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"Poison" and "aphrodisiac" are not wanted! Where is the only way out for China's economy?

"Poison" and "aphrodisiac" are not wanted! Where is the only way out for China's economy?

"Poison" and "aphrodisiac" are not wanted! Where is the only way out for China's economy?

Zhou Qiren is a professor at the National School of Development at Peking University

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    Zhongguancun Industrial Upgrading Research Institute | 

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Zhou Qiren| author 

 Guide

Recently, the "poison" and "aphrodisiac" theories about China's economy have become popular on the Internet.

(If money does not flow into ordinary households, inflation and the economy will hardly improve even if money and debt continue to rise; if money formed by printing money and bonds flows into ordinary households, people are worried about inflation.) The former is a poison and the latter is an aphrodisiac. )

Zhou Qiren, a professor at Peking University, believes that China is now facing a state of two sea levels, and the image metaphor has become a sandwich, we are caught in the middle, the cost has risen up, and the market cost has also risen. Labor is expensive, and land is expensive, but we don't have much unique things in our hands.

Zhou Qiren pointed out that China's economy can only rely on ...... if it is in a difficult situation

The only way out for the Chinese economy

Zhou Qiren | wen

1. The international situation that China is now facing: shrinking external demand and anti-globalization

To understand China's economic growth from the previous high-speed growth to 6%~7% medium-high growth, we must first understand the global pattern.

Suppose there are two economies, one rich and one poor. Wells country is 100,000 pieces of capital, 300 people. A poor country is 10 dollars of capital and 3,000 people. The former is analogous to Europe, the United States and Japan, and the latter is China in the 80s of the last century.

There was a blue wall between these two economies, and everyone lived their own lives, and poverty meant that there was no capital, and without capital, there was no means to increase productivity, and to a large extent, relying on manpower and natural forces, economic progress was very slow. Rich countries have abundant capital that can be converted into productivity, so the gap between rich and poor will widen.

Now to open up the blue wall is to reform and open up this barrier. When opened: when the two economies are added together, the total capital becomes 100,000 and 10 yuan, and the total population is 3,300 people. The relative proportions of the factors have changed, and in our familiar words, "the competitive landscape has changed".

First, the total capital of rich countries has only increased by 10 yuan, but the total population has increased by 3,000 people to rob it.

It used to be 100,000 yuan for 300 people, but now 3,300 people use 100,000 and 10 yuan, so the scarcity of capital has increased. Here's why Wall Street can make a lot of money after globalization.

Second, the rich state has science and technology, and 3,300 people have come to grab science and technology, and the scarcity of science and technology has also increased.

However, the trouble with the economy of rich countries is that there were only 300 people in the past, but now 3,300 people are required to compete for job opportunities together, and the competition among workers has intensified.

Therefore, the unemployment rate in developed countries, especially among young people, has remained high, and this is the reason.

As a result, the olive-shaped social structure of developed countries after World War II was destroyed, and after globalization, polarization was severe, and the Gini coefficient increased.

Wall Street, Silicon Valley is making a lot of money, but there is a big group of people in the middle who are very lost, and the manufacturing workers, the middle and lower classes, are under more pressure than they get in the process of globalization.

Of course, there are also advantages, that is, Chinese products are very cheap, and the United States enjoys stable prices, so the actual living standards of the poor will not be so badly reduced. But compared with Wall Street and Silicon Valley, the relative income gap comes out.

This is the case in developed countries, where the high Gini coefficient after World War II dropped, and then went back up, and then it brought about social contradictions. Because many aunts and uncles in the United States can't reach finance and high technology, and they are the largest in numbers, they will have a sense of anger, so in the midst of globalization, "Occupy Wall Street" has occurred.

In the current global pattern, the average level of developed countries and the United States is declining, but China is improving. Our per capita GDP has risen from $200 in 1978 to $8,000 now, and Shenzhen is tens of thousands of dollars (25,000). In the United States, the price has risen from $13,500 in 1978 to $50,000 now.

Therefore, Trump also appeared, and Trump reflected a trend: in all major changes, not every person, every group, and every sector can equally gain benefits, some highs and some lows, some gains and losses, so social contradictions will arise.

