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WuXi Biologics, which is suffering, has come to a turning point

WuXi Biologics, which is suffering, has come to a turning point

The shadow of the U.S. Biosafety Act is still widening, and WuXi Biologics, a leading company in the CXO field, is suffering from one pain after another, and doubts are coming.

But just now, the big reversal came.

The bill's initiator, Mike Gallagher, a four-term Republican Wisconsin Rep. announced on Friday that he would leave his post early, effective in mid-April.

It is said that his resignation is mainly due to pressure from within the Republican Party, when the Texas border immigrants poured into the United States, the Republican Party initiated an impeachment against a secretary in charge of national security in the Biden administration, but because this Mike Gallagher defected and did not vote in favor, resulting in the failure of the impeachment, so the Republican Party is very dissatisfied with this person.

The proponents of the bill have all left their posts, and I wonder how such a bill will continue?

We can continue to track this matter and see how it progresses, but I think it is more important to look at the fundamentals of WuXi Biologics.

March 26

WuXi Biologics has just released its annual report.

Today, we will combine this annual report and various information in the current market to analyze WuXi Biologics' current situation and future trends.

First, will WuXi Biologics' valuation collapse?

First of all, I have to frankly admit that what has happened recently is the biggest crisis that WuXi Biologics has encountered since its launch in many years.

But WuXi still held on.

On March 18, WuXi AppTec, which is at the center of public opinion, took the lead in releasing its annual report. The annual report shows solid figures: in 2023, WuXi AppTec's revenue will reach 40 billion yuan, and the adjusted non-IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed 10 billion yuan for the first time.

Looking at the overall financial report, although the revenue is less than expected, there is still room for imagination. It is worth mentioning that the net profit attributable to the parent company on the book increased by 9%, which was more violent than the revenue growth momentum.

March 26

WuXi Biologics' annual report has also been released.

Revenue increased by 11.6% year-on-year to RMB17.03 billion, while gross profit increased by 1.5% year-on-year to RMB6.83 billion.

Despite a lot of worries in 2023, WuXi Biologics has a record number of 698 integrated projects and 132 new integrated projects, setting a record high for the number of new non-COVID projects in a single fiscal year.

Excluding the new crown project, the revenue of late-stage clinical and commercial production increased by 101.7% year-on-year, and the future revenue growth potential is huge.

Notably, WuXi Biologics also announced that its order backlog reached US$20.6 billion, which means that WuXi Biologics' revenue will not be negative for at least three to four years in the next three to four years.

There is also a key point, which can be seen from this annual report:

WuXi Biologics' global footprint has been further strengthened, and the current production capacity is being released at an accelerated pace.

WuXi Biologics' Irish site, for example, was a meadow when it broke ground in February 2019, but it has now become a state-of-the-art biologics site with a forward-looking combination of 4,000-liter single-use bioreactors for large-scale commercial production, and the first GMP certification from the Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA) of Ireland within just nine months of operation, with production capacity nearly fully booked in 2025.

Since 2020, WuXi Biologics has acquired two state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities in Germany, doubling the total drug substance production capacity of the 30,000-square-meter Wuppertal site from 12,000 liters to 24,000 liters. WuXi Biologics is also ramping up its U.S. manufacturing capacity, and the foundation stone of the integrated CRDMO center in Singapore began in March this year, which will become the first integrated CRDMO site in Singapore to focus on end-to-end biologics services.

WuXi Biologics proudly announces:

With strong service capabilities and ample production capacity, it is possible to ensure that any new project can be started within four weeks.

WuXi Biologics doesn't have no cards in its hand, what are you afraid of?

Second, how big is the impact of decoupling?

Many people are afraid of the decoupling of biomedicine between China and the United States, and feel that decoupling is the "end times".

In fact, many people in the American business community are also opposing decoupling, because almost all companies cooperating with Chinese CXOs hope to encounter problems in finding alternatives, and the willingness of the American industry to decouple innovative drugs is not strong.

First, the United States has a surplus of innovative drugs for us, and second, the industry cooperation attribute is greater than the competition attribute

WuXi has achieved a leading position in the CXO field, and its strength (efficient cost reduction) is unshakable, and the ban on WuXi will really damage the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, which is certain, and decoupling is "killing a thousand enemies and losing 800 self", which is bound to encounter great resistance.

One example is DJI, where the U.S. doesn't allow the government to buy DJI products, but it still has an 80% market share in the U.S.

拦得住吗?

Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are still approving clinical and new drugs in the United States, and they know that they have the best advantage in medicine, and at the same time, they also need the best drugs in the world to help them treat their own diseases.

As early as February 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce added WuXi Biologics to the Unverified List (UVL), and WuXi Biologics was suspended after falling 30% intraday trading on the same day. In September, Biden signed an executive order encouraging U.S. biotech production and research, and the next day, WuXi Biologics fell another 20 percent.

After all kinds of tosses, WuXi still hit a new high in 2023, what does it mean?

Today's WuXi Biologics is Huawei, and the short-term plunge brought about by the security bill is an opportunity, while the stock price is falling, institutions are still buybacking, and this buyback is the first time in the history of the CXO industry, what does it mean?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its holdings of WuXi Biologics by almost 14.78 million shares on March 4, rising to 6.22%.

We must believe in the judgment of capital, and we must believe that the US bill is not human truth, WuXi Biologics is still one of the "most hard-working" companies at this stage, and although the United States is currently the largest biologics market, China's innovative drug market environment is recovering, although the recovery is not the most perfect, compared with Europe and the United States.

However, it can be seen that in the past two decades, China has gone from a country that can only produce good and bad generic drugs to a player that can produce innovative drugs in the global market, posing a real challenge to the absolute superiority of the US pharmaceutical industry.

The future of Chinese pharmaceutical companies is a sea of stars, and the growth of the domestic market is expected in the future.

Third, WuXi Biologics is essentially a news surface

and the emotional side of the game

The greatest fear is the fear itself.

There is no doubt that the suppression of us by the United States is certainly all-round.

In fact, WuXi Biologics has been deepening its localization strategy and strengthening communication and cooperation with the U.S. government and relevant institutions to ensure the company's steady development in a complex and volatile international environment. At the same time, WuXi Biologics has also stepped up its presence in other key markets around the world, making the best efforts to maintain certainty in an uncertain landscape.

One of the most obvious examples is:

"Twin Plant Strategy"

As early as 2018 or earlier, WuXi Biologics began implementing a "Global Twin Fab Program" to allow partners who have signed contracts with WuXi Biologics to commercialize at any two of WuXi Biologics' sites in China, Europe, and the U.S., ensuring global supply of products while eliminating the risk of technology transfer between different suppliers.

Judging from the performance report for the first half of 2023, the proportion of revenue in Europe has increased significantly, from 18.0% in the first half of 2022 to 30%, which confirms the feasibility of the strategy of "global dual-factory production".

We also need to see that

Hong Kong-listed companies are subject to negative news fluctuations have their own particularities and are most susceptible to negative news

Tencent, Unicom, and Fosun Pharma all suffered from it back then.

WuXi Biologics is no exception today.

2024 is the year of the U.S. election, and the story of "the wolf is coming" may continue to be staged repeatedly.

First of all, we stand with China, and we support China-US friendship and oppose decoupling.

Second, we stand on the side of tens of thousands of WuXi employees and tens of thousands of public shareholders, and support companies to fight for their legitimate rights and livelihoods, not to be intimidated by intimidation, and never to give away the fruits of their labor and interests.

At that time, the Germans looked down on Chinese cars and thought that Chinese cars were garbage, but now 16 years have passed, and BYD's electric cars have been shipped to German ports in whole ships. In time, we believe that China's innovative drugs will go to the world in an all-round way. NVIDIA's stock price has risen 10,000 times in more than 20 years, and it shouldn't be a big problem for China's innovative drugs to double in the next few years, right?

If WuXi Biologics can survive the disaster, which India, which will only import APIs and intermediates from China, and Samsung Biologics, which one will be WuXi Biologics' opponent?

In the face of a complex and ever-changing international environment, we must have a high degree of vigilance and flexible response, and we should all the more have the conviction to win and the courage to move forward.

Although we cannot do without innovative drugs in Europe and the United States, Europe and the United States cannot do without our things, and WuXi Biologics does business."

handful

A piece of paper idea becomes a biologic drug that can change the trajectory of life

and vaccines", not all cats and dogs can be touched.

Will politicians like Mike Gallagher carry sticks in the future?

I think so. They've done this to Toshiba, to Wen Ho Lee, to ZTE and Huawei, and now they're continuing to do it to companies like TikTok.

The story of the siege of the "imaginary enemy" is not the first and will not be the last. Of course, no matter how things change, there will always be people who grasp their own opportunities in every change in the scales and usher in their own blossoming spring.

Legal Counsel: HaiSoft Law Firm

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