The eve of the trade-in | Tens of millions of replacement space The "flanker" effect of second-hand cars is gaining momentum
The upcoming new round of "trade-in" will not only increase replacement subsidies in advance to seek new car increments, but also the elimination of second-hand cars and old cars will also usher in growth space. The State Council recently issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in" (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan"), which proposes that by 2027, not only will the transaction volume of second-hand cars increase by 45% compared with 2023, but the recycling volume of end-of-life cars will also increase by about double that of 2023. As one of the keys to driving the domestic stock automobile market, the pain points that hindered the circulation of second-hand cars, such as vehicle relocation, taxation restrictions and the lack of temporary property rights registration, have been opened up one after another, but the continuous new car price war since last year has made second-hand car dealers face the current situation of downward fluctuations in second-hand car collection prices and low vehicle prices. In the face of a new round of "trade-in" after the start of a large number of replacement second-hand cars into the market, how to release the new momentum of second-hand car circulation again? Industry insiders believe that second-hand car dealers can start from the business side, improve the service level and after-sales level, make the car condition more transparent, so that consumers can buy cars more assured.
New cars "rolled" used cars
The butterfly effect caused by the new car price war has changed the transaction pattern of the second-hand car market.
According to the statistics of the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Dealers Association"), the domestic second-hand car transaction volume last year was 18.4133 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.88%. At the beginning of last year, according to Luo Lei, assistant to the president of the Circulation Association, "the growth of the second-hand car market throughout the year will not be satisfied with only 10%, and it is not impossible for the transaction volume to hit the 20 million mark." "Obviously, the transaction volume of 18,413,300 vehicles did not meet expectations. For last year's second-hand car market, Lu Guangzhi, deputy director of the Information Department of the Circulation Association, summed it up as "the off-season is not light, and the peak season is not prosperous".
Since last year, the price war in the new car market has begun, which has had a certain impact on the sales and prices of used cars. According to statistics, the average transaction price of second-hand cars last year was 64,100 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 2,000 yuan. The Circulation Association said that the average transaction price of used cars fell last year, mainly due to the low average price in the first half of the year. Although the average price of used cars in the market increased in January this year, it was still 8,700 yuan compared with the same period in 2022.
"Under the influence of frequent price reductions of new cars and sudden official reductions of car companies, second-hand car dealers are cautious in collecting cars, and when they encounter models with recent price cuts, they choose to wait and see for the second-hand cars of the model, for fear that the price of new cars will continue to drop after the car is collected, resulting in a price difference in second-hand car prices. A person in charge of a second-hand car dealer revealed that the overall profit last year was only 1/3 of that in 2022. It is understood that the continuous price reduction of new cars not only makes the price of second-hand cars fluctuate, but also correspondingly lengthens the inventory cycle of second-hand cars. The person in charge of the above-mentioned second-hand car dealer said: "The price reduction of new cars has made many consumers who want to buy second-hand cars begin to wait and see the price trend of new cars and used cars at the same time. "The data shows that in January this year, the proportion of enterprises with a second-hand car inventory cycle of 15-30 days was 50.9%, an increase of 2.2% month-on-month, and in February this year, the average inventory cycle of second-hand cars was 59 days, an increase of 1 day month-on-month.
The volume market was "wounded" by new cars, and second-hand car dealers began to lock their profit points into the source of high-quality cars. "At present, some high-quality second-hand cars with a car age of 4-6 years and a mileage of less than 50,000 kilometers have become the objects sought after by second-hand car dealers, and there will even be bidding between car dealers. In the view of second-hand car dealer Sun Li (pseudonym), compared with quasi-new second-hand cars that are more obviously affected by the decline in new car prices, boutique second-hand cars with a longer age but less mileage are not affected, and second-hand car dealers can ensure certain transaction profits while the transaction cycle is controllable.
"For example, GAC Toyota Camry, the price of a 1-year-old quasi-new car is about 190,000 yuan, but the model with a low mileage of 5 years is about 150,000 yuan. Sun Li said. It is worth mentioning that not only second-hand car dealers are pursuing high-quality second-hand cars, but traditional car companies and new car-making forces have also entered this field, with BYD, Weilai, and Ideal all launching high-quality second-hand car business. Taking NIO as an example, the financial report for the third quarter of last year showed that the revenue of NIO's other businesses (including second-hand car sales) increased by 55% year-on-year.
Provision of service for increment
However, in the face of the large number of second-hand cars that will be generated by the "trade-in", how to increase the overall transaction volume of the second-hand car market has become the focus of attention.
