[Text/Observer Network Columnist Shen Yi]
Yellen's visit on Qingming Day, and Blinken's follow-up visit undoubtedly mean that after the San Francisco summit, the relationship between China and the United States will be further deepened.
Against this background, before the meeting of senior officials of the two sides, the phone call between the heads of state steered the direction of Sino-US relations, which is naturally the proper meaning of the topic. Compared with the previous heads of state calls after Biden entered the White House in 2021, the amount of information on the first call on April 2, 2024 is worth paying close attention to.
This phone call means that we are moving towards a new stage of candidly facing the two-sided nature of Sino-US relations. In the transcript of the phone call between the Chinese and American presidents, it was stated at the beginning, "Last November, Mr. President and I met in San Francisco, and we launched the 'San Francisco Vision' for the future. In the past few months, the teams of the two sides have earnestly implemented the consensus we reached, and China-US relations have stabilized, which has been welcomed by all walks of life in the two countries and the international community. On the other hand, the negative factors in the relations between the two countries have also increased, and both sides need to pay attention to them. ”
The frank pointing out of the "positive changes" and "negative factors" in Sino-US relations here is a remarkable new change. According to existing public reports, the expression of "negative factors" appears for the first time in China's public discourse, showing that Chinese policymakers have a more comprehensive understanding and grasp of the "duality" of China-US relations, that is, the existence of positive factors that help promote cooperation and stability in different issue areas in the same time and space environment, as well as negative factors that affect or even undermine the healthy development of bilateral relations.
In other words, the Biden administration's various performances from 2021 to 2024 have objectively eliminated the optimistic expectations that China once had, and began to strategically view and understand the current characteristics of China-US relations with a more pragmatic and realistic attitude and cognitive framework.
The first appearance of the term "first button" in China-US relations shows that China's analytical framework for understanding China-US relations has taken on a stronger systemic and strategic character.
"The issue of strategic cognition has always been the 'first button' that must be buttoned up in China-US relations. China and the United States, two major countries, should respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperation, and continue to move forward along the path of stability, health and sustainability, rather than going back. ”
The term "strategic cognition," which has a distinctly constructivist character, and the term "first button," which was previously used for domestic political issues, are both appearing for the first time in a systematic formulation of U.S.-China relations. It has replaced the traditional discourse of "Cold War mentality" and "zero-sum game", showing that China has initially completed the overall framework of recognizing and understanding the U.S. strategy toward China in the new era.
The U.S. identity, strategic planning, policy formulation, and specific actions toward China are attributed to the U.S. "strategic perception" of China, and euphemistically but clearly point out that the U.S. may have systematically misjudged China from the very beginning and constructed a wrong China strategy based on the wrong strategic perception. What to do "can't", what "should" do, what kind of path to take, "move forward", and "no turning back" expounded in plain language China's top leader's clear understanding and clear positioning of China-US strategic relations, and conveyed a clear strategic message to the US side.
China's perception of China-US relations has begun to move towards a new stage
In addition, the call used the "Three Principles" to clearly define the guardrails that China has set up for the U.S.-China relationship.
"There are several major principles that should be adhered to in this year's Sino-US relations. First, we should value peace, adhere to the bottom line of non-conflict and non-confrontation, and constantly raise positive expectations for China-US relations. The second is to put stability first, not toss, not provoke, and not cross the line, so as to maintain the overall stability of China-US relations. The third is to be faith-based, to fulfill their commitments with actions, and to turn the 'San Francisco Vision' into a 'real scene'. The two sides need to strengthen dialogue in a respectful manner, manage differences in a prudent manner, promote cooperation in a spirit of reciprocity, and strengthen international coordination in a responsible manner. ”
The current U.S. administration likes to use the "guardrails" discourse system in its China strategy, and after grasping the U.S. discourse, the Chinese side has given the guardrails set by China, that is, the "three principles" He pointed out that the US side has too many commitments, insufficient actions, insufficient implementation, insufficient respect, insufficient prudence, lack of reciprocity, and lack of responsibility on the issue of international coordination.
This is the embodiment of the responsibility and responsibility of a responsible major country in the turbulent and changing international system, the embodiment of China's traditional wisdom, and the embodiment of China's self-confidence, responsibility, pattern and mind as an emerging power. Of course, I hope that our American counterparts will be touched, but Washington's old oilmen may continue to be indifferent to this, and China needs to solve the problem with actions, especially effective struggle, to make Washington aware of this and push Washington to move forward in the right direction. The "two noes", i.e., "not letting things go unchecked" and "not sitting idly by" draw a red line for China and give a clear warning signal.
