The navies of the four countries arrived close to the joint military exercise in Nansha, and the US media exposed Biden's plan: there are major measures after the exercise, and it is expected to establish a normal activity mechanism in the South China Sea, and it is not ruled out that the US military will participate in the friction.
On April 7, the first joint military exercise led by the United States, with the participation of the Philippines and coordinated by Japan and Australia, opened in the waters dozens of kilometers southeast of the Spratly Islands.
Although the scale of this high-profile joint operation was somewhat reduced in the end, the PLA still paid great attention to it and responded with the posture of simultaneously organizing naval and air combat readiness patrols in the southern theater, which is likely to be an advance preparation for possible further measures by the United States.
According to Philippine media sources, the strength of the joint exercise is only one cruiser of the US Navy and two warships sent by Japan and the Philippines, and Australia has even less presence and only one anti-submarine aircraft, which cannot help but make people feel very disappointed.
Before the military exercise, various US media reported and hyped it up with intensity, and in late March, the Philippines also warmed up in advance, sending warships to forcibly enter the Nansha islands and reefs on many occasions, during which there were many contacts with the Chinese coast guard and frictions, and many people were injured.
However, according to some foreign media sources, the Biden administration seems to be planning further actions, the Associated Press said that later Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos will go to Washington to attend the trilateral summit meeting between the United States, Japan and the Philippines to discuss further normalized action mechanisms in the South China Sea.
The Philippine defense secretary told the media that the four countries participating in the military exercise hope to establish a mechanism for regular activities in the South China Sea in order to better protect the freedom of navigation and overflight of all countries in the South China Sea.
In the past, although the Philippine side has repeatedly created disputes by intruding into the waters around China's islands and reefs at the request of the United States, the US government does not dare to directly participate in such actions, the only exception is the military standoff around the South China Sea arbitration case in 2016, when two US aircraft carrier battle groups gathered around the Philippines to pressure China, but we know that the US military pressure completely failed and triggered a series of chain reactions in the South China Sea, greatly weakening the influence of the United States。
But in the past year or two, as the Biden administration's tendency to commit to a permanent solution to the Chinese threat during its term has become more apparent in its China policy, it is actively seeking an opportunity to intervene directly in the dispute.
The South China Sea is one of the main conflict directions around China, where China's military projection capability is relatively weak, and many high-ranking US military officials are interested in this, but the United States really lacks the legal basis to intervene in disputes in the South China Sea, so it needs the cooperation of the Philippines.
The Associated Press commented that "the sovereignty dispute between the Philippines and China is turning the South China Sea into a powder keg that could break out at any time, and a conflict between China and the Philippines could trigger a direct military conflict between the United States and China."
Judging from the various actions of the Biden administration, they may very much want to see such a thing happen, in March in the two South China Sea friction incidents between China and the Philippines, the Philippine ship ignored the repeated warnings of the Chinese coast guard and tried to enter Ren'ai Jiao strongly, and finally the Chinese coast guard had to use water cannons to return fire and paralyze the Philippine ship, according to the Philippine media, which led to the damage to the ship involved and many injuries, and at this time the US Department of Defense took the opportunity to state that if there are casualties among the Philippine military and civilians, the Philippine side can consider quoting the " U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Agreement.
Of course, the US side has made a relatively low-key statement this time, and has not said that it wants to use the defense agreement, and the US media has also dealt with this in a low-key manner, but it is not difficult for us to imagine that the US side, as the party that is eager to deliver its military strength, must be eager to see the Philippines suffer human losses in the South China Sea friction incident, which will be an excellent excuse for them to take risky actions!
The U.S. media said that "the United States has the obligation to send troops to protect the Philippines when it is attacked by any kind of military attack", although the current contradictions are still at the level of border friction, but as the military preparations during Biden's term become more and more adequate, China will have to consider responding to the U.S. military adventure in the South China Sea.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell told the media that the April 11 trilateral summit will be an opportunity to promote unprecedented security cooperation, and the joint action mechanism of the United States, Japan and the Philippines will not even be limited to the South China Sea.
The US media believe that what Campbell said is likely to refer to US military preparations in the Taiwan Strait, and Biden hopes to be more deeply involved in the US military layout in the Philippines, rather than just using US military backing to make profits in the South China Sea; if the conflict is not limited to the South China Sea, or if it occurs in the Taiwan Strait, and the Philippines is not directly involved in the conflict, will they still be willing to play the role of a military ally at that time? In the eyes of the US military leadership, the Philippines is located in an important strategic position, and it is the first time for the US military to go out of the South China Sea. An important outpost of operations in the Taiwan Strait is an indispensable fulcrum for US military operations.
The Biden administration's regional military cooperation around China will expand more cooperation models, involving allies and friendly countries in the region more deeply, and transition from the original bilateral alliance to a "multilateral framework", with the ultimate goal of working to rebuild the Asia-Pacific version of NATO against China in East Asia. It's just that this requires a process, and if the conflict occurs in the next few years, then the United States can still rely on its own strength, and the allies in this region can provide a battlefield, and the situation in which the United States needs to solve problems on its own at the military level is still difficult to change.
On the other hand, the U.S. military pressure cannot scare China, so why does the Southern Theater still respond at a high level when the U.S. has already scaled down the scale of its military exercises? The simple meaning is that if the Biden administration takes further action, China will also take corresponding actions, and it is to use military means to convey China's determination to never compromise on the sovereignty issue in the South China Sea, even if this may become the fuse that triggers a conflict between the two countries.