The first quarter has passed, how is this year's real estate? Some people say that this year's property market is really magical.
In fact, the property market is there, such a large market, there is no reason to change its face in a few days, so what is the truth? In 2024, real estate will run out of two new trends.
Recently, many people in the property market say that they can't understand it, and they don't even believe the data of the Statistics Bureau, so what else can you believe?
Some people say, the recent property market is too magical, let's hurry up to see, it turns out that it does mean this.
Where is the magic? Let's list some facts and figures, let's take a look, what's going on?
In March, 5,196 sets of second-hand houses were signed online, an increase of 116% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year, a new high in three years.
In March, 14,280 sets of second-hand houses were signed online, which was the highest point in the past year and higher than the 12,000 sets of prosperity and withering line.
In March, more than 20,000 second-hand houses were traded in Shanghai, which was also higher than the boom and bust line of 15,000 units, which was the highest point in the last eight or nine months.
If you're going to say it's all second-hand housing, then let's take a look at the new housing market.
On March 28, Shanghai Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli sold 19.7 billion yuan, setting a new historical record for the opening sales of the real estate industry, and the previous record was created by Shenzhen China Resources City Runxi in 2020, with sales of 19.6 billion yuan in two days.
On March 30th and 31st, Beijing's newly opened Zhonghai Huanyu Future opened and sold 3 billion, Huanyu Tianjing sold 2 billion, Yongding Jiuli 800 million, and AD Li sold 1.2 billion.
A week earlier, Jingxirun Mansion opened for 1.005 billion yuan, and the Summer Palace Mansion opened on March 16 for 700 million.
If you want to say that this is just a few cities, then let's take a look at the local auctions.
On March 27, three land kings appeared in Suzhou, Xiamen and Ningbo one after another, which were won by Greentown for 3.08 billion, Ningbo local developers for 2.2 billion, and Xiamen International Trade for 3.2 billion.
Among them, the transaction floor price of the Xiamen plot exceeded 62,600 yuan per square meter, which was quite crazy even during the peak period of real estate in previous years.
We think of it again on March 28, when Xiaomi Auto was released, 50,000 units were set in 27 minutes and more than 80,000 units in 24 hours.
This robbing a house and a car is like not wanting money, and the Chinese suddenly become rich? Or has the direction of real estate and consumption suddenly changed?
Don't be fooled by the data, others will single out the data for you to see, but they won't tell you the logic behind it.
Xiaomi car is not much overdraft consumption today, and the purchasing power of a few crazy rice noodles is overdrawn at one time, and they are guinea pigs, but this is a matter of willingness to fight, and we can't say anything.
In fact, the real estate matter was very clear last year, and this year's wave still has not departed from the general logic of today's property market.
What is the general logic of the property market? It is deeply differentiated, which means that not all places will be good, and not all places will be bad.
In the future, China's best 20-30 cities will evolve into world-class cities, and these cities will become the best in all aspects, such as urban construction, transportation, population, industry, economy, etc.
So, next, real estate is a process of deep differentiation and natural evolution.
The underlying logic of this deep differentiation and natural evolution is the core asset.
Some people see this future trend and start to grab the core assets of big cities, whether they are new or second-hand homes.
Of course, in the past two years, the main line of real estate is to speed up inventory clearance.
Therefore, this is the focus of policy guidance, constantly stimulating new demand, allowing people who really need houses to take over, and making the real estate market as a whole tend to be healthy and normal.
Therefore, the first thing that is on fire is the second-hand housing in the core area of the first-tier cities.
At the same time, as first-tier cities have gradually relaxed purchase restrictions, some people have also begun to grab new houses in core areas.
Therefore, you will find that the hot ones are all high-end properties in first-tier cities, and no one buys new houses in your fifth-tier cities.
Therefore, don't be confused by the transaction data of individual real estate projects in individual cities, those are not the data of your community, they are all very distant things.
Second-hand housing in first-tier cities, and then adding high-end new homes in the core areas of a few cities, plus second-hand houses in less than 10 cities at most, these are the two new trends in real estate in 2024.
The main tone of real estate in 2024 is still healthy and stable, the inventory continues to be cleared, and big ups and downs are risks.
Therefore, the property market is still the same property market, and the trend is still that trend.