Lang Xuehong once said that judging from the consumer car purchase data released by relevant institutions, the current proportion of new car purchases is about 50%, and the sum of additional purchases and replacements accounts for about 50%, of which replacements account for about 40%. Last year, the domestic consumption of new cars was about 25 million, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Based on this scale, the market size of the trade-in is about 10 million units. At the same time, the Action Plan proposes that by 2027, the transaction volume of used cars will increase by 45% compared to 2023. This means that 27 million used vehicles will be traded. In this regard, Wang Xiaoyu, senior vice president of Guazi second-hand car, said: "According to such a clear and huge growth target, opportunities and challenges coexist for the second-hand car industry. It has become even more important to continue to tap the market potential and stimulate consumers' enthusiasm for car purchases. ”
In fact, in addition to external factors such as new car price reductions, the opaque information of the second-hand car market, lack of norms, and false detection have also become problems that need to be solved urgently in the industry. "In the operation of second-hand car practitioners, consumers should be able to 'dare to buy and use with confidence'. Cai Haiyuan, vice president of the Beijing Automobile Dealers Industry Association, believes that the premise of "dare to buy" is that the condition of the car is transparent, and consumers understand the real condition of the car, even if the vehicle has problems and knows where to repair and how much the repair cost is, so as to buy a car with peace of mind. "Rest assured" is after-sales service, only let consumers buy at ease, no worries in the future in the car, so that consumers trust the second-hand car industry, in order to make the entire industry active.
It is understood that the head second-hand car companies and platforms have taken the lead in the trial. Among them, in March this year, Guazi second-hand cars upgraded to "try for 7 days before buying a car" and launched an "express" car delivery service, and consumers in more than 200 cities across the country experienced a one-stop second-hand car e-commerce service of car selection, test and purchase. Wang Xiaoyu said that allowing users to decide whether to buy after a free test drive for 7 days not only ensures full transparency of the car's condition, but also effectively promotes the efficiency of consumers' decision-making. At the same time, it provides free door-to-door delivery and on-site procedures to provide convenience for users, and improves inventory turnover through rapid distribution to accelerate the national circulation of second-hand cars.
It is one thing to inspire consumers to buy with confidence and willingness to buy, but it is equally important to find more circulation directions for the second-hand car market. The "Action Plan" proposes to vigorously develop the export business of second-hand cars. "The export of used cars is an important development opportunity. Cai Haiyuan believes that the second-hand car market will be exported at a certain stage. The data shows that since the start of used car exports in 2019, the export volume has continued to rise. In 2021, the export volume of used vehicles was 15,000 units, and in 2022 it rose to 69,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 360%.
Although domestic second-hand car exports have soared, there is still a gap compared with Japan and South Korea. Cai Haiyuan suggested that to further enhance the export competitiveness of second-hand cars in the mainland, we can help second-hand car export enterprises achieve scale through policies such as formulating second-hand car export tax rebates. At the same time, relevant departments can build a docking platform with countries that have a demand for imported second-hand cars, so that the export of second-hand cars can be smoother.
Million-level "elimination" space
While promoting the momentum of second-hand car transactions, the elimination of old cars, which is another key link of "trade-in", will also provide incremental space for new car replacement.
The "Action Plan" mentions that the mandatory scrapping standards for motor vehicles and vehicle safety and environmental protection inspection standards will be strictly implemented, and old cars that meet the mandatory scrapping standards will be eliminated in accordance with laws and regulations. In this regard, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the circulation association, said: "Some old models have not much transaction and circulation value in the second-hand car market, and the residual value of the vehicle may only be a few thousand yuan. If there are policies in place to support the renewal of vehicles at the end of life, these vehicles may enter the end-of-life process, which will not only provide purchase space for new vehicles, but also further reduce pollutant emissions. ”
The incremental space for new cars brought about by the elimination of old cars is very considerable. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Association"), said that the sales volume of the automobile market in 2008 was 5.67 million units, and in 2017 it rose to 24.2 million units, and the sales volume of the automobile market increased explosively. From the perspective of renewal and obsolescence, it has now entered the peak stage of obsolescence. According to the calculation of the 15-year scrapping period of vehicles, the number of passenger cars scrapped last year was about 5.67 million, this year is 8 million, and in 2025 it will be 11.33 million. The Action Plan also proposes to increase the recycling of end-of-life vehicles by 2027 compared to 2023. In Cui Dongshu's view: "The proportion of vehicle replacement and scrapping and renewal is relatively high, so scrap renewal and replacement have become the main growth driver of the auto market." ”
In 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the "Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Forwarding the Implementation Plan of the Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments to Promote the Expansion of Domestic Demand and Encourage the Trade-in of Automobile and Household Appliances" proposed to increase subsidies and speed up the scrapping and renewal of old cars, and give subsidies ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan. According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, as of November 24 of that year, 6,990 old cars applied for subsidies nationwide in 2009, driving new car consumption to 1 billion yuan. In December of the same year, the subsidy amount was raised to 5,000-18,000 yuan. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, in 2010, a total of 459,000 vehicles were subsidized for car trade-in, and 6.41 billion yuan of subsidy funds were issued, driving the consumption of new cars by 49.6 billion yuan. "At present, the scrapping standard of automobiles is about 1500-2000 yuan/ton, and if the amount of scrapping subsidies is increased, it will further accelerate the elimination of old vehicles. An insider in the auto dismantling industry told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Yang Liu Xiaomeng