Photovoltaics in the circular economy, a dynamic framework for the analysis of technological evolution and the impact of reliability

Rapid, terawatt-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) modules is needed to decarbonize the energy sector. Despite improvements in efficiency and manufacturing, material requirements will increase, eventually leading to waste as deployed modules reach the end of their life. Circular selection of decommissioned modules can reduce waste and offset virgin materials. We propose PV ICE, an open-source python framework that uses modern reliability data to track the flow of module materials throughout the PV lifecycle. We provide dynamic baselines to capture the evolution of PV modules and materials. PV ICEs include multi-modal end-of-life, cycle paths, and manufacturing losses. We propose a framework for validation and sensitivity analysis. The results show that production efficiency has a significant impact on material demand, > account for 20% of the 9 million tonnes of waste in 2050. Reliability and circular paths are the best opportunity to reduce waste by 56% while maintaining installed capacity. Shorter-lived modules will generate 81% of waste and reduce capacity by 6% by 2050. Compiled by Chen Jiaoyun