Since 2023, the share price of Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837) has fallen from a high of 16.8 yuan in June to about 9 yuan today.
We have recently noticed that the company's top ten shareholders have been "hidden" in the long term Wu Mingxiao, the former "ST king", not only the number of shares he holds has not changed in the past 4 years, but also his "friend" Wu Guanglai is still increasing his position.
We can't help but wonder, what is the investment logic of this "super bull" sticking to Qinchuan machine tool?
ST Professionals: Now in technology stocks
"ST King" is the name of Wu Mingxiao in the market in the early years.
According to Bronco Financial Information, Wu Mingxiao is a native of Shanghai and is 55 years old. As one of the earlier "Niu San" who became famous in the capital market, Wu Mingxiao has been involved in many fields, such as speculating in original stocks, operating warrants, etc., but what really made him "famous" is that he successfully invested in a number of restructuring themes in the ST sector in the big bull market before 2009, and at the peak of 2009, Wu Mingxiao once held 7 ST stocks at the same time. At that time, its investment logic was: with the spread of the financial crisis, the restructuring of enterprises intensified, and the value of shell resources of ST listed companies was highlighted.
▲ Picture: Wu Mingxiao
So, what is the investment performance of Wu Mingxiao, who aims at the "restructuring concept"?
According to media statistics, the 7 ST stocks held by Wu Mingxiao at that time brought him an investment income of up to 160 million yuan in one year, and the market value of the holding in 2009 exceeded 400 million yuan. Among them, the three companies that contributed the most had a total floating profit of nearly 100 million yuan. For example, through *ST Changyu (delisted) for more than a year, the floating profit of nearly 35.14 million yuan, through Tibet Mining (000762) for more than 3 months, and through *ST Zhongfang (delisted) for more than 3 months, the floating profit of about 31.7 million yuan.
In addition, Wu Mingxiao's investment characteristics are also patient and decisive adjustment. The first is that in March 2008, he bought 14 million shares of Tianxiaxiu (formerly ST Huiqiu) for 74 million yuan through a judicial auction, and after insisting on the failure of the stock for 6 consecutive restructurings, Wu Mingxiao returned 3.68 times in the 7th restructuring in 2014 (6 years later). The second is as one of the earliest individual investors in LETV,2011In 2011, Wu Mingxiao appeared in the sixth place in its top ten circulating shareholders with 1.56 million shares,And before the outbreak of the crisis in LETV2017In the first quarter,Wu Mingxiao decisively withdrew from the top ten shareholders,According to media calculations,Its profit exceeded 300 million yuan。
And the "smart investor" always "evolves" at the right time.
With the introduction of the new rules for the delisting of A-shares in 2021 and the advancement of the comprehensive registration-based reform, Wu Mingxiao has shifted the investment strategy to "technology stocks" in the previous specific stage.
According to Wind information, the "Guoming Mengzhen No. 3" fund of Shanghai Guoming Investment, which was established by Wu Mingxiao as a retired partner, has participated in the research of 16 listed companies since 2023, including electronic information, new materials, and biomedical industries, which shows its investment preference at this stage.
▲Figure: Participated in the institutional research of listed companies since 2023
As for the relationship between him and Wu Guanglai, the outside world usually calls the two "old comrades-in-arms".
Although Wu Mingxiao currently only has a heavy position in Qinchuan Machine Tool and Haima Automobile (000572), the two sides are betting on not only Qinchuan Machine Tool on the same stage, but also Tibet Mining, Shenzhou Taiyue (300002), Dexin Technology (603032) and other stocks.
In our opinion, "ST King" is only a stage of Wu Mingxiao's identity, and with the gradual deepening of the reform of the mainland capital market, Wu Mingxiao, who favors "long-term ambush", has become a "steady" professional investor.
Look at the "quasi-restructuring": the highest floating profit exceeds 60 million yuan
Shot Qinchuan machine tool, we think the timing is quite meaningful.
Wu Mingxiao first appeared in the top ten shareholders of Qinchuan Machine Tool in the fourth quarter of 2020, when he ranked the seventh largest shareholder of Qinchuan Machine Tool with 6.3495 million shares, holding 0.92% of the shares. And this year, it happened to be the critical moment when Qinchuan Machine Tool was transferred to Fast, and more importantly, in 2019, star entrepreneur Yan Jianbo took office as the chairman of the company and launched internal reforms.
▲Figure: Transfer announcement
Does it mean "quasi-restructuring stock"?
From Wu Mingxiao's investment perspective, choosing this timing is a manifestation of his new iteration of "old thinking" to seize "potential stocks". In our opinion, although the takeover of Qinchuan Machine Tool by Fast is not an "asset restructuring" in the traditional sense, the "restructuring effect" brought about by the new commander is far more than that.
Now it seems that Wu Mingxiao's judgment is obviously correct.
After 4 years of reform, the changes of Qinchuan machine tool are not only reflected in the appearance of Yan Jianbo taking over the next year's "star and hat", but also the internal operation has undergone great changes.
The first is asset consolidation. After the "reorganization", Qinchuan Machine Tool first acquired Walker Gear, a subsidiary of Fast Holdings, for 429 million yuan in June 2020 to achieve shell protection, and then "ruthlessly" divested its two "quasi-financial high-quality assets" Qinchuan Leasing and Qinchuan Factoring in March 2021, laying the foundation for the company to take the host business as the lead, high-end manufacturing and core components as the support, and intelligent manufacturing as a new breakthrough.
