According to the National Energy Administration, as of the end of February this year, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity has reached 2.97 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation is about 650 million kilowatts, an increase of 56.9% year-on-year.
Huafu Securities pointed out that in the first two months of this year, the new installed capacity of solar power increased by more than 80% year-on-year, which exceeded market expectations. Some of the projects awarded in the fourth quarter of 2023 have been connected to the grid in the first quarter of 2024, and from the bidding data, the cumulative bidding and bidding since the beginning of the year has exceeded 80GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%, and the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to maintain a high growth rate this year.
In the context of the high growth of photovoltaic installation, new batteries are expected to become the core increment and a link worth paying attention to. Major cell technologies, including HJT, BC, perovskites, etc., are expected to benefit from the new round of photovoltaic cell technology revolution.
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HJT battery
HJT cell, or heterojunction cell, is a solar cell with a special structure, which is characterized by the deposition of amorphous silicon thin films on crystalline silicon to form P-N heterojunction.
The structural design of HJT battery not only realizes the effective passivation of the battery, but also greatly improves the conversion efficiency of the battery. At present, LONGi has set the world's highest record for the efficiency of silicon-based solar cells with a conversion efficiency of 26.81%.
HJT cells are gradually introducing bifacial microcrystalline technology, and HJT cells using bifacial microcrystalline process are expected to further improve conversion efficiency.
In actual production applications, there have been a number of HJT production lines to achieve a high conversion efficiency of more than 23%. With the continuous breakthrough of technology and the further reduction of costs, the mass production efficiency of HJT cells is expected to exceed 27% in the future.
To achieve this goal, the core challenge of HJT batteries is how to effectively reduce production costs. At present, the yield of HJT cells is already at a high level, which provides strong support for further cost reduction.
According to CPIA's forecast, HJT cells are expected to take the lead in the solar cell market by 2030.
Schematic diagram of HJT battery structure:
Source: LONGi Green Energy
Compared to other high-efficiency batteries, the preparation process of HJT batteries requires only four steps: texturing cleaning, boron deposition by PECVD, phosphorus deposition by PECVD, TCO layer, and screen separation test.
Although the number of equipment in the HJT technical route is relatively small, the technical difficulty is very high, and the coating equipment is the core equipment.
In terms of competitive landscape, the photovoltaic equipment industry has a strong first-mover advantage.
At present, Myway shares occupy a leading position in the HJT main equipment market, and companies such as Junshi Energy, Ideal, Jiejia Weichuang, and Jinchen are also accelerating their layout.
In addition, the electroplating copper equipment is in the accelerated R&D test period, and is expected to move towards mass production in 2024-2025.
The layout of the four major manufacturers of HJT equipment:
BC battery
BC battery technology is the back contact battery technology, in which both the PN junction and the metal contact are placed on the back of the battery, so that the front side of the battery can be fully exposed to sunlight without any shade. This not only increases the area of the battery to absorb sunlight and improves the photoelectric conversion efficiency, but also gives the battery a higher aesthetic performance, making it especially suitable for distributed photovoltaic power generation scenarios.
BC batteries have excellent high-temperature performance and low power attenuation characteristics, which can maintain excellent power generation performance under high-temperature conditions and throughout the life cycle, thus ensuring stable power generation income.
There are significant differences between BC batteries and heterojunction and homojunction batteries in terms of efficiency improvement paths.
By reducing the shading area and moving the front grid to the back, the front side of the battery is unobstructed, reducing optical loss, and thus improving the conversion efficiency.
As a platform technology, BC cells have extremely high compatibility and can be combined with various technologies such as P-type, HJT, TOPCON, and perovskite to form a variety of efficient cell technology routes such as HPBC, HBC, TBC, and perovskite tandems.
At present, the new BC battery technology has been extended to the new generation, forming three main technical routes.
However, BC battery technology also faces some challenges, mainly including high equipment investment costs caused by long production processes, followed by yield problems caused by difficult production.
BC battery structure diagram:
The two main players of BC batteries in China are LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Shares. LONGi Green Energy has invested in the construction of an annual HPBC cell production capacity of 30GW. In the future, LONGi's new production capacity will continue to focus on BC battery technology.
Aiko's 6.5GW ABC cell production capacity in Zhuhai has basically reached production, and another 3.5GW is being installed and commissioned. In addition, Aiko is also building 15GW of ABC cell module production capacity in Yiwu, and the company's total BC cell module production capacity will reach 25GW after completion.
In addition, the HBC mass production line jointly established by Jinyang New Energy and Goldstone Energy has been implemented. The production line has the advantages of high efficiency, high capacity and low cost, and will be expanded to 5GW in the future, with a conversion efficiency of more than 27%.
With the implementation of the production capacity of many manufacturers and the implementation of expansion plans, the industrialization process of the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate. #光伏 ##财经#
Diagram of the leading domestic cell manufacturers:
perovskite
With the gradual maturity of photovoltaic technology and approaching the theoretical limit of its photoelectric conversion efficiency, the industry has begun to actively explore a new generation of solar energy technology. Perovskite solar cells have unique advantages and potential as a new type of thin-film solar cells.
Perovskite solar cells use perovskite-type metal halide semiconductors as light-absorbing layer materials to drive the battery by absorbing photons to generate electron pairs.
Over the past decade, the efficiency of perovskite cells has increased rapidly from the initial 3% to 28%. Perovskite cells have completed the 40-year development process of silicon-based cells in just 13 years, showing great potential and development prospects.
Compared with crystalline silicon cells, the preparation process of perovskite cell modules can be completed in a single factory, while the production of crystalline silicon cells needs to go through four stages: silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells and modules, which are processed in different factories. This makes the production process of perovskite cells more centralized and economical.
It is worth noting that despite the many advantages of perovskite cells, the current technology for large-scale preparation of perovskite layers is still immature, and the stability of perovskite materials is not high enough, so there is still a certain distance from industrial application. At present, a number of excellent perovskite cell companies have emerged in China, such as GCL Optoelectronics, Micronano Optoelectronics, Jidian Solar Energy, etc. In addition, in the layout of perovskite equipment, domestic equipment manufacturers mainly include Dehu Coating, Zhongneng Optoelectronics, Jiejia Weichuang, Shengcheng Optoelectronics (a subsidiary of Jingshan Light Machine), Myway Co., Ltd. and Dier Laser.
Perovskite cell industry chain and manufacturers:
In general, the iteration of photovoltaic cell technology route promotes the development process of the photovoltaic industry chain. With the emergence of new cell technologies, from traditional silicon-based cells to innovative technologies such as perovskite solar cells, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a new round of change.
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