As the second decade of the 21st century draws to a close, the dynamics of the global economy and technology are becoming increasingly prominent, and one of the most striking trends is undoubtedly the rapid rise of China, an emerging power. As a leading figure in the technology and business world, Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, recently spoke out again, emphasizing the importance of China as a "next-level power", and boldly predicting that after 2035, the world will present a three-legged situation of China, the United States and other countries!
Musk's perception of China's power is not a whim. In recent years, he has repeatedly publicly expressed his deep recognition of the growth potential of China's economic scale, predicting that China's future economic output will be two or three times that of the United States. This forecast is not groundless, but is based on China's sustained and stable economic growth, huge market size, increasing scientific and technological innovation capabilities, and deep participation in the global industrial chain.
China's economy has made an impressive leap forward over the past few decades, from being the world's 11th largest economy in the early days of reform and opening up to the world's second-largest today. Especially in 2022 and beyond, despite the impact of the global pandemic and geopolitical tensions, China has maintained a steady growth momentum with its strong policy regulation and control capabilities, efficient industrial system and resilience of the domestic demand market. Musk's reference to China's electric vehicle market is a striking example, with China not only becoming the world's largest new energy vehicle market, but also emerging a number of competitive local brands, posing a strong challenge to international giants such as Tesla.
China's rise in the tech sector should not be overlooked. From 5G communications, artificial intelligence, quantum computing to aerospace, China has made a series of major breakthroughs in many cutting-edge science and technology fields, showing its strength to catch up with and surpass advanced Western countries. Musk has paid attention to China's progress in the research and development of nuclear space engines, and the successful development of this new power system is expected to significantly shorten the flight time of Mars exploration, marking that China is on a par with the United States in deep space exploration technology. In addition, China's investments and achievements in basic scientific research, high-end manufacturing, and digital transformation are gradually reshaping the global technology landscape.
Musk's division of the world into only three levels after 2035 is actually a prediction of the growing global influence of China and the United States and the relative weakness of other countries. This dual-power pattern includes not only the direct competition between the two countries at the economic, technological, and military levels, but also the in-depth interaction between soft power, international rule-making, and global governance.
The competition between China and the United States is mainly reflected in many fields such as trade, technology, and geopolitics. In terms of trade, although the two sides have experienced ups and downs, they are important trading partners of each other and are highly dependent on each other. Technology competition is becoming more and more intense, especially in key core technologies, data security, intellectual property protection, etc., both China and the United States have their own concerns and strategic considerations. At the geopolitical level, the two countries have differences on issues such as the Asia-Pacific region, cybersecurity, and human rights, but there is also room for cooperation on global issues such as climate change, public health, and counterterrorism.
At the same time, cooperation between China and the United States is also crucial. In the context of global economic integration, it is in the interests of both sides to jointly maintain the stability and development of the world economy with deep economic integration and intertwined supply chains. When it comes to addressing global challenges such as climate change and nuclear non-proliferation, cooperation between China and the United States is indispensable. Musk's own companies, such as Tesla, have set up production bases in China, enjoying huge dividends in the Chinese market, while also promoting the development of China's new energy vehicle industry, demonstrating a win-win example of Sino-US economic cooperation.
In Musk's forecast, "other" countries cover all countries and regions except China and the United States. Under the pattern of coexistence of the two powers, these countries will face more complex strategic choices, not only to adapt to the world order dominated by China and the United States, but also to seek their own development space and international discourse. Some countries with regional influence or advantages in specific areas, such as the European Union, Japan, India, Russia, and Brazil, are likely to play a more active role in the multipolar world, enhancing their status by deepening regional cooperation, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, and promoting reform of international rules.
At the same time, small and medium-sized countries and developing countries are likely to pay more attention to building diversified diplomatic relations, avoid over-reliance on a single major country, and strive to make their voices heard in international affairs by strengthening South-South cooperation and actively participating in global governance mechanisms. In addition, the role of non-state actors, such as transnational corporations, non-governmental organizations and international organizations, will be further highlighted, and they will play an irreplaceable role in advancing the global agenda, providing public goods, and promoting international cooperation.
Musk's prophecy reveals an increasingly obvious reality: China's accelerating rise as a global power, shaping the future world order with the United States. In this process, the competition and cooperation between the two countries will have a profound impact on the global political and economic landscape, while the "other" countries need to find their own position in the new distribution of power, actively respond to the challenges and seize the development opportunities.
In the face of this prospect, all countries should strive to promote the building of a more just and equitable international governance system, advocate multilateralism, uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core, and strengthen coordination and cooperation on global issues. At the same time, countries should encourage scientific and technological innovation, enhance economic resilience, and deepen regional economic integration to cope with the pressure of economic and technological competition under the dual-power pattern of China and the United States.
For enterprises, multinational companies such as Tesla should flexibly adjust their global strategies, not only to make full use of the huge market and innovation environment of China and the United States, but also to pay attention to the potential and opportunities of "other" countries, so as to achieve diversification and balance of global layout. The success of Musk and his companies in China is a lesson for global business leaders: respecting and integrating into the local market, and actively participating in the local innovation ecosystem, are the only way to be invincible in the global competition.
Musk's prediction about China's rise and the future of the world's tripolar pattern paints a picture of a future full of challenges and opportunities. In this era of rapid change, only by actively adapting to the new reality, deepening cooperation and being brave in innovation can all countries find their own place on the new global stage and jointly create a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable future world.