The Fed's interest rate cut will be postponed again? Goldman Sachs lowered its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut

Text: Wang Mao, senior editor of Tsinghua Financial Review

After the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January 2024 interest rate meeting, when exactly will the Fed start cutting interest rates in 2024, and how many times will it cut interest rates? Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates starting in June and cutting rates four times this year, instead of the five previously predicted. In addition, the Fed's decision to stress test some regional banks in 2024 has also attracted market attention

When will the Fed cut interest rates, and how many times?

On February 23, Eastern time, Goldman Sachs lowered its expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, expecting four rate cuts in 2024, in June, July, September and December, compared with the previous expectation of five rate cuts.          

On the same day, Fed Governor Waller spoke on the economic outlook, expecting a rate cut in the United States in 2024, but not urgently, the Fed will be closely monitoring inflation data in the coming months, and a few months later should not have much of an impact.

In the early morning of February 22, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest interest rate meeting, which detailed the Fed officials' research and judgment on the United States, financial conditions, and the path of monetary policy, which may set the tone for the Fed's monetary policy in 2024.

The minutes showed that most Fed officials expressed concern about the option of an "earlier rate cut", believing that the risk of such an action was significantly higher than "keeping interest rates high".

Fed officials are still watching the trajectory of inflation, with some concerned that progress toward the central bank's 2% target could stall, the minutes showed. Most officials believe that borrowing costs need to be at their peak for some time, and the exact timing of the first rate cut remains unclear. However, Fed officials generally believe that the current monetary policy rate may have reached the peak of the current rate hike cycle, and they said that the risk of inflation continuing to rise is reduced.

In addition, Fed officials at the meeting said that the decline in inflation in 2023 and the growing signs of a balance between supply and demand in the product and labor markets suggest that the benchmark interest rate may be at its peak.

While there are still doubts about when the Fed will start cutting interest rates, a rate cut in 2024 seems to be a foregone conclusion for now, and it is worth preparing now to make the necessary asset allocation adjustments

In 2024, the Federal Reserve will conduct stress tests on some regional banks

In addition to focusing on when the Fed will start cutting interest rates, the Fed's stress tests on some regional banks have also attracted market attention. According to Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve will test the ability of banks to withstand broader potential shocks in 2024 after the collapse of several regional banks in the United States, and this stress test is the first annual test since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023, covering 32 banks with assets as low as $100 billion.

U.S. regulators are "keeping a close eye on" the risks in commercial real estate loans and have already begun to downgrade financially stressed banks' regulatory ratings.

The reason why the outside world is concerned about the Fed's stress test of some regional banks is that the run and collapse of some regional banks in the United States in 2023 have triggered market panic, and the market is worried that if it is not properly handled, there may be problems in the relevant banking industry in the United States, and even greater volatility. The Fed is actively conducting stress tests to prevent problems before they occur, which is good for the banking and financial sectors.

This article is edited by Wang Mao     

Editor-in-charge丨Ding Kaiyan

Proofreading丨Lan Yinfan

Preliminary trial丨Xu Lanying

Final Review丨Zhang Wei   

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#202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}