There's another term to talk about here: comparative advantage. Ricardo's theory is actually that countries should make use of their strengths and avoid their weaknesses, and choose things with high productivity, so that the overall output of the whole society will be high. But Samuelson's later research concluded that this was not right, because China did everything, after making socks to build cars, after building cars and airplanes, everyone's advantages converged, forcing developed countries to not know what to do.

Before his death, Samuelson asked a question: What did the original bicycle-builder build now, but what did the original airplane builder make?

It is in this way that China has earned a huge high surplus over the years. And the comparative advantage of the United States is gone, and the laws outside the economy will come into play, trade frictions, barrier-making, and even international tensions are coming, and the financial crisis is also coming.

From an external point of view, our current economic downturn is first of all the contraction of global external demand, if you are a mainly dependent on domestic demand development, the impact on you is small, but we are in the rapid growth, we are highly dependent on external demand, of course, the impact is greater.

2. The domestic situation that China is now facing: the cost advantage has weakened, and the institutional cost has risen again

Looking at the economic situation we are facing now, from the inside, it is that costs are changing, and at the heart of it is a resurgence in institutional costs.

China's rapid globalization is because of its cost advantage. We have been poor for many years if we don't open up, and once we open up, we find that poverty is competitiveness. Poverty is low wages, and low wages are low costs. The same product has a low cost and low price, and buyers all over the world are the same good quality and low price, of course buy yours.

But now this cost is changing, labor costs, land, energy, all prices are changing in the rapid economic growth, the most typical example is Cao Dewang set up a factory in the United States.

What is the biggest change in cost?

It is inaccurate to attribute China's rise solely to cheap labor, because cheap labor does not explain China's rise. Before the reform and opening up, labor was cheaper, and at that time there was no Chinese miracle, and now the labor force of many African countries is cheaper than ours.

It is not that the factor is cheap to become competitive, the factor becomes competitiveness to become a product, the factor becomes a product to be organized, and the organization must operate in a system. This leads to the problem of the system.

Therefore, the real secret of China's economic rise is not that it was poor, but that it has turned the closure that led to poverty into openness, and in the process of opening up, it allows organizational innovation and institutional reform.

For example, if the peasants are not guaranteed to produce to their households, they will not be able to liberate themselves, and if they do not have the enthusiasm for production, they will still be "800 million peasants with a population of one billion, and 800 million peasants will not have enough to eat."

With structural reform, there are the following links. Where can the labor force be liberated and go to work? This in turn has forced out the private enterprises. So the WTO negotiations were forced out, and the contract was signed in 1997, with a five-year preparatory period, and in 2002, China rushed in, opening up the world market and opening up the original obstacles.

After entering the WTO, at the beginning, it was still "limited to the award", but later tasted the sweetness and killed all of them, which rushed to the forefront of globalization.

Therefore, China's cost advantage is not entirely the original cheap labor, but mainly the second advantage, through reform, the original extremely high system cost has been greatly reduced.

It is this up-and-coming style of play that has significantly reduced the cost of our system, the theories given by several Nobel laureates, in China. The decline in institutional costs, combined with the low cost of the original factors, adds a third force - the learning curve. Eventually, it became known as the "China Story".

But now a new problem has arisen. The new problem is that the cost has come up again, and the original cost advantage has disappeared. Now we generally talk about the disappearance of cost advantages and the rise of labor and wages, of course, this problem exists, but what is ignored by everyone is that the cost of our system is rising again in the rapid growth.

1995~2012 was the fastest growth period in China. Our nominal GDP is 8.6 times the growth, the total national wage has increased by 8.8 times, the tax has increased by 16.7 times, the government's income other than taxes has increased by 18.8 times, the social security insurance and one housing fund that must be paid by law have increased by 28.7 times, and the most critical thing is land, the land transfer fee obtained by the government for exclusive land supply has increased by 64 times!

For example, to this day, we have not reached the legal requirement for taxation, and this was stipulated by the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee, and many of our current taxes are set directly by the administrative departments, and the government has set the amount of tax collectors without going through the examination and approval of the people's congress. Then it's easy to overdo it all at once.

For example, this government said that it would streamline administration and delegate power, but most of the documents that were added later were not added in the era of planning but in the era of high growth, and we suffered this loss in this wave of downturn. These are systemic issues.

