A new round of property market stimulus plans is about to come out, focusing on three directions: delivery, buying a house, and housing

On Friday night, there was a high-profile meeting on real estate, and there was a lot of space about real estate.

Due to the inconvenience of specific vocabulary articles, I briefly summarized two parts:

First, characterize real estate.

What kind of industry is real estate?

At the meeting, it was said that "the real estate industry chain is long and wide-ranging, which is related to the vital interests of the people and the overall situation of economic and social development." ”

What has been the trend of real estate policy in the past year?

A series of measures to ensure the delivery of buildings and reduce mortgage interest rates have maintained the bottom line of no systemic risk.

These measures have also been seen by everyone, the stock of housing loans has been lowered, the 5-year LPR has been lowered, the guaranteed delivery of buildings has been promoted, the area of real estate completions has been growing, the purchase and loan restrictions are basically gone, and there are more and more relaxation policies.

However, it is not enough.

So, second, what's next?

The original words are "to further optimize the real estate policy, continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and ensuring stability, further promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, systematically plan relevant support policies, effectively stimulate potential demand, and increase the supply of high-quality housing"

"It is necessary to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, accelerate the improvement of the housing supply system of "market + security", reform the basic system related to commercial housing, and strive to build a new model of real estate development. ”

Yes, the key words are the following: guaranteed delivery, urban real estate financing mechanism, stimulating potential demand, "market + guarantee"...

Let's look at the literal meaning first, and I'll break it down for you later.

There is so much space involved in the property market, and it is characterized as "related to the overall situation of economic and social development", why is real estate put in such an important position?

This can only show that no matter how strong the controversy from the outside world has been in the past two years, whether it is optimistic or bearish on housing prices, it cannot change the fact that real estate is a pillar industry (especially at this point in time at the beginning of 2024).

According to data from Debang Securities, the real estate industry has almost 24.6 trillion yuan to the national economy, accounting for 20.3% of GDP.

According to the estimation of the feasibility study think tank, in 2022 alone, the number of real estate development-related employees will drop from 2.1 million to 1.7 million.

As a result, the upstream and downstream industries of real estate development have reduced 6 million jobs, affecting 15 million to 20 million people in the entire industry chain.

Engaged in investment and development, development and construction, engineering, supply of raw materials, selling steel, cement and glass coatings, selling houses as intermediary real estate consultants, engaged in decoration, sticking to floor tiles and selling furniture and household appliances.

Even if you are not engaged in real estate, your relatives and friends, your customers, and the people you deal with must be doing work related to real estate prosperity.

The key question is this, such an important industry, there are waves of policies, why continue to support?

Because... It's a bit like Adou - can't help it.

The economic data released by the Bureau of Statistics for January and February a few days ago, such as exports, consumption, and industrial data, performed well, but real estate dragged down the recovery.

In the first two months, the absolute value of real estate sales area and amount was a new low in the same period in the past seven years (excluding the impact of the epidemic in 2020), and the year-on-year decline was 12 pcts and 26 pcts higher than that in January and February 2023, respectively, which was the highest point in the same period in the past seven years (excluding the impact of the epidemic in 2020).

Behind the decline in transactions is the accelerated decline in housing prices.

From January to February, the sales amount of commercial housing fell by more than the area.

The sales amount is the purchase price of the deposit + down payment + mortgage, and the sales area is how much the house has been sold, and the sales volume has dropped more, which can only show that real estate companies are "exchanging price for quantity".

In fact, the average transaction price of commercial housing has fallen for four consecutive months, and the average transaction price of residential housing from January to February has also decreased by 10.5% compared with the same period in 2023.

That's right, real estate is now a double kill of quantity and price.

Real estate is the pillar, and it is still declining at the beginning of 2024, and the original means are not enough, which is the background of the new round of property market support policies.

What is the next step?

There are so many nouns, and there is no need to say them one by one, and individuals are grouped into three major directions:

1. Matters related to the delivery of the house.

There is no doubt that the delivery of the building is put in the first place.

In the last issue, when talking about purchase restrictions, Lan Bai told everyone this point of view, and the top priority of real estate at present is to ensure that all off-plan properties can be completed smoothly.

As long as buyers are still afraid of off-plan housing, the property market has no chance of bottoming out, and any normal person would rather wait and see than buy a house with an unknown fate with his life savings.

I have tried many ways to guarantee the delivery of the building, such as the local bailout fund and the central bank's loan for the delivery of the building, which is not enough.

Therefore, the phrase "promoting the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism is particularly emphasized", and the local government and banks quickly submit for approval and review, work overtime, and put projects that can be loaned, and prohibit the misappropriation of real estate enterprises.

Compared with bailout funds and top-down loans, the city's whitelist mechanism is fast, has fewer layers and has a large driving force, which may work wonders and accelerate the completion of off-plan properties this year.

2. Buying a house.

Delivery is to reassure those who have already bought a house, but for those who have not bought a house, in addition to letting go of their worries about off-plan housing, it is more important to provide more discounts.

Does the mortgage interest rate count?

All purchase restrictions are opened, and all sales and loan restrictions are canceled.

Deed tax reduction, shortening of the VAT period for second-hand housing, subsidies for buying a house and consumption vouchers, and convenience for children to go to school, of course.

But a very important issue is that the above methods have been used almost in the past year.

Since it was said at the meeting that it was necessary to "effectively stimulate", let's ride a donkey to read the record book, look at the city where everyone is located, and what cards can be played by the demand-side policy.

Anyway, no matter whether you send money or save money, in 2024, the discount for buying a house will be bigger and bigger.

3. Matters related to housing.

Handing over and buying a house can only treat the symptoms, not the root cause.

As a pillar industry, real estate has fallen to this point because of the long-term housing system's "heavy sales, light leasing", "high leverage, high debt, and high turnover".

If these two core problems are not solved, even if the property market can be saved, and the previous set of ten cups and five covers of the financial game is still played, then history will only continue to repeat.

Therefore, at the end of the meeting, the focus was on "market + security" to reform the basic system related to commercial housing.

This is what everyone has been saying, there is no price limit for commercial housing, there is no limit to purchase, and there is money to buy it casually, but the premise is that in densely populated megacities, it is necessary to build a large number of affordable housing that low-income groups can live in.

Let the market belong to the market, and the guarantee will be guaranteed.

On this basis, developers have gradually abandoned the high-leverage development model, and local governments have restrained their impulses to sell land, and the pre-sale system has bid farewell to the historical stage.

Handing over a house, buying a house, and housing are the three things that are the roadmap for real estate in 2024.