Hot Topic Interpretation: Technology giants make efforts to focus on the commercialization of humanoid robots
Edited by: Peng Shuiping
I. Preface
On Feb. 22, NVIDIA announced that it will host GTc2024 at the San Hokey Convention Center March 18-21, where Huang will unveil the latest breakthroughs in accelerated computing, generative A1 and robotics.
In addition, from the perspective of attendees, Vincent Vanhoucke, Distinguished Scientist and Senior Director of Robotics at Google DeepMind, Aaron Saunders, Chief Technology Officer of Boston Dynamics, and other industry leaders, from the perspective of products, many of the world's leading robotics companies will be showcasing the next generation of robotics products at the event, AgilityRobotics, Boston Dynamics, Disney and Google Companies such as DeepMind will exhibit 25 robots on site, including humanoid robots, industrial manipulators, and more.
2024 is the year of acceleration in the development of humanoid robots, and technology upgrades, product releases, and industrial chain verification will continue to appear. If the results in the field of robotics released by Nvidia exceed expectations, it is expected to bring catalysts to the entire humanoid robot sector, and it is recommended to pay attention to the robot ETF (562500) and its feeder fund (018344/018345), and high-end equipment ETF (516320).
2. Popular interpretation
(1) AI technology is the core driving force for the development of the humanoid robot industry
Humanoid robots are an important carrier of AI, and breakthroughs in AI continue to inject development momentum into the robot industry. At present, the reasons hindering the commercial mass production of humanoid robots include the lack of large-scale application scenarios and many technical problems that need to be solved urgently. On the one hand, the application scenario directly affects the rigidity of the robot demand, and the current humanoid robot application scenario still needs to be explored. On the other hand, humanoid robots are still in a form of relatively simple functions and preliminary intelligence. The core of its solution path is still the improvement of robot functions and intelligence level, supporting robots to move from closed scenes to open scenes, and from single scenes to complex scenes. Improving the level of generalization is the only way for the development of the humanoid robot industry in the future, and we must rely on the progress and development of AI technology, the combination of AI technology and robots, will make up for the shortcomings of the current robots in intelligence, ease of use, and economy, and effectively improve the penetration rate of robots in various industries. In traditional deep learning models, machine intelligence is often limited to specific scenarios, but with the empowerment of AI multimodal large models represented by ChatGPT and PaLM, robots can interact with the real world in multiple modalities, so as to achieve "embodied intelligence" and have the ability to continuously evolve and apply across scenarios. At the NVIDIA GTC2024 conference, it is expected to see new changes in the field of robotics, and the humanoid robot industry will fully benefit from the continuous efforts of technology giants. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress and catalysis of AI large models in the field of humanoid robots in science and technology enterprises.
The industrialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, or it will become the next trillion market. Humanoid robots are one of the most promising directions for the implementation of AI, which can not only liberate humans from low-level and high-risk industries in the future, improve human productivity and work efficiency, but also have a wide range of application scenarios in industry, commerce, home, outer space exploration and other fields. According to Precedence Research data, the global humanoid robot market size will be about $1.62 billion in 2022, and it is expected that the global humanoid robot market size will increase to $28.66 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 33.28% from 2022 to 2032.
Figure 1: Global Humanoid Robot Market Size and Forecast from 2022 to 2032
资料来源:Precedence Research,光大证券
(2) Frequent favorable policies promote the accelerated development of the industry
Domestic policies catalyze frequently, and the importance of humanoid robots to the national innovation-driven development strategy has been gradually established. Judging from the release timeline of humanoid robot-related policies, policies related to humanoid robots have been released intensively since the second half of 2023. On November 2, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", pointing out that humanoid robots are expected to become subversive products after computers, smart phones, and new energy vehicles, and put forward the goal of mass production of complete products in 2025, breaking through key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, and limbs". In addition, according to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology, the Shanghai Government Network, Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai and many places have set up humanoid robot industrial parks, according to Beijing Daily, the target scale of 10 billion yuan of Beijing Robot Industry Development Investment Fund registered in the Economic Development Zone.
In 2023, domestic ontology factories will release prototypes one after another, and they are currently at the dawn of industrialization. From July to October 2023, Fourier, Yushu, Zhiyuan, and Xiaopeng successively released humanoid robot prototypes. There are more than 20 domestic humanoid robot manufacturers, most of which will release humanoid robot products in 2023, and some of them have taken the lead in entering the mass production stage. In the context of the vigorous investment of a number of technology companies, the commercialization process of humanoid robots in mainland China is expected to accelerate.