Now there is no big capitalist hat, but there are a lot of small ropes, this one does not work, that one does not work. These things add up to a large coefficient of friction. It doesn't matter if you increase friction at high speed for a long time. The problem is that as soon as external demand shrinks, these variables come.

There are also twists and turns in the attitude towards new technology.

There is also urbanization, and our administrative divisions are organized. Urban construction is said to be good, but it is wasted, how many facilities are repaired that no one goes to, how much cement and steel are consumed, how many emissions of cement and steel are consumed, and then it goes back to our lungs.

You have to follow the flow of population and resources to develop urbanization, and invest well where you are willing to go, central cities, urban agglomerations, and urban circles. The place where the person is unwilling to stay is also the forest, the environment, the green mountains and green waters, and the characteristic town.

3. China's economic breakthrough: institutional reform + innovation

The third part is how to ensure our cost advantage, two ways: reducing institutional costs and innovation.

China is now facing a state where there are two sea levels, the image metaphor has become a sandwich, we are caught in the middle, the cost has risen on top, and the market cost has also risen. Labor is expensive, and land is expensive, but we don't have many unique things in our hands.

The competition in this world is just two sentences, you either have more cost than others, or you have something unique in your hand. For example, American apples are sold all over the world, and they queue up all night to buy them because they have you don't.

Now we have 30 years of reform and opening up rapid growth of the great achievements, the global pattern is sandwiched in the middle, there is India, there is Vietnam, he is cheaper than you, his efforts to attract investment is stronger than ours, have learned.

Under such circumstances, there will be an unstoppable change in the entire economic growth model. Now we must continue our cost advantage, but the institutional cost of the cost, this thing has not been reformed, and it cannot be solved by the private sector alone. Without the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, which took the initiative to initiate rounds of deepening reforms, it would be difficult to reduce this cost.

For example, the social security fund, many of our current statutory protection rates are higher than those in the United States. At the beginning, there was no way to pay so much, and at that time, it was a large-scale loss of state-owned enterprises, so the social security payment rate was set relatively high. But at that time, there was a saying that in the future, the assets of large, profitable state-owned enterprises should be transferred to social security, and the income should be used to offset social security.

But it is not easy to do it, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China wrote this article in, that is, to allocate a number of state-owned assets to the social security fund, and then reduce the legal security rate.

Our experience has proven that if the cost of the system falls, the economy will develop well, and if the cost of the system rises, the entire country and nation will be dragged down.

The advantage of gradual reform is that the shock is low, and it is not a one-time solution. However, the difficulty of gradual reform is that you have to "maintain progressiveness," so structural reform must be changed until the cost of the system is lowered again.

Since this cost cannot be reduced, whether it can be extended is to push the cost curve to the right and extend it as long as possible. Because, this cost curve will definitely go up, $200 to $8,000 per capita will become tens of thousands of dollars in Shenzhen, this cost will definitely go up, but we can move the entire cost curve to the right to prolong the cost advantage for a longer period of time.

For example, workers are very expensive, I produce high value-added things, if I also produce socks, if it is still this process, this set of productivity is very expensive. You change a little.

So the real way to deal with cost pressures is to constantly shift our cost curve to the right to form a cost movement that will continue to be competitive in the long run. This is the only way to do it in the business world, and it is also the only way to compete in the entire economic system and the economic system.

The first breakthrough direction to reduce costs is the institutional reform just mentioned. The second breakthrough direction is innovation, through which a new global impasse is formed.

Only by introducing new products, changing existing quality, introducing new production methods, opening up new markets, seizing new sources of raw materials and semi-finished products, and creating new economic organizations, innovation can bring sustained economic growth.

Innovation is important and great, but it doesn't have to happen. The cost curve will not necessarily shift to the right, otherwise where will there be so many overcapacity, zombie enterprises, chicken ribs, and critically ill and stagnant enterprises?

For example, Israel has 3,500 startups with 8 million people, and Tel Aviv leads the cutting-edge R&D in Silicon Valley, and there is not a single large company in the United States that does not have their R&D centers in Tel Aviv, they rely on people, ideas, inventions, and education.

In short, if China does not innovate and reform, it will not get out of its current predicament.

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#111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: RGBA(6, 174, 86, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), 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dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}.rich_media_content em{font-style:italic}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}: root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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