The market at the 3,000-point mark fluctuated, and the heat of the favorable policy direction increased
Edited: Ye Feng
On Monday, A-shares fluctuated and fell, the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1% to stop 8 consecutive yang, falling back below 3,000 points, banking, insurance, coal, electricity, oil, liquor fell first; theme stocks are relatively active, robot concept stocks are blowing out across the board, machinery, automobiles, home appliances are among the top gainers, and more than 3,600 shares in the whole market are rising.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.93% at 2,977.02 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.37%. The market turnover was 997.61 billion yuan, a new high after the holiday, and the actual net selling of northbound funds was 1.313 billion yuan.
Source: Wind
At the 3,000-point mark, the trend of active funds flowing into broad-based ETFs is also slowing down, and A-shares have short-term fluctuations, but there is no shortage of hot spots in the market, and favorable policies have become the direction of capital chasing. Last Friday's meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "promoting a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods", mainly home appliances and automobiles.
Source: Wind
Referring to the previous home appliance subsidy policies such as home appliances going to the countryside, trade-in, and two rounds of energy efficiency subsidies, the domestic sales of household appliances have increased significantly. At present, the main categories of the mainland home appliance market have entered a mature stage, and the market fundamentals have gradually shifted from new demand to updated demand.
The previous trade-in policy has well driven the consumer demand for household appliances. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, during the five-year implementation of the trade-in policy in 2009, 300.4 billion yuan of demand was stimulated by 37.5 billion yuan of subsidies, and a total of 83.733 million old household appliances were recycled and 81.296 million new household appliances were sold.
Considering that the peak sales of household appliances driven by household appliances going to the countryside, trade-in, and energy efficiency subsidies from 2009 to 2013 have entered the renewal cycle, in 2024, with the gradual recovery of the macroeconomy and the promotion of consumption subsidies and trade-in policies in many places, the demand for household appliances is expected to gradually pick up.
According to the 2024 Spring Festival consumption data released by Suning Tesco, the number of trade-in orders for home appliances during the Spring Festival holiday tripled year-on-year, and the air conditioning market showed signs of recovery. According to AVC's production scheduling monitoring data, the total production of household air conditioners in March 2024 will be 20.32 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%.
Previously, considering the weak real estate data and concerns about the lack of consumer purchasing power, the market expected that the demand for air conditioning will weaken in the future, but with the policy support for the trade-in and the high increase in industry production to reflect the resilience of demand, the home appliance ETF (159996) has the opportunity to repair the valuation.
In terms of automobiles, according to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, passenger cars will account for 56% of the purchase in 2023 (11% additional purchase and 45% additional purchase). From the perspective of replacement prices and model change trends, consumption upgrading has become the main trend of the car replacement market, with the purchase price of cars before replacement mainly concentrated in 10-150,000 yuan, accounting for 30.9%, and the purchase price of cars after replacement mainly concentrated in 15-300,000 yuan, accounting for 41.6%. If a new round of trade-in policy is implemented, it is expected to promote the growth of trade-in demand.
Source: Wind
In the short term, according to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, the retail market of narrow passenger cars in February is expected to be about 1.15 million units, -43.5% month-on-month, showing a regular seasonal trend, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be about 380,000 units, -43.0% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of about 33.0%. There are only 18 working days in February, and many companies will take more vacations around the Spring Festival due to the off-season and flexible vacations in the Spring Festival, and the effective production and sales time of passenger cars in February this year is significantly lower than that of the same period last year.
In addition, BYD launched the Qin PLUS/Destroyer 05 Glory Edition model. Among them, the price range of the Qin PLUS DM-i Honor Edition is 79,800 yuan to 125,800 yuan, and the price range of the Qin PLUS EV Honor Edition is 109,800 yuan to 139,800 yuan. This price means that the price of both hybrid and pure electric vehicles is basically gradually approaching or lower than the price of mainstream joint venture fuel models in the market.
Price competition in the market for cars below 100,000 yuan further intensified, and then many brands quickly followed suit and launched different preferential measures for their respective models. The new wave of price war is intensifying, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market is aggravated, which is not conducive to the release of terminal demand in the short term. After the follow-up trade-in policy is implemented, the superimposed price attractiveness will be enhanced, and targets such as auto ETF (516110) are expected to benefit from fundamental repair.
Boosted by the good news of the policy, the industrial machine tool sector rose 5.78% on February 26.
Source: Wind
On February 23, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission pointed out that it is necessary to promote the renewal and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment. This means that the scope of this trade-in includes not only traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, but also various production equipment such as machine tools, boilers, and paint equipment.
From the perspective of the update cycle of industrial machine tools, the update cycle of traditional industrial machine tools is about 8-10 years. According to the 10-year calculation, the last round of consumption peak was 2011-2014, and the current stage is entering a new round of replacement cycle. Boosted by favorable policy factors, the consumer demand for industrial machine tools is expected to grow in recent years.
Source: Wind, National Bureau of Statistics, Yuanda Information and Securities Research Institute
Industrial machine tools are the cornerstone of industrial modernization and the basic industry related to national strategic security and overall development. According to the data of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), in 2022, the output value and consumption value of industrial machine tools in mainland China accounted for 32% of the global proportion, and both ranked first in the world. However, the high-end localization rate of industrial machine tools is less than 10%, and the industry as a whole is large but not strong. In recent years, driven by manufacturing upgrading, independent controllability and policy design, the development of the domestic industrial machine tool industry has ushered in high-end breakthrough opportunities.
The downstream of the industrial machine tool sector mainly includes electronics, automobiles, aerospace and other fields. In the past few years, the industrial machine tool market has been affected by the impact of downstream economic fluctuations. Looking forward to 2024, driven by the recovery of the manufacturing industry and the overseas demand for industrial machine tools, and the downstream pro-cyclical recovery trend, the prosperity of the industrial machine tool sector is expected to rebound. You can pay attention to the layout opportunities of industrial machine tools (159667). However, it is necessary to be wary of the risk of a pullback that may result from a speculative market caused by short-term hot spots and a low willingness of enterprises to actually spend capital.
One of the important downstream applications of industrial machine tools is the robot sector, and the robot industry ETF (159551) also performed well on February 26, closing up 5.63%.
Source: Wind
On the news side, on February 24, Tesla shared a new video through its social media account to show the smooth walking ability of the Optimus humanoid robot it is developing. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla has released Optimus videos three times, and the performance has continued to be iteratively upgraded. Previously, Nvidia announced that it would host its GTC2024 conference at the San Jose Convention Center from March 18 to 21. At that time, 25 robots will be exhibited at the site, including humanoid robots, robotic arms, etc.
A few days ago, UBTECH released a training video of the industrial version of the humanoid robot Walker S entering the assembly workshop of NIO's second advanced manufacturing base for the first time. Walker S is UBTECH's humanoid robot for industrial use, with a height of 1.7 meters, a more human-like appearance and proportions, and a replaceable end effector, which can achieve precise and safe synchronous operations in the factory assembly line. According to the video, the Walker S has completed a series of tasks well.
As a high-end discrete manufacturing scenario, the automotive manufacturing field has high requirements for order response and production scheduling, so it is difficult for traditional industrial robots to cover the entire industrial chain of automobile manufacturing. In contrast, humanoid robots are highly versatile, so they are expected to quickly penetrate discrete manufacturing scenarios such as automobiles to replace manual work. With the further development of large models, the intelligent capabilities of humanoid robots may continue to improve, and the application scenarios are expected to be further expanded. You can pay attention to the allocation opportunities of robot industry ETFs (159551).
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National Business Daily