(3) Under the trend of cost reduction, the opportunities of domestic supply chain can be expected
Hardware technology innovation and cost control are the core logic of the current humanoid robot track, China has a mature manufacturing industry chain, and Made in China is a powerful solution to reduce costs. One of the biggest obstacles to the commercialization of humanoid robots is their high cost. Mainland enterprises have already had successful experience in the development of new energy vehicles, and have accumulated obvious advantages in intelligent driving, software and hardware integration, industrial chain cost reduction and integration, and rapid iteration of models. In the process of the development of humanoid robots, domestic supply chain enterprises still have similar advantages in customer response, iteration speed, differentiation and cost reduction.
Driven by the industrialization and cost reduction of enterprises represented by humanoid robots such as Tesla, domestic manufacturers have quickly cut into multiple manufacturing links with the help of supply chain scale advantages and cost advantages, and are expected to usher in the best opportunity for domestic substitution, and continue to pay attention to the development of domestic parts such as motors, reducers, lead screws, and sensors. According to the agency's calculations, from the perspective of cost composition, the three major parts of automatic control (drive control and actuator components) account for nearly 1/3, various sensors account for 1/3, and software accounts for nearly 1/3. Considering the three major factors of "single machine value + domestic substitution + technical barriers", we focus on the "3+3" core components of humanoid robots: the first 3 refers to the three major parts of automatic control: motor electronic control + actuator (harmonic reducer, planetary roller screw); Technological breakthroughs and innovations in these hardware fields, as well as the progress of domestic substitution, deserve continuous attention.
Figure 2: Humanoid robot industry chain diagram
Source: Guohai Securities
1. Robot ETF (562500) and its feeder fund (018344/018345): The robot ETF tracks the CSI Robot Index (index code: H30590.HK). CSI) selects system solution providers, digital workshop and production line system integrators, automation equipment manufacturers, automation parts manufacturers and other related companies as sample stocks to reflect the trend of stocks related to the robot industry.
2. Artificial Intelligence AIETF (515070) and its feeder fund (008585/008586): The Artificial Intelligence AIETF tracks the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index (index code: 930713.CSI, index abbreviation: CS Artificial Intelligence) and selects representative companies from the companies that provide basic resources, technology and application support for artificial intelligence as sample stocks, reflecting the overall performance of artificial intelligence theme companies. The index is included in the IOSCO Financial Benchmarks Principles Assurance Report as at 30 September 2018.
Source: Everbright Securities, CITIC Securities, Guohai Securities, Wind, as of February 23, 2024. The risk level of the above products is R4 (medium and high risk), all of which are index funds, and there are major risks such as deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the stock market, fluctuation of the underlying index, deviation of the return of the fund portfolio from the return of the underlying index, and the risk of deviation from the performance of the target ETF in the feeder fund, and the historical performance of the market or related products is not indicative of the future. Subscription: A fund will be charged a one-time subscription fee with no sales service fee when subscribing, while Class C will have no subscription fee but a sales service fee. There may be a big difference in the long-term performance of the two due to different fees and establishment times, etc., please refer to the product periodic report for details. In addition, Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises ETF and Hang Seng Dividend ETF are overseas securities investment funds, which mainly invest in financial instruments with good liquidity in the Hong Kong securities market. In addition to the general investment risks such as market fluctuation risks similar to those of domestic securities investment funds, the Fund is also exposed to special investment risks faced by overseas securities market investments, such as exchange rate risk and Hong Kong market risk. Cross-border ETFs implement the T+0 rotation trading mechanism, which shortens the capital operation cycle, which may bring short-term volatility risks. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read the fund's "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the fund, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgment and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently bear the investment risk.
For ETF funds, investors investing in the Fund are exposed to potential risks such as tracking error control not reaching the agreed target, suspension of services by index compilers, suspension of trading of constituent bonds, the risk of deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the stock market, the risk of fluctuation of the underlying index, the risk of deviation between the return of the fund's portfolio and the return of the underlying index, the risk of change in the underlying index, the risk of discount and premium of the trading price of the fund shares in the secondary market, the risk of error in the subscription and redemption list, the risk of incorrect decision-making with reference to IOPV and the calculation of IOPV, Delisting risk, the risk of failure of investors' subscription and redemption, the risk of realizing the redemption consideration of fund shares, the risk of derivatives investment, etc.
For ETF feeder funds, the fund's assets are mainly invested in the target ETF, and in most cases a high proportion of target ETF investment will be maintained, and the net value of the fund may fluctuate with the net value of the target ETF, and the risks associated with the target ETF may directly or indirectly become the risks of the ETF feeder fund. The specific risks of ETF feeder funds also include: tracking deviation risk, risk of performance difference with the target ETF, risk of discontinuation of services by the index compiler, risk of change of the underlying index, risk of suspension or default of constituent bonds, etc.
This material is not intended as any legal document, the views are for reference only, all information or opinions expressed in the material do not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and our company does not make any guarantee for the final action advice on the content of the material. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. The market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.
National Business Daily