This was followed by a surge in performance. In 2020, Qinchuan Machine Tool will "turn losses into profits", with revenue of 4.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.39%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 153 million yuan, an increase of 151.38% compared with the previous loss of 298 million yuan in 2019, and in the next 2021, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent will both increase, reaching 5.052 billion yuan and 281 million yuan respectively, an increase of 23.38% and 83.68% year-on-year.
Of course, under the leadership of "industrialists", Qinchuan Machine Tool aims at "high-end" products. In the face of the problem of "stuck neck", Yan Jianbo clarified the "5221" development strategy, that is, in the future, the high-end machine tool host sector will account for 50% of the revenue, the high-end manufacturing sector represented by the robot joint reducer and the key parts sector represented by rolling functional components will account for 20% respectively, and the intelligent manufacturing sector will account for 10%. This goal has been clearly fulfilled in the company's private placement project in July 2022.
▲Figure: Qinchuan Machine Tool stock price
So, what is Wu Mingxiao's income in Qinchuan machine tool?
It is worth noting that Wu Mingxiao has not changed the number of shares held since Q4 2020 appeared in the top ten shareholders of Qinchuan Machine Tool, and once became the fourth largest shareholder of the company in 2022, with the reference market value at the end of Q4 in 2020, Wu Mingxiao's purchase cost was 44 million yuan, as of Q3 2023, it held a market value of 92 million yuan, and a floating profit of 48 million yuan, during this period, the share price of Qinchuan Machine Tool soared to 16.64 yuan (calculated by the close of June 28, 2023), and the highest floating profit exceeded 60 million yuan.
However, Wu Mingxiao and his "friends" are far more optimistic about Qinchuan Machine Tool, not only Wu Mingxiao has been "standing still" for a long time, Wu Guanglai has increased his position 5 times since he appeared in Q3 2021 after appearing in the top ten shareholders of the company, and the current number of shares has reached 4.4796 million shares.
Shaanxi stocks are like clouds: long-term adherence to good results
As a local financial observer, we have noticed that there are not a few "bulls" who are "heavy" in Shaanxi stocks. Combing through the current 82 A-share listed companies in Shaanxi, we have noticed the following characteristics.
On the investor side. While there is no shortage of "super bulls" such as Ge Weidong, Wei Wei, and Zhang Sufen, the family collectively takes action as its common strategy, and Shaanxi stocks are no exception. For example, among the top ten circulating shareholders of AVIC Xifei (000768), there are two "family cattle scatters", including Liu Shiqiang and Zhou Rongzhi, who entered the position at the same time in Q3 of 2020, and Ge Weidong's wife, sister Wang Ping and Ge Guilian who entered at the same time in Q2 of 2021. For example, Meibang (605033) has appeared as a "husband and wife" among the top ten circulating shareholders in Q2 2023.
▲Figure: Some "bulls" are currently and historically held in Shaanxi
On the part of the target company. More than half of the top ten circulating shareholders of listed companies in Shaanxi have appeared in the figure of "Niu San", and further sorting out finds that the listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board are becoming a dense position of "Niu San". Shaanxi has landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board since 2019, 11 of the 14 listed companies have appeared to varying degrees, and we have recently recorded Ge Weidong's participation in the private placement of BLT (688333) (see "159 times still dare to buy? "East Evil" Ge Weidong 150 million "bet" BLT"). Especially in the recently listed Aike Saibo (688719), in the third quarter report of 2023, "Niu San" such as Li Hui and Ke Dejun quickly appeared.
In addition, it is worth noting that based on the different tactics of the major "bull scatter", most of the investments in listed companies in Shaanxi are "phased holdings", but there are still many "long-term adherents" among them.
For example, Chen Fashu holds LONGi Green Energy (601012). Its first appearance was in Q3 of 2018 five years ago, according to the "market capitalization" estimate of the cost of building a position at that time of 2.2 billion yuan, combined with Wind data in 2022 to report the market value of its holdings of 11.5 billion yuan and in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 to reduce its holdings and cash out of more than 3 billion yuan, LONGi Green Energy once brought it a floating profit of more than 10 billion yuan. Even though the company has been in a downward channel in 2023, LONGi Green Energy is still its largest public heavy stock.
▲Figure: Chen Fashu's position in LONGi Green Energy
For example, Cheng Lixiang holds shares in Baoguang (600379). The first appearance was in Q4 2018, and then 11.82 million shares were granted by Tibet Fenghong at a price of 8 yuan per share, becoming a shareholder holding more than 5% of the shares, with an investment cost of about 100 million yuan, according to Wind data, in Q4 2021, Cheng Lixiang's market value once reached 190 million yuan, and until the end of the second quarter of 2023, he still holds 2.01% of the company's shares.
In our opinion, the seemingly special "bullish" investors are actually a group of "bold investors" who use "smart brains" to make "smart judgments", and the "stock god" Warren Buffett only uses the "25-person headquarters" to manage 500 billion huge assets?
Returning to the mainland, the "four major machine tools" are only fruitful, whether it is Yan Jian's drastic reform before the retreat, or Ma Xuyao took over and led Fast and Qinchuan Machine Tool to join hands with Chang'an Huitong and Qin Chuangyuan to develop 100 million yuan to set up a "scientific and technological innovation company", the first mention of "tens of millions of repurchases" for equity incentives and other "positive signals", we believe that under the leadership of the "industrialist" management of Qinchuan Machine Tool has walked out of a new route, perhaps this is also the consideration of "Niu San".