Mark Twain said: I have worried about many things in my life, but many things have never happened. Today continued the state of shock and fall since late March, the decline increased in the afternoon, startled a pool of flying herons, and the results of the A-share lift out of the emergency room before and after the Spring Festival were squandered again, and the closing rose below 3,000 points, and 4,600 of the more than 5,000 stocks in the two cities fell down. Break 3000 again, give you a chance to use it, do you want Ye Gong to be a good dragon or shrink his neck again in the fall, the choice is completely in our own hands, if the investment is to fight the waves, everyone's sailor can only be himself
The recent decline is not unique to A-shares, behind the weak trend of the global capital market, we have briefly commented on the impact of the yen interest rate hike on the liquidity of the global capital market, the tone is very clear, monetary policy is only one of the disturbances in investment rather than one of the pricing factors, as a dollar wingman, based on high government debt and weak real economy, the Japanese monetary authorities have extremely limited room for adjustment. Of course, the yen's interest rate hike in 1997 was a success in triggering the economic crisis in Southeast Asia, but this time the prey was mainly aimed at countries such as Vietnam and India, which had exaggerated capital markets in the past few years. The biggest impact on A-shares is at the psychological level, but once there is a liquidity risk in Southeast Asia, the prospects for the recovery of domestic foreign trade this year are not clear - we have repeatedly emphasized this year that new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, etc. are still facing certain internal and external pressures
Small essays are flying all over the sky, and some people are pretending to say that a few days ago, Morgan Stanley issued an article saying that A shares rebounded from a low of 2635 to 3090 points, which has rebounded by 15%, and recommended investors to take profits. Since I don't go over the wall and don't pay much attention to the judgment of institutions on market points (in my opinion, the operating quality and business development of listed companies have nothing to do with the overall market and the points themselves), it is difficult to verify counterfeits. Having said that, in the second half of last year, the mainland proposed to invigorate the capital market, but foreign capital did not play a good role, and the fraudulent market made many people confused, and the stock market Bethune's fame spread far and wide. Objectively speaking, since foreign capital has a certain amount of liquidity, its words and deeds have a concrete impact on A-shares, whose mental attributes are biased towards obscenity. But on the other hand, we stress that the most certain amount of incremental foreign investment at present is the $10 trillion sovereign capital in the Middle East, which was agreed upon at last year's summit between China and the Arab world, with about 10% of its funds invested in China's capital markets over the next five years. There are not only Europe, America and Japan on the earth, but the West does not shine brightly in the East. And a lot of Middle Eastern funds are accustomed to the combination of their industrial demand, buying domestic new energy, petrochemical and other equity assets, Morgan Stanley has to think that the valuation of 3,000 points of A-shares is high and the risk is high, and we can't force others not to
There are two more trading days, March is coming to an end, the tone of this month's market first rises and then falls, in line with the first quarter of the spring restless trilogy, brewing in January, the main dish in February, closing in March, and the upcoming April is more interesting, called April decision. In the second half of this month, some stocks are a bit of a game stockholder, such as Ai Ai Seiko, etc., who interpret the boring and random style of travel capital into a brainless and speechless manner. Taking this opportunity, we can also mention to you some special time window precautions for A-shares, for example, January and April generally do not try the theme, because January has a performance pre-disclosure, April is a performance verification, and the performance vacuum period can be hazy expected, but January and April need to be really passed. The most popular at the beginning of this year,Or the AI that began last year,If you are willing to review,You will find,Ai is also from April last year after gradually showing its fangs,And then experienced a shock and fall for about half a year,This year it seems that the light boat has passed the ten thousand mountains,But once the rhythm control fails after chasing high,The experience of holding shares is very bad
With the new CSRC team taking office, the idea of focusing on the quality of listed companies has been clarified, and unannounced inspections and IPO back-checks have become routine operations. Recently, the financial fraud of successive enterprises has been exposed, and some of them are still central enterprises, such as Zhongtai Chemical, from 2021 to 2023, the company has inflated its income by 8.9 and 2.142 billion respectively. After seven and a half consecutive years of financial fraud, Guangyuyuan also experienced two controlling shareholders, Shaanxi Dongsheng Group and Shanxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the former falsely stated that it failed to perform performance compensation in mergers and acquisitions, and the latter took over by recognizing income in advance and delaying the recognition of expenses, cooperating with the capital market to carry out hot speculation. Regulation is by no means turning over the old accounts of history, in fact, the registration system means that the law is severe, otherwise, China's capital market will always be a dung pit to pick up beans and carve. Only by improving the credibility of the quality and performance disclosure of listed companies can the capital market be stable and far-reaching, and become a reservoir of residents' wealth
Shuanghui Development today ugly daughter-in-law met with her in-laws, was directly KO by the market, the fourth quarter performance is indeed thin, I spent half an hour to do some core data tracking, noticed that behind the fourth quarter data, mainly affected by the increase in sales expenses, inventory provision, fixed assets to solidify, etc., to remove these factors, the overall data is balanced, and the report is not so bad - Shuanghui will increase the project in the fourth quarter of last year, pork and chicken have carried out more than 200 million assets to solidify, and it is expected that there will be 800 million this year, the company has previously intervened in pork, Chicken breeding, and with the help of the development of the industrial chain, last year is climbing production capacity; there is the company's 2 billion frozen meat hoarding last year or underestimated the pig cycle tail is toxic, can only be calculated 200 million, but in the first quarter of this year pork has risen by 20%, some of the company's judgments still reflect professionalism. Coupled with 400 million sales expenses, 800 million will not do this. Shuanghui's core data mainly depends on the company's meat product sales volume and frozen meat profits, these two data, the former is stable, the latter is steadily increasing, and there is no change in the basic market. Today, there is a high probability that the reflection will be excessive, whether it is big consumption, or high dividends, the 2024 expectation is actually not bad, wait and see
Continue to emphasize that the market is in a state of consolidation at the bottom of the basic research judgment, in the macroeconomic situation is relatively weak, not only to have a long-term plan, but also to seriously do a good job in the patient layout of the fundamental diagnosis of listed companies