According to data analysis, on April 7, the average price of lean pigs was 15.14 yuan / kg, up 0.15 yuan from yesterday, the pig price rose back, the rise was quite "unstoppable", the domestic north and south markets showed a trend of "rising together", and the pig price was "red", then, the pig price rebound, can the rise continue, will it be short-lived? Here comes the specific analysis!
Judging from market feedback, on April 7, the average price of live pigs in the country was similar to 15.1 yuan/kg in Chongqing, and the 28 provinces and regions in the domestic key monitoring were quoted at 14.4~15.9 yuan/kg. In Heijiliao area, the price of slaughtering enterprises is 14.85~15.05 yuan, Shanxi and Hebei are quoted at 15.3 yuan, and the price of Shaanxi and Gansu is 14.8~15.25 yuan. In Sichuan and Chongqing, pig prices rose to 15.05 ~ 15.1 yuan, Shandong and Anhui prices were 15.5 ~ 15.6 yuan, Zhejiang prices rose by 15.8 yuan, Henan prices were 15.4 yuan, and in the two Guangxi regions, slaughtering enterprises were quoted at 14.95 ~ 15.9 yuan / kg!
From the zoning point of view, on April 7, pig prices in the north and south showed a trend of rising across the board, pig prices increased significantly, mainstream areas, slaughtering enterprises rose 0.1~0.3 yuan/kg, and the logic of supporting the rise in pig prices is as follows:
From the grassroots feedback, due to the high vacancy rate of pig farms in the north, the phenomenon of supplemental pig breeding in the stage market, in particular, the temperature is gradually rising, the cost of fattening and heating in the north is reduced, the risk of disease in pig farms is weakened, and the desire to fill the column in the market is improved.
Second, the breeding end shrinks the price and raises the price. Affected by the pig production capacity and the previous pig farm disease factors, the pressure of slaughter at the stage of breeding is weak, and the market price mentality is strong, especially the increase in the second breeding in the north, and the mentality of waiting for the price and selling at the breeding end is strong.
Therefore, due to the phased market shrinkage and the increase in the phenomenon of secondary breeding, the phenomenon of "lack of pigs" in the market is highlighted, and there is pressure on slaughtering enterprises to purchase pigs smoothly. Superimposed, during the Qingming holiday, the downstream orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for purchasing live pigs heated up.
As for the prospect of pig prices, with the end of the holiday effect, the terminal pork purchase and sale may gradually be deserted, the difficulty of the downstream market white strip goods or will increase, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises will also increase, and the rise in pig prices may be difficult to sustain, in particular, this month's group pig enterprises have more monthly slaughter plans, and for the second breeding sentiment, with the rise in pig prices, the confidence in entering the market may weaken, after all, the price of fat pigs in the stage has gradually narrowed, and the price of fat pigs still has the risk of further decline! From a rational point of view, the rise in pig prices may be difficult to sustain, and the market is still under weak pressure after the holiday!