I happened to be free in the past two days, and I looked at the earnings of the first quarter.
Barely enough to about 20%, it actually beat 98.1% of investors.
Although there may be discrepancies in the statistics of each securities software, there will not be too many deviations.
This means that in the first quarter, the vast majority of retail investors did not make much money.
A friend told me that he earned 1.5% in the first quarter, beating 72% of investors.
This means that only about 30% of retail investors made money in the first quarter.
In the entire first quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33%, and the retail investors who could outperform the index were estimated to be just over 20%.
It's really hard for retail investors.
And that's not even the hardest.
The most difficult thing is that in the volatile market in March, there are very few retail investors who make money.
A yield of 5% in March can also beat 82% of retail investors.
This means that the number of retail investors who made money in March may only account for about 30%.
The Shanghai Composite Index for the whole of March was 0.86%, which was also a positive return.
Facts have proved that when the index is in shock, the vast majority of retail investors are losing money.
In essence, this also makes sense.
Because the index is standing still, the main funds want to make money, so retail investors are destined to lose money from the perspective of big data.
Thirty percent of retail investors make money, seventy percent of retail investors lose money, and the difference between them is forty percent, which is actually losing money to the main force.
Therefore, every fluctuation is a harm to retail investors.
The 3,000 points each time are no longer the original 3,000 points, but a sickle for cutting leeks.
Why most retail investors don't make money in the index market is essentially the main force to pull up the sectors that retail investors do not participate in.
Such as banks, such as non-ferrous metals, such as home appliances, and so on.
These sectors, which have not attracted much attention from retail investors in recent years, have pulled up the weighted index.
In recent years, the attention of retail investors has basically focused on the direction of technology, medical care, and new energy.
There are very few retail investors, and if they continue to squat in banks, home appliances, infrastructure, and coal, the attention of non-ferrous metals will be even lower.
Therefore, every time the index rises, it has little to do with retail investors, and retail investors will lose more money.
Of course, this only explains why retail investors lose money in general from the index level.
There are actually some deeper reasons why retail investors lose money.
First, the advance prediction of retail investors is basically wrong.
I often make predictions myself, and the probability of making mistakes is also very high.
There is a saying in the market that retail investors should follow and not make predictions.
That's true, but it's also not.
If retail investors do not make any predictions, they will always be slow and easy to be deceived by funds.
The so-called wash is for those retail investors who like to follow and chase the rise and fall.
If retail investors want to make money, they must have a certain prejudgment.
But behind the prediction, what needs to be done is to correct, that is, the judgment is wrong, and it must be corrected immediately, which is the key.
There is actually one more point about prediction.
The prediction of retail investors is often whether the stock will rise tomorrow.
And the prediction that can be made, or the prediction with higher accuracy, is whether it will rise at this stage.
If the time period can be moderately extended, the accuracy of prediction will actually be slightly higher.
Even if the king of heaven and Lao Tzu comes, he can't predict tomorrow's rise and fall, because many factors that affect the rise and fall are sudden.
However, it is still possible to predict the trend of a certain stage, a few weeks, and a certain month, and the accuracy will be improved a lot.
Second, the source of information for retail investors is always lagging behind.
Retail investors like to read information and speculate on stocks, and there is nothing wrong with this.
Because investment is an information war, there must be information at work behind the rise and fall of stocks.
But the root of the problem is that the information from retail investors is lagging and even ineffective.
Behind every rise and fall of the market, there will be many, many small compositions.
Retail investors are looking at the small essay to engage in investment, and the small essay itself is written for retail investors.
In the past, when there were not so many self-media, there were relatively few small essays, because the official media would not write small essays at will.
Nowadays, in the era of news flying all over the sky, there are small compositions everywhere, and under the divergent opinions, retail investors have become the grass on the wall.
In fact, keep in mind that there is no such thing as investment value in the public.
That is, when a message is put on a public platform and can be known to everyone, the value no longer exists.
This is like, tens of thousands of people in a live broadcast room, listening to others about which stock is good, there is a high probability that it will be a pig-killing plate.
Because tens of thousands of people, everyone invests tens of thousands, which is hundreds of millions, and it has become a large-scale pick-up scene.
Third, retail investors' trading actions are often slower than half a beat.
There is also a problem for retail investors to trade, which is called slow half-beat.
When buying, it is half a beat slower, and when it is selling, it is also half a beat slower.
Compared to some models and strategies, machine execution is very efficient.
And the mentality of retail investors is to wait and take a second look.
When buying, wait a while and see if you can buy it lower.
When you sell, wait a little longer to see if you can go up a little more.
This kind of trading mentality can easily deform the actions of retail investors, resulting in a higher price to buy and a very low price to sell.
When retail investors buy stocks, they are hesitant, and once they buy, they are holding a fluke mentality.
If you don't have a mature trading system to restrain the trading behavior of retail investors, it is really difficult to make money.
Fourth, the investment mentality of retail investors is easy to be deceived by the market.
The last point is about the investment mentality, which is not necessarily related to cognition.
It is easy for the market to perceive the retail mentality, especially in a volatile market.
A short-term decline, or a small adjustment in 2-3 days, will make the mentality of many retail investors falter.
Just like at the end of March, many retail investors thought that there was going to be a big adjustment.
Immediately afterwards, three consecutive positive candles brought retail investors back to life, and they were positive and optimistic in their mentality, and began to increase their positions in large quantities.
Another few days of adjustment once again plunged retail investors into despair and loss.
This mentality of both looking forward to rising and fearing falling made retail investors lose money in the shock.
If you judge that there is no major downside risk at the moment, then in the shock, just hold the stock with peace of mind, and don't operate back and forth.
Every operation is a possibility to make a mistake and a possibility to be deceived by the market.
The phenomenon of reducing positions at a low level and chasing up at a high level is still very frequent.
It's really hard for retail investors, and only 20-30% of them make money, which is normal.
Not like it is now, it has been like this since the stock market opened in the 90s.
How to find the direction of advantage in the already disadvantaged market, and see why the small number of people who make money can use the market as an ATM.