"The Taiwan issue is the first red line that cannot be crossed in Sino-US relations. We will not allow the separatist activities and external connivance and support of the "Taiwan independence" forces. It is hoped that the US side will put into action Mr. President's positive statement that he does not support "Taiwan independence." The United States has taken an endless stream of economic, trade, and technological repressive measures against China, and the list of sanctions against Chinese companies is getting longer and longer. It's not 'de-risking', it's creating risk. If the US is willing to carry out mutually beneficial cooperation and share the dividends of China's development, China's door will always be open, and if the US insists on suppressing China's high-tech development and depriving China of its legitimate right to development, we will not sit idly by. ”
Conniving at the separatist activities of "Taiwan independence" forces and creating risks to obstinate China's high-tech development are the two main directions in which the current US administration continues to touch China's bottom line and harm China's national interests.
The use of clearer language than in previous phone calls and the clear warning signal that the US side will attach great importance to it are in line with China's basic behavior pattern of "salute before soldiers", and also indicate the trend of China-US relations in the future: If the United States is willing to cooperate, China is naturally willing to cooperate; if the US side does not listen to persuasion, it will insist on going its own way, and China will also introduce corresponding measures.
During the call, the U.S. side expressed an generally positive attitude, "The U.S.-China relationship is the most far-reaching bilateral relationship in the world. The progress made in the U.S.-China relationship since the San Francisco meeting shows that the two sides can actively promote cooperation while managing differences responsibly. I reiterate that the US does not seek a "new Cold War", does not seek to change China's system, does not seek to oppose China through strengthening alliances, does not support "Taiwan independence", and has no intention of clashing with China. The United States pursues a one-China policy. China's development is beneficial to the world, and the United States does not seek to contain China's development or "decouple" from China. We are ready to arrange for Treasury Secretary Yellen and Secretary of State Blinken to visit China in the near future to strengthen dialogue and communication with China, avoid miscalculations, advance cooperation, promote the stable development of bilateral relations, and jointly address global challenges. ”
But hesitation and luck remain the main problems. The lack of substantive content, the more critical problem is the disconnect between actions and words, the disconnection between statements and policies, the disconnection between the words of the top leader and the formulation of strategies, the disconnect direction is approximately 180 degrees, and the words and deeds are inconsistent, which continues to consume China's trust and patience, and continues to negatively erode China-US relations.
There were signs of constructive interaction in the head of state call. "The two heads of state believe that the call was frank and constructive," the transcript of the dialogue said. The two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication, instructed the working teams of the two sides to implement the San Francisco Vision, promote consultation mechanisms in the fields of diplomacy, economy, finance and commerce, as well as communication between the two militaries, carry out dialogue and cooperation in the fields of counter-narcotics, artificial intelligence, and climate change, and take further measures to expand people-to-people exchanges between the two countries, and strengthen communication on international and regional issues." China welcomes the recent visits of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China. ”
This shows that the "San Francisco Vision" formed by the San Francisco Summit can still support practical cooperation between the two sides, and the relevant consultation and communication mechanisms and cooperation with China in functional areas are still in progress. The US side said that it would arrange a visit to China by senior officials, and the Chinese side openly welcomed it, which is rare in the phone call between the Chinese and US leaders, indicating that the two sides still have the willingness to move in the same direction, although this willingness is uneven: China hopes for substantive reciprocal cooperation, and the US side is still dominated by various domestic political calculations That is, hoping that China will cooperate with the United States in a way that maximizes its interests while being bullied and suppressed by the United States, which shows a very typical example of U.S.-centrism and double standards, which is the biggest obstacle to the achievement of substantive results in China-US dialogue and the return of China-US relations to the track of sound development.
On issues related to Hong Kong, human rights, the South China Sea, the Ukraine crisis, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the two sides have significant differences, and China's attitude is more frank than that of the United States.
The press release issued by the White House did not mention China's statement, and the content was significantly less than China's text, indicating that the US side still lacks the political courage and responsibility to face China-US relations in a frank manner, and at the same time continues to hope to continue to exert unilateral pressure on China in different ways to seek different results. Policy and action innovation, effective struggle, promote substantive correction, and return to the track of healthy development as soon as possible, but still require patience, resilience, courage, and wisdom to ultimately achieve the desired results.
The growth of China's own strength, the enhancement of its capabilities, and the innovation of its strategic and policy system will ultimately ensure that China-US relations continue to move forward in a constructive direction.
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