, China's flow battery market is also expanding and is expected to achieve rapid growth.
2. Electric bicycles| The Consumer Goods Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently researched and drafted the "Standard Conditions for the Electric Bicycle Industry" and the "Administrative Measures for the Standard Announcement of the Electric Bicycle Industry", and solicited opinions from the public. The "Standard Conditions for the Electric Bicycle Industry (Draft for Comments)" mentions that enterprises are encouraged to vigorously promote intelligent manufacturing, improve the level of modern management, safety production guarantee capacity and resource allocation efficiency, and promote the digital upgrading of product research and development, production and operation, marketing management, after-sales service and other links. Encourage enterprises to code and identify the electric bicycle batteries produced or purchased, and promote the traceability management of battery information. Encourage enterprises to participate in the formulation and revision of standards related to green manufacturing in the electric bicycle industry, build green factories, produce green design products, and create a green supply chain.
Comments: According to the statistics of the global electric vehicle network, the number of electric vehicles in mainland China exceeds 350 million. According to incomplete statistics, about 35 million over-standard electric vehicles are facing delisting. The agency research report pointed out that 2022-2025 is the end node of the transition to the new national standard in a large number of cities in China, and it is expected that the industry sales of electric two-wheelers (including electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, etc.) will increase to more than 45 million units in 2022-2025;
3. Copper| During the Qingming Festival holiday, international non-ferrous metal futures prices rose. As of the close of trading on April 5, LME copper, aluminum, zinc and lead rose by 2.96%, 3%, 4.92% and 5.32% respectively, and the international copper price hit a new high since January last year, and the aluminum price also reached a new high since April last year. According to the latest data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.3% in March, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the trend of running below 50% for 17 consecutive months and returning to the expansion range. Experts said that the new orders index and production index in the purchasing managers' index, as well as foreign trade orders, have risen more, reflecting that the aggregate demand of the world economy has begun to pick up.
Comments: Galaxy Securities believes that under the economic recovery, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the non-ferrous metals industry has increased, and the demand for non-ferrous metals has recovered marginally. On the supply side, under the shortage of copper mines, catalytic factors such as the expected reduction of copper smelters and the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan may be less than expected have appeared one after another, non-ferrous metal prices have risen strongly, and the prosperity of the non-ferrous metal industry has risen significantly.
4. Solid-state battery On April 4, Tailan New Energy announced that it had made a major breakthrough in the field of solid-state battery technology, and successfully developed the world's first automotive-grade solid-state lithium metal battery with a single capacity of 120Ah and a measured energy density of up to 720Wh/kg. In addition, Zhiji Automobile will release a new model Zhizhi L6 on April 8, the highlight of this model is that it is equipped with Qingtao Energy semi-solid-state battery technology, and the density of the positive and negative electrode materials is far higher than that of traditional liquid batteries, which greatly reduces the liquid content of the battery.
Comments: According to the Shanghai Securities News, Qingtao Energy's second-generation solid-state battery is expected to be developed next year, which will further improve the density of the battery system. The eventual third generation, all-solid-state batteries, aims to gradually improve battery performance and safety. Industry insiders expect that by 2030, the commercial production capacity of global lithium-ion solid-state/semi-solid-state batteries is expected to begin to scale. At that time, the corresponding mileage of solid-state lithium batteries may reach 2-3 times that of liquid lithium batteries, equaling the endurance of fuel vehicles.
5. Driverless taxi| On April 7, GAC Aion and Didi Autonomous Driving announced that their joint venture, Guangzhou Andi Technology Co., Ltd., has been approved for industrial and commercial licenses. The two giants have joined forces and plan to spend 420 million yuan to target the Robotaxi (driverless taxi) field, and make efforts to open up the L4 large-scale commercial closed loop on the B-side. It is reported that the first model has completed the product definition, and the design and styling are being jointly reviewed, and mass production is planned to be achieved in 2025.
Comment: Musk also said that Tesla plans to launch a self-driving taxi on August 8. Tesla's Robotaxi technology consists of Autopilot, FSD, and high-performance computing platforms, which are expected to achieve fully autonomous driving, efficient operation, and personalized customization. China Securities believes that the implementation of Robotaxi has served as a vanguard in the popularization of intelligent driving at the level of regulations and user cognition, and is expected to boost the development of the intelligent driving industry chain.
6. Flying car| According to Zhongguancun Online, on April 7, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) issued a production license for EHang's EH216-S unmanned manned aircraft system in Guangzhou today, marking the birth of the world's first three-certificate eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft.
Comments: Aircraft from production to commercial operation requires three types of certificates, namely type certificate (TC), airworthiness certificate (AC), production license (PC), last year EH216-S has obtained type certificate and standard airworthiness certificate. The issuance of this production license means that the EH216-S has become the world's first manned unmanned eVTOL model to obtain the "three major passes" for airworthiness, and has the qualification for mass production, laying the foundation for full-scale commercial operation. The low-altitude economy was first included in the government work report at the two sessions this year, and it was characterized as an emerging industry and a future industry. On March 27, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments made it clear that by 2030, the general aviation equipment will form a trillion market size, and make a clear plan for the development of the low-altitude economic industry. Analysts believe that under the premise of guaranteed product strength, the low-altitude economy will develop rapidly in the domestic market, and China will achieve corner overtaking in the field of general aviation.
Today's news preview
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on "firmly grasping the primary task of high-quality development and striving to promote the practice of Chinese-style modernization in Fujian".
U.S. New York Fed inflation expectations for March.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued the first eVTOL-specific airworthiness conditions into